Are we all assuming we finish above Salford?

Can’t speak for anyone else but Salford to finish 5th

Saints
Wigan
Wire
Hull FC
Castleford
Leeds
Salford
Catalans
Toronto
Wakefield
Hull KR
Huddersfield

If we compare the two squads 2019 vs 2020 we should finish as high as we did last year, our big failing this off season (so far) is the lack of a new prop, but that prop was absent last year too. All we have lost prop wise from 2019 is Tasi and a bit part Westood, we have lost depth rather than quality. The half back situation is obviously a positive on 2019. The key for us will be keeping Clark, Widdop & Austin fit and returning to a style of play & form from H1 last year - There's lots of doom & gloom around, but I am expecting a top 4 finish.

I think overall we are weaker in the centre, Gelling and/or Burrell need to impress me more than my expectations for us to be better in this department than 2019.

Of the other contenders:

Saints: Will be favourites with little squad change, the only variable is the new coach
Wigan: Will be better than 2019 I think with Hastings & Burgess. Top 3 comfortably
Leeds: Who knows? They have recruited well, but losing Merrin still looks a possibility. They have better halves going in to 2020 and their back row looks good but props still an issue. Could be top four, could equally be bottom four.
Hull FC: Have added some good strike with Fonua & Jones. Halves can be a bit hit and miss, so much rests on the season of Sneyd, Connor & Albert. Wouldn't surprise me to see Connor leave mid season causing unrest. Chasing Top 4
Salford: Big ask for them to back up 2019 with Hastings, Jones & others. They have a good coach, but I think they may well drop down to 5th/6th
Castleford: A lot rests on the shoulders of Trueman and Richardson will need to step up I'm expecting mid table
Catalan: Maloney is a great signing, but they have a long way to go to prove they can be consistent enough for a top four spot.
Toronto: Like Leeds, no idea, the travelling may be a problem for them and its a big step up in intensity for SL, so i'm expecting they'll go better in 2021. Lower mid table
Huddersfield, Wakey and KR should all be concerned about the drop.

St Helens
Wigan
Hull FC
Castleford
Warrington
Catalan
Salford
Leeds
Wakefield
Toronto
Huddersfield
Hull KR

Our near neighbours to fight it out next year imo. Hull FC will have a good year I think,we'll disappoint though even if we do fill the prop vacancy. Too many ordinary players in our squad to compete over the full season for me. Hull KR's massive turnover could be their downfall. Neck and neck with them and Huddersfield for the drop but Toronto might not be as competitive as a lot believe.

We haven't addressed the problem of having a lack of firepower in the forwards so its hard to see how we are going to improve in that regard.

Insanity: doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results (Albert Einstein)

Unless our ability to break down a defence close to the line radically improves then unfortunately I can't see us finishing higher up the table than we did last year.

Saints, Wigan, Us...

Huddersfield & Hull KR to battle it out for bottom spot.

Top plus win CC and GF....and WCC

I guess one year you might be right

We are not in the WCC, so it won`t be this year.

Top two with Saints.

Salford looking at potential relegation.

Thats the spirit

I can't give you an argument.

I feel my blind optimism surging back. It feels a bit like my wife's description of childbirth, "if I properly remembered how painful it was I would never have had the second!"
If I properly remembered how poor last season was I would be predicting us struggling to make the top 5...and yet...

i genuinely hope that I'm off the mark here as I'm usually in the optimistic camp and it pains me to say it, but as it stands I think the best we can muster is a dogfight for the last play off spot before narrowly missing out.

Based on recent history, the stats indicate ...

We have an even chance of getting to Wembley and then an even chance of winning the CC
We will most likely make the playoffs.
We have a 1/4 chance of making the final which we will lose.

Nurse.....nurse.....hes out of bed again

History shows us 345 in top 5 is not 1/4.
It's zero

Dont understand.

It means I don't agree with your stats and odds again.

I like thinking about things probabilistically like this.

At this point, my totally subjective - not based on any statistical modelling information or projections - guesstimate would be:

Making Wembley: 20%
Winning the CC: 10%
Winning the League Leaders' Shield: 10%
Making the playoffs: 55%
Making the Grand Final: 10%
Winning the Grand Final: 5%

That would give us a 1 in 200 chance of winning the double and 1 in 2000 chance of the treble, assuming the events are independent. In practice the odds of making/winning the Grand Final would go up if we won the LLS and might go down if we won the CC, but I haven't factored that in.

Can easily see us finishing 7th or 8th unless Price comes up with better tactics.
He seemed totally lost in the 2nd half of last season except for in the cup.
And he tried to play the cup tactics in the league after the CC win. It failed

Our squad is full of top performers but Price isn't getting anywhere near the best out of them and I've seen absolutely nothing to show he knows how to.

I hope I'm wrong but for the 1st time since Lowe's was the coach I can't say I'm looking forward to the season.

Did you allow for the possibility of one of the top clubs being docked points for breaching the salary cap ? I only ask because my model suggests we have a 13% chance of winning the LLS.

I'm going 5th this year, open the campaign with 2 losses. Price gone by Easter. Saints Wigan Leeds Hull Wire Huddersfield to drop. Interesting article over on the RFL site regarding 2020 final table https://www.superleague.co.uk/article/1 ... e-will-end

I'm going 5th this year, open the campaign with 2 losses. Price gone by Easter. Saints Wigan Leeds Hull Wire Huddersfield to drop. Interesting article over on the RFL site regarding 2020 final table https://www.superleague.co.uk/article/1 ... e-will-end

That's fair enough but I don't think your utterance was an English sentence.

"History shows us 345 in top 5 is not 1/4.
It's zero"