Hoping it doesn't get too soft for Await The Dawn. He won his debut on soft/heavy ground but that race doesn't appear to have amounted to much, and is going up to 12f for the first time. Don't think that would be a problem unless it becomes a real slog, as Drunken Sailor bounced back to form last time and is at home on soft ground, and the softer the better for Poet who will probably try and force things from the front.

Laaheb should also be fine on the ground, as should Harris Tweed and maybe Kings Gambit. Rest of them either untried or poor efforts when soft has been in description. According to RP spotlight, Campanologist acts on soft yet looking through his form on Sporting Life the word soft doesn't appear in the going description of races he has won/placed. They don't have German races and just seen on Racing Post form he won a race in Germany on soft, didn't seem a very good one and the rare occasions he has raced on soft ground in the UK has been well beaten.

ATD looks set to go off at more cramped odds than Harbinger last year, who probably had a better level of form. Having said that, last years renewal was probably stronger considering the ground was suitable for more of the horses.


Saturdays picksPolydamos E/W. Has ran on softish ground and should have more to give.
Await The Dawn, (see what I've wrote at the top of the post) or if you don't trust the favourites on this dodgy ground Laaheb E/W at a fairly big price.
Bewitched - will love the ground and is a battling performer, with luck in running should definitely be there late on/
Nasri - E/W. Big field here and won't be much in it but wouldn't be surprising to see sprint king Dandy Nicholls get the best out of him.
Modun - apparently a group performer in the making (as was Apache yesterday...) but Sir Michael is a lot less flashy with his entries and unless he thought a lot of the horse he wouldn't be in for the Irish Leger etc. If he handles the ground, should win.
Elyadi - runs off a light weight and will definitely stay the trip, had a prep run over hurdles so should be fit enough. Overturn might not be fully effective over this marathon on soft ground.

5.00 Taqleed 8/1 EW

Gets soft ground it wants tomorrow, takes awhile to ready so will have needed that first run, it ran to 103 off 95 last year it is now on 94 and has had the winter to get stronger

Heddwyn 14/1 EW

Can't not back this with the formlines it has, its second run was 2nd to London Stripe with Power Series back in 3rd both ended up with good form to Dandino last year, Heddwyn's last run in 2010 was coming 3rd beind Green Destiny on heavy ground who of course was expected to hack up today, Agony And Ecstasy was 2nd in that and in its next two races was 2nd in a Listed race in France and then won a Class 1 Listed race here on AW, Heddwyn has come back on AW for its first run of the year with a close 2nd ahead of Point North.

4.25 Fathsta 28/1 EW and 6/1 5 places

Won a pretty poor class 3 race this season and had two okay runs in handicaps, heavily eased under female claimer when beaten 3 lengths last time, reason why I am backing it though is its last run over 6f on soft ground that was in a big handicap at York on its last run of the season, it hacked up that day on soft ground winning by 3 length and eased at the finish it runs off 4lbs higher tomorrow an should be in the mix if in that mood again.

3.45 Dalghar 16/1 EW tomorrow

Wasn't going risk missing out after backing it twice last year after it got beat over 7f by the top class Sahpresa, always seemed to find one too good last year but at the price a place wouldn't be bad.

Also have a 66/1 EW nibble @ ante post on Monsieur Chevalier who I didn't think would be running again.

May double Await The Dawn with Margot Did (Ayr 2.20)

Anyone fancy taking on Await The Dawn get on Betfair now, the next horse in the betting is Passion For Gold @ 13/1, Drunken Sailor 14s, Poet 13.5/1

Final bet of the meeting to rectify a poor Ascot.
Win Lay Await The Dawn
Place Lay Await The Dawn.
Not won over the distance, nor in the class. A few front runners in the race to ensure a decent gallop.

Harris Tweed has pattern and conditions form over further
Laheeb has C/D form on soft
Passion For Gold has group 1 winning form
Campanologist has C/D form on soft and Group 1 form over the distance.

Throw in Drunken sailor who has conditions and stamina.
Poet will bounce.

Quote: Live Wired " Campanologist has C/D form on soft '" Erm, no he doesn't. His good form at ascot is on fast ground. His one run at Ascot on gd/sft was in the 2007 Royal Lodge and he only beat one home. horses.sportinglife.com/Horse_Pr ... 09,00.html He won the King Edward here, but also ran here the year after in this race and was beaten by the somewhat average Bronze Cannon.

Quote: Live Wired " Campanologist has C/D form on soft '" Erm, no he doesn't. His good form at ascot is on fast ground. His one run at Ascot on gd/sft was in the 2007 Royal Lodge and he only beat one home. horses.sportinglife.com/Horse_Pr ... 09,00.html He won the King Edward here, but also ran here the year after in this race and was beaten by the somewhat average Bronze Cannon.

Not saying he wont win, his rating says he should. But you are betting a horse to do something he's not done before, ie, win a group 2 and over a distance.

His 2 group race wins have shown that of the beaten horses, only 1 has won, 2 have placed and 10 have unplaced.

8/11... madness i tell thee

Anyway, well done to the winners this week. Haydock Park for me tonight with Tom Jones on stage after racing

And I shall leave you with Hull KR @ 7/2

I dipped my toe in at evens, then had a bit more at 4/5. Highly unlikely I'll be investing any more at 8/11 or 4/6

Can somebody give me some tips for today, for my lucky 15. Only had one winner over the 4 days. Need some profit today. Cheers. (it's not EW)

Bu99er - Delegator has been withdrawn. Had this in a patent. How does this affect my bet?

Single win part of the bet refunded.
you have a double and 2 singles running for you.
If both win, you in effect have the 7 bets up
if 1 wins, you have a single win, your refunded single and a double;
ie; £10 win patent with 1 winner @5/1, 1 loser and 1 non runner

£10 x 5/1 returns £60
£10 x 5/1 x 0 ( non runner) returns £60
£10 x non runner returns £10....... making a grand return of £130

Cheers LW