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Update Monday 30th July

We all knew the importance of yesterday’s home game against Oldham but quite how significant that win was can really be seen when looking at the projected outcomes over the remaining seven games. My ‘best guesses’ as to who will win in the remaining fixtures shown below are listed in red. After beating Oldham, we now have a very realistic chance of finishing third.

Team & Pts........Diff & Rank......Round 20..............Round 21..........Round 22...............Round 23.................Round 24................Round 25.............Round 26.............Final Points & Rank
Bradford 34...........+620 (1).......Whitehaven (H)......N Wales (H).......Workington (H).........Keighley (H)...........W Wales (A).........Oldham (A)..........Hemel (H)..............48 (1)
York 34.................+544 (2).......N Wales (H)...........W Wales (A).....Hunslet (H)..............Workington (A).......Oldham (H)............Hemel (A)...........Whitehaven (H).......48 (2)
Workington 26 ......+276 (5).......Keighley (H)..........Coventry (H).......Bradford (A).............York (H).................Newcastle (A)........London (H)..........Dons (A)................34 (4)
Whitehaven 26......+195 (7).......Bradford (A)..........Oldham (A)..........Dons (H)..................Hemel (A)..............Hunslet (H)...........Coventry (A)........York ((A)................34 (5)
Oldham 24.............+443 (3)......Hemel (A).............Whitehaven (H)....Newcastle (A).........Coventry (H)...........York (A).................Bradford (H)........London (A).............34 (6)
Dons 24.................+281 (4)......Coventry (A)...........London (H).........Whitehaven (A)........Newcastle (H)........Keighley (A)...........N Wales (A).......Workington (H).......36 (3)
Hunslet 24..............+99 (icon_cool.gif.......W Wales (A)..........Hemel (H)..........York (A)..................London (H).............Whitehaven (A).......Newcastle (H).....Coventry (A)..........34 (7)
Keighley 20...........+196 (6)......Workington (A).......Newcastle (H).....London (A)..............Bradford (A)............Dons (H)................W Wales (A).......N Wales (H)..........28 (icon_cool.gif

It’s going to remain incredibly close. Everything will almost certainly go down to the last matches of the season when we’re at home to Workington. Providing we only lose one of our other remaining games (possibly at Whitehaven) a win against Workington could mean we’d finish third, a loss to Workington would possibly mean we’d be relying on points difference to keep us in the top five. In fact, this game could be the decider in who finishes third and fourth, and consequently who has home advantage in the play-offs although Oldham's superior points difference may mean the loser will finish 5th, with a visit to either Bradford or York.

Of course, these projections rely on our rivals dropping points along the way. We very much need Bradford and York to keep winning to deprive our rivals of points. Thirty six points seems to be the ‘magic number’ for third place.

What is stopping teams reaching 36 points?

Oldham would have to beat Bradford (H) or York (A) to reach 36 points.
Whitehaven would need to beat either Bradford (A), York (A), or Oldham (A) to reach 36 points. From our point of view, an Oldham win in Round 21 seems preferable.
Workington would have to beat Bradford (A), York (H), or the Dons (A) to make 36 points.
Hunslet would need to beat either York (A) or Whitehaven (A) to make 36 points.
Keighley would need to win all their remaining games to get 36 points – including winning at Bradford and Workington.

Key games to help the Dons

Round 20 We need Keighley to beat Workington and Bradford to beat Whitehaven. A defeat for Workington would mess them up quite a lot. Come on Keighley!
Round 21 Oldham to beat Whitehaven is a slightly better result for us.
Round 22 Bradford must beat Workington at home and York must beat Hunslet at home. A Dons win at Whitehaven would be huge!
Round 23 York need to win at Workington.
Round 24 York must beat Oldham at home. A Whitehaven win against Hunslet looks best as this will help stop Hunslet from getting 36 points.
Round 25 Bradford need to win at Oldham. We could do with Newcastle winning at Hunslet.
Round 26 York must beat Whitehaven at home or else Whitehaven could get 36 points. Our game against Workington is massive!

Apologies for the table above not being properly aligned. I prepared it as a Word document originally but you can't copy tables into the forum. We'll have another look at how things stand after next weekend's games.

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I've always had a soft spot for Donny, so I often pop on here from the Bulls board just to catch up on what you're doing. Can I just say that as a total nerd I love this thread.

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Quote: Pumpetypump "I've always had a soft spot for Donny, so I often pop on here from the Bulls board just to catch up on what you're doing. Can I just say that as a total nerd I love this thread.'"

