Very impressed with your tipping service. But what about Eagles v Broncos. I suspect this is beyond even the best experts!

I also enjoy the pre match analysis. Keep 'em coming!

Hello Poplar,

As always with any selections you can only find 'value' once the bookies publish the odds.

The bookies tend to offer extremely poor value for the perceived 'favourite'. I believe our odds will be something like 8/15 to win, even though we have lost 7 in a row and are playing a team that have won 15 in a row.

History shows that no more than one Championship club per year will defeat a Super League club and this will weigh heavily in a mathematical model.

The handicap is likely to be +12 to +14 in Broncos favour and perhaps +8 per half.

The Bookies aim is to retain all the funds on this three way bet of course as few punters will back the handicap draw.

A lower handicap than 12 (or six per half) would mean that you could simply back the Super League club to outscore a National League club by a converted try in one or both of the two halves and win at near evens, so I don't see the Bookies going for this.

A higher handicap than about 16 would mean that you could simply predict Sheffield to get within three tries to the rival team who tends to leak 30-40 a game, and this is again all too plausible, so I don't see the Bookies going for this either.

A front three of Kaufusi, Lee and Wheeldon with an interchange of the likes of Bryant, Clubb, Rodney and Fairbank and with Fisher or Bishay as the replacement Hooker means we will win a forward oriented game.

I will thus be looking to see these names (Clubb, Rodney and Fairbank) on the team sheeet to go higher than +12 or +8 in the second half. In simple terms, the better teams can provide continuous momentum impetus, by bringing on e.g. a Carvell for a Morley rather than a momentum stopper who is simply there to give someone a rest but provides limited go forward and defense.

If we can only play the lesser forwards, it will take the strength/size advantage away and in a straightforward match between the two sets of outside backs would give Sheffield a greater chance by e.g. putting up Yere against O'Callaghan or having an expert kicker place the ball in uncomfortable positions knowing Dorn is comparatively slow and indecisive when running towards his own line. If Sheffield get momentum then factors like home advantage, confidence etc could then play a bigger part than they would if the home fans are silenced by their team being simply steamrolled from minute one.

What offers me a lot of encouragement as a supporter is that whilst Sheffield have won a lot of games, they have are not defensively excellent and have won 6 times by 8 or less points. Hunslet, Barrow, Doncaster and Workington have all scored 20-28 points versus them. I would expect us to be able to outscore any of these teams. They are not a team who are likely to put someone completely out of the game.

My current thinking is that if the named reserve forwards are available, then we will be looking at a range of 30-38 points, probably the higher end of this range, but we will concede upto 20-24 points. I do not see an equal distribution of points but us getting stronger near the end and scoring more. That is where there could be value.

Without the extra quality on the bench, a London win of 1-12 or a +12 on the handicap for the Eagles will be attractive as I do not see Dollapi, Krasniqi or the academy guys overpowering anyone. Of course I will examine other scenarios, different handicaps etc. It may be advantageous to take e.g. +15 at higher odds than +12 at below evens. You need real value. Not the bookies standard 5/6 on an evens chance!

Cheers
Mark

PS There could be value in the player betting on forwards for this game - I'd expect our backs to be at miserable odds like 4/6 on, but the forwards could easily plough over. Kaufusi must be due a try!

Although its a long time since I stopped betting, I find your analysis very interesting, thank you.

Great post there, right about the Sheffield defence but in some mitigation I will say that the Barrow and Hunslet games were when we played 3 times in a week, a tough ask for a part-time team! A lot of focus is on Sheffield's South Sea Islanders but the key players on Friday for Sheffield will be Brambani, Henderson and Walker. If they can control the game then Sheffield should get close.

Sheffield have an incredibly stable set of player combinations and they are used to winning. I am more inclined to view this as a low-scoring game - like the Featherstone cup-tie - rather than as a 60-point one. It's going to be a fantastic cup-tie IMO.

Like MR says, if Rodney and Clubb aren't reinforcing last week's squad, we won't have any gas off the bench. And if we lack punch up-front, Yere, Armstrong, QLT etc. will challenge our fragile wider defenders ...

Here is a different tip:

Huddersfield Giants to win the league, at a highly attractive 4/1, with Stan James.

They are just one point behind Wigan with worse points difference.

But if you look at five of their six remaining fixtures, you would predict five wins from three home matches v Castleford, Salford and Wakefield and two away games at London and Bradford.

Whilst by comparison Wigan have got St Helens and Catalans away plus Home games v Hull KR, Hull FC and Leeds, and it would be a far bigger ask for the sweep. Given their recent form, which is shaky, it would be a big surprise to win five times from five.

What makes this particularly intriguing is that Huddersfield are still to play at the DW Stadium.

If Huddersfield win, you would then just need them to hold their nerve and beat London, Wakefield and Bradford, with all these teams likely to have no play offs chance by the time they play.

But if Wigan drop two games, Huddersfield would not even need to win at the DW stadium.

Just a thought
Mark

As a pie eater by birth, and looking at Wigans current form, I think you have a very good argument.

I was a bit lazy but have bet £39.55 at 7/2 with Ladbrokes, rather than the better 4/1, for a potential return of £177.98.

Assuming odds of around evens, I will consider betting on Wigan v Huddersfield around match day, thus if I bet £40 and Wigan win and scuppers the Giants chances, then I will get my stake back.

And if the Giants win I will likely pocket £177.98 minus my two stakes, so a nice profit of £100.

Unless Giants screw up bad, but then that is what happens when you are a punter.

I can't see Wigan being much below evens, they have lost at the Giants and the Bookies won't suck any money in if they are too tight when there is a genuine chance of an upset.

Also, I would think Wigan would be prepared to risk missing out on the League Leader's shield for other trophies but no way would Huddersfield miss out their biggest trophy and first top level championship since 1962.

Almost my thoughts precisely (albeit with slight changes in the actual figures). Therefore we're doomed...

We would be without the Soward factor. He can enthuse, organise and win a game on his own. The Eagles players will not have played against a player of his standard. Too close to call IMO.