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| Quote Double Movement="Double Movement"Friday Result: Dewsbury 42, Rochdale 0.
I bet Dewsbury are pleased with a clean sheet.'"
That is a scoreline that reflects the difference between Dewsbury RLFC and Doncaster RFLC. One does a job the other does half a job. Its why I have no confidence of us achieving a result tomorrow.
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| In an earlier post, I analysed the points conceded by Oldham and the Dons.
Here's Dewsbury's record:
Home: 12, 10, 10, 6, 6 and 0
Away: 26, 18, 16, 6, 6, and 4
Conceded 20+ points: Dons 50%, Oldham 50%, Dewsbury 9%.
Conceded fewer than 10 points: Dons 10%, Oldham 10%, Dewsbury 50%.
Being able to score points is important but not conceding points is probably even more important. Our defence looks vulnerable against sides we should be able to shut out. Against better sides, you can't give them a head start or else there is likely to be no way back.
The evidence suggests tomorrow could be a high scoring game. We'll see!
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| What do you see the handicap being?
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| Quote Wanderer="Wanderer"What do you see the handicap being?'"
Phew! That's a tough one...
I reckon we might be getting between 4 and 8 points start? Over recent seasons, the bookies have tended to oppose the Dons more than the league tables might suggest - correctly so in most instances. You don't know how the Dewsbury v Rochdale handicap compared to ours, do you? I didn't look.
The Dons might be worth a punt if getting 10 or more start? How do you see it?
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| I didn’t look at the Dewsbury v Rochdale handicap unfortunately.
I expect the Dons to get 8 or 10 points start tomorrow but that wouldn't be enough to tempt me in.
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| Having done some digging, Rochdale had 28 start.
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| Quote Wanderer="Wanderer"I didn’t look at the Dewsbury v Rochdale handicap unfortunately.
I expect the Dons to get 8 or 10 points start tomorrow but that wouldn't be enough to tempt me in.'"
You ruthless Wanderer!
What about a Dons win outright at 6/4, would that tempt you? I doubt the bookies would be that generous.
More like 8/11 Oldham, 11/10 Dons at best.
Any thoughts of backing Oldham at 4/5, say?
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| I'd be amazed if Oldham at 4/5 was available. I'm thinking they'll be 2/5 or thereabouts.
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| Quote Wanderer="Wanderer"I'd be amazed if Oldham at 4/5 was available. I'm thinking they'll be 2/5 or thereabouts.'"
Crikey, do you think Oldham will be that short?
Looking at the percentages, I'd probably go Oldham 56%, Draw 4%, Dons 40%.
That converts to odds of 1.79, 25.00 and 2.50 which in fractions comes in at approximately:
Oldham 4/5, Draw 25/1, Dons 6/4.
You're thinking more on the lines of Oldham 71%, Draw 4%, Dons 25% are you?
Oldham 2/5, Draw 25/1, Dons 3/1.
I can't wait to see the odds tomorrow. I can see you lumping on Oldham!
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| Quote Double Movement="Double Movement"In an earlier post, I analysed the points conceded by Oldham and the Dons.
Here's Dewsbury's record:
Home: 12, 10, 10, 6, 6 and 0
Away: 26, 18, 16, 6, 6, and 4
Conceded 20+ points: Dons 50%, Oldham 50%, Dewsbury 9%.
Conceded fewer than 10 points: Dons 10%, Oldham 10%, Dewsbury 50%.
Being able to score points is important but not conceding points is probably even more important. Our defence looks vulnerable against sides we should be able to shut out. Against better sides, you can't give them a head start or else there is likely to be no way back.
The evidence suggests tomorrow could be a high scoring game. We'll see!'"
We did not concede too many points at Dewsbury by them attacking in the conventional sense, it wasn't until they took to the sky's that we lost the scoreline. A fact I have no doubt which will not be lost on Oldham.
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| Dewsbury's handicap went to 32pts late on but obviously still covered it, fully expect dons to receive 6 or 8 tomorrow. Anything under 10 and I'm going quite large on oldham as i thought they were decent at ours.
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| Skybets current odds to win the league:
Dewsbury 1/4,
Dons 4/1,
Oldham 8/1.
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