Thanks for visiting us Pumpetypump. I'm a total nerd too which is probably why I've spent all morning sorting out my last post. It's good fun speculating. It's turned out to be a fascinating season between some very evenly matched sides, with York and your boys being some way ahead of the rest. Good luck for the rest of the season. We need you to beat Whitehaven, Workington and Oldham and put a hole in their points difference please! icon_wink.gif

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Quote: Double Movement "Update Monday 30th July

We all knew the importance of yesterday’s home game against Oldham but quite how significant that win was can really be seen when looking at the projected outcomes over the remaining seven games. My ‘best guesses’ as to who will win in the remaining fixtures shown below are listed in red. After beating Oldham, we now have a very realistic chance of finishing third.

Team & Pts........Diff & Rank......Round 20..............Round 21..........Round 22...............Round 23.................Round 24................Round 25.............Round 26.............Final Points & Rank
Bradford 34...........+620 (1).......Whitehaven (H)......N Wales (H).......Workington (H).........Keighley (H)...........W Wales (A).........Oldham (A)..........Hemel (H)..............48 (1)
York 34.................+544 (2).......N Wales (H)...........W Wales (A).....Hunslet (H)..............Workington (A).......Oldham (H)............Hemel (A)...........Whitehaven (H).......48 (2)
Workington 26 ......+276 (5).......Keighley (H)..........Coventry (H).......Bradford (A).............York (H).................Newcastle (A)........London (H)..........Dons (A)................34 (4)
Whitehaven 26......+195 (7).......Bradford (A)..........Oldham (A)..........Dons (H)..................Hemel (A)..............Hunslet (H)...........Coventry (A)........York ((A)................34 (5)
Oldham 24.............+443 (3)......Hemel (A).............Whitehaven (H)....Newcastle (A).........Coventry (H)...........York (A).................Bradford (H)........London (A).............34 (6)
Dons 24.................+281 (4)......Coventry (A)...........London (H).........Whitehaven (A)........Newcastle (H)........Keighley (A)...........N Wales (A).......Workington (H).......36 (3)
Hunslet 24..............+99 (icon_cool.gif.......W Wales (A)..........Hemel (H)..........York (A)..................London (H).............Whitehaven (A).......Newcastle (H).....Coventry (A)..........34 (7)
Keighley 20...........+196 (6)......Workington (A).......Newcastle (H).....London (A)..............Bradford (A)............Dons (H)................W Wales (A).......N Wales (H)..........28 (icon_cool.gif

It’s going to remain incredibly close. Everything will almost certainly go down to the last matches of the season when we’re at home to Workington. Providing we only lose one of our other remaining games (possibly at Whitehaven) a win against Workington could mean we’d finish third, a loss to Workington would possibly mean we’d be relying on points difference to keep us in the top five. In fact, this game could be the decider in who finishes third and fourth, and consequently who has home advantage in the play-offs although Oldham's superior points difference may mean the loser will finish 5th, with a visit to either Bradford or York.

Of course, these projections rely on our rivals dropping points along the way. We very much need Bradford and York to keep winning to deprive our rivals of points. Thirty six points seems to be the ‘magic number’ for third place.

What is stopping teams reaching 26 points?

Oldham would have to beat Bradford (H) or York (A) to reach 36 points.
Whitehaven would need to beat either Bradford (A), York (A), or Oldham (A) to reach 36 points. From our point of view, an Oldham win in Round 21 seems preferable.
Workington would have to beat Bradford (A), York (H), or the Dons (A) to make 36 points.
Hunslet would need to beat either York (A) or Whitehaven (A) to make 36 points.
Keighley would need to win all their remaining games to get 36 points – including winning at Bradford and Workington.

Key games to help the Dons

Round 20 We need Keighley to beat Workington and Bradford to beat Whitehaven. A defeat for Workington would mess them up quite a lot. Come on Keighley!
Round 21 Oldham to beat Whitehaven is a slightly better result for us.
Round 22 Bradford must beat Workington at home and York must beat Hunslet at home. A Dons win at Whitehaven would be huge!
Round 23 York need to win at Workington.
Round 24 York must beat Oldham at home. A Whitehaven win against Hunslet looks best as this will help stop Hunslet from getting 36 points.
Round 25 Bradford need to win at Oldham. We could do with Newcastle winning at Hunslet.
Round 26 York must beat Whitehaven at home or else Whitehaven could get 36 points. Our game against Workington is massive!

Apologies for the table above not being properly aligned. I prepared it as a Word document originally but you can't copy tables into the forum. We'll have another look at how things stand after next weekend's games.'"


Very well done DM

Agree with everything on there.

but i think we need to win all including Whitehaven away. i probably won't feel easy until we get to the last game having won all before and then winning that one.
but you never know whats going to happen as in 2012 when the top 2 went down to surprising defeats in the next to last games to
give us the chance to win the league.

But i think this league [Top 8] is a different proposition to 2012

all we can do now is keep backing them and hope we go a good run, as SO also says we are. I think we can aswell, as apart from the first 4 matches of the season
we've been up and down form wise. NOW is the perfect time to hit some form.

