Evening all.

After Rovers lost today it struck me that Thaler was the ref today, and to me, we always [iseem[/i to lose when he is in charge of our games. This prompted me to look at a stats site of the Super League matches we've had since our debut season in 2007 and actually see if this was based on nothing or there was some actual proof to this.

So, I logged the refs we've had, how many wins, losses and draws from each ref and then we get a percentage of wins per ref.

REF Wins Losses Draw Total Games %wins

R Silverwood 15 20 0 35 42%

P Bentham 11 17 2 30 36%

B Thaler 6 17 2 25 24%

S Ganson 13 10 0 23 56%

T Alibert 11 8 0 19 57%

J Child 8 6 0 14 57%

I Smith 8 6 0 14 57%

R Hicks 7 4 0 11 63%

T Roby 4 4 0 8 50%

A Klein 3 3 0 6 50%

G Hewer 2 2 0 4 50%

R Laughton 1 0 0 1 100%

J Leahy 1 0 0 1 100%

B Taylor 0 1 0 1 0%



As you can see, of the Referees that have been in charge of a fair amount of Rovers matches, Thaler has by far the lowest percentage of wins for us. Now obviously there are several factors in whether a team wins, form, quality of opposition etc. However I find it interesting (and happy that it vindicated my hunch!) that there is one specific ref with such a low percentage of wins for Hull KR in games he's in charge of.

haha apologies for the awful formatting there, it looked so much better on excel

Just shows how biased some of the other refs are towards you

Any stats on games with ganson as video ref?

No

Pretty striking, tbf. Slightly surprised Bentham is so low - couple of draws in there for both, which is the equivalent of an extra win.

Yeah It seems striking to me that we would only win 24% of the games he's reffing, as I said, I always had a hunch that we seemed to lose whenever he was in charge and there seems to be something in that!

Great piece of work Sandy

FWIW, Mr Thaler disallowed 4 Widnes tries today, so he's not exactly our cup of tea either. To be fair though, he was probably right on most of them. Great game today though, and your boys came back really well in the second half. Good luck in the play-offs

Thank you I have often thought the same but did not know how to gather the information that would give me the stats that you have shown. I just said to her indoors another game that we have lost under Thaler. I said it a couple weeks ago he has had a downer on us ever since Justin Morgan slagged him off and got fined for it, it would be interesting to know how many losses have been under him since then.

This is all well and good but, does Thaler miss tackles, drop balls, off load in ridiculous situations (yes Mr Mika, I mean you)etc.....

A strange thing I have noticed is that when Rovers get well outplayed by the opposition as we were today many of our fans refer to us being beaten by 'a poor Widnes side' or a 'poor Bradford side' or whoever it was on the day.

This is complete .

For at least 60 minutes today Widnes were excellent OK some handling mistakes but for a side who have leaked so many points a very good and aggressive defensive performance whilst always looking like you might score.

At 3/4 time and for no obvious reason the game suddenly morphed into an end of season you score we score.

Thank you for your generous comments it is much appreciated. Thaler really is a ref we have never enjoyed but even he couldn't disguise that Widnes were very deserving winners today.

Sorry but those stats, as with most statistics, tell much less than the full story.

You could only see "evidence" of pattern if the OP produced similar stats for ALL other SL clubs. Then he'd need to add weighting factors for home/away, position in table at time of game, weather etc

This statistics lark isn't simply a question of addition and division

I wasn't specifically setting out to prove anything other then my hunch that rovers always seem to lose when Thaler is the ref, and we do. Now I know that there are several other factors to take into account not just who's in charge and if I was going to produce something more in depth then I would look at the other teams too.

However, from what I have produced I can safely say that 76% of the time Ben Thaler is in charge, we don't win the match. And that's all I wanted to look at

Proper stats would be a one-tailed two sample t test for percent/proportion or something like that. You wouldn't need to correct for those weighting factors, IMO, as there is no reason to assume Thaler's sample would be unusual - sample size would determine the power of the test.
I doubt it is statistically significant, and even if it were it won't be highly significant, so far from definitive. Might check later.
Does confirm that our record under Thaler is rubbish, for whatever reason. I thought we tended to do well under Bentham, but was clearly wrong about that.