COYDs

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Bulls 46 Haven 0. West Wales 6 Hunslet 86 today's results, poor old West Wales only had one named sub.


No messing about at Coventry please Dons.

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Update Monday 6th August
Bradford 36...........+666 (1).......N Wales (H).......Workington (H).........Keighley (H)...........W Wales (A).........Oldham (A)..........Hemel (H)..............48 (1)
York 36.................+574 (2).......W Wales (A).....Hunslet (H)..............Workington (A).......Oldham (H)............Hemel (A)...........Whitehaven (H).......48 (2)
Workington 28 ......+298 (5).......Coventry (H).......Bradford (A).............York (H).................Newcastle (A)........London (H)..........Dons (A)................34 (4)
Oldham 26.............+475 (3)......Whitehaven (H)....Newcastle (A).........Coventry (H)...........York (A).................Bradford (H)........London (A).............34 (6)
Dons 26.................+323 (4)......London (H).........Whitehaven (A)........Newcastle (H)........Keighley (A)...........N Wales (A).......Workington (H).......36 (3)
Hunslet 26..............+179 (6).......Hemel (H)..........York (A)..................London (H).............Whitehaven (A).......Newcastle (H).....Coventry (A)..........34 (7)
Whitehaven 26......+149 (7).......Oldham (A)..........Dons (H)..................Hemel (A)..............Hunslet (H)...........Coventry (A)........York ((A)................34 (5)

I've changed the colour coding for today's update. The fixtures in Blue are the expected losers. For example, Workington are expected to lose at Bradford in Round 22, lose at home to York in Round 23, and lose away at the Dons in Round 26.

Nothing much changed after Round 20 with all results going as expected. Round 21 sees one vital gameMUST lose these games or else they will get within the 36 point range. I've got the Dons down to lose at Whitehaven. If we win it would be a huge bonus and see 38 points as a possibility for us. Get all your mates signed up for the bus and lets see if we can win this game! icon_wink.gif

If we do win at Whitehaven, we could be assured of a promotion play-off place regardless of what happens in the last match at home to Workington. That would take the pressure off somewhat. It's not the end of the world if we lose at Whitehaven, it just gives less scope for any slip ups in the rest of the run in. We'd still be on target for third spot. The points difference between us and Worky needs to be kept tabs on too. We need to keep ahead of them in that race.

Bradford and York must keep winning or else it'll change the picture completely but as they've got each other to worry about for the automatic promotion spot, they should both be fully motivated to win all of their remaining games by good margins as points difference could be critical to them too.

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Yes ... York beating Bradford was a huge bonus and will keep both sides honest right until the last game.
The trouble is coming into that game York might need too many points to pip Bradford and rest a few players to the advantage of Whitehaven whom York play.

Oldham v Bradford and Workington v York are problematic too.

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Quote: Stand-Offish "Yes ... York beating Bradford was a huge bonus and will keep both sides honest right until the last game.
The trouble is coming into that game York might need too many points to pip Bradford and rest a few players to the advantage of Whitehaven whom York play.

Oldham v Bradford and Workington v York are problematic too.'"


That's a fair point about York, but Bradford play Hemel in the last round so the points difference between York and Bradford might look quite close on paper before that game. I'm trying to find a good reason for York not to take their foot off the gas! icon_wink.gif

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York ought to close the points difference next weekend as they play West Wales whilst Bradford play Crusaders.

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Quote: Wanderer "York ought to close the points difference next weekend as they play West Wales whilst Bradford play Crusaders.'"

But Bradford play them too in a few weeks ... both away.
So not much change over all.

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Should keep it interesting over the next few weeks.

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How does everyone feel about the current structure? It certainly keeps everything interesting right up until the end of the season but Bradford and York have clearly been the best sides in the league this season. Would it be unfair if they both didn't go up?

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Quote: Double Movement "How does everyone feel about the current structure? It certainly keeps everything interesting right up until the end of the season but Bradford and York have clearly been the best sides in the league this season. Would it be unfair if they both didn't go up?'"

Yes ... but extremely funny!

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Quote: Double Movement "How does everyone feel about the current structure? It certainly keeps everything interesting right up until the end of the season but Bradford and York have clearly been the best sides in the league this season. Would it be unfair if they both didn't go up?'"

Yes. Clearly, I'd prefer we went up but if it's those two it's arguably the right result.

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Quote: Double Movement "How does everyone feel about the current structure? It certainly keeps everything interesting right up until the end of the season but Bradford and York have clearly been the best sides in the league this season. Would it be unfair if they both didn't go up?'"


They both deserve to get promoted on the strength of the seasons results, however sport as we know can be a fickle thing. Either of those two would be odds on to win their respective play off games. I would still love it if we can be in the final game with either of them.

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