| FORUMS > Doncaster RLFC > Dons v Dewsbury Sunday 27th August 2023 |
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Oh I don't think I knew McNeil left. He was definitely a driving force behind them for a while
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| Here's a brief summary of how things stand after the Oldham v Workington midweek game
If we beat Dewsbury, we can't finish lower than third. We could be second if Hunslet lose to Workington and we overturn the 60 points points difference disadvantage. Workington now have nothing to play for. They will finish fifth regardless of their result against Hunslet on Sunday.
If we draw or lose to Dewsbury, we will finish fourth if Oldham beat Midlands. A Dons draw would be insufficient to stay ahead of Oldham. A draw would mean we were level on points with Oldham (if they win) but they have the better points difference.
If Oldham draw or lose to Midlands, they will be fourth regardless of our result.
Our chances of finishing third have declined slightly with Oldham beating Workington on Wednesday. Originally my guesses were Dons second: 2%, Dons third: 51%: Dons fourth 47%.
I reckon we've got a 40% chance of beating Dewsbury. This would probably equate to bookies' odds of 5/4 or 11/8 as they would have an over-round book in their favour. Oldham must be classed as a 33/1 chance to slip up against Midlands. Combining the two, I'm thinking our chance of finishing third is 44%, with fourth place now the favourite at 54%. Our chances of finishing second haven't altered.
Where's ya money? 
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I noticed Sky offering odds of promotion for our division. Hunslet and ourselves were joint favourites at 6/5/ Oldham were 8/1 which seemed very generous to me considering they can still finish above us and it's knock out games
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| Quote: Jemmo "I noticed Sky offering odds of promotion for our division. Hunslet and ourselves were joint favourites at 6/5/ Oldham were 8/1 which seemed very generous to me considering they can still finish above us and it's knock out games'"
Crikey, that's a surprise. 8/1 for Oldham seems well over-priced. I'd have though the true odds for promotion were something like:
Hunslet 6/4 (40%), Dons 7/4 (36%), Oldham 3/1 (25%). |
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It's now gone down to 6/5 for Dons and Hunset and 6/1 for Oldham
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| Quote: Jemmo "It's now gone down to 6/5 for Dons and Hunset and 6/1 for Oldham'"
I reckon it's Wanderer who's weighed in on Oldham, you know! |
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Not guilty m'lord.
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If I was a betting man , my money on the second promoted team would be between us and Oldham.
We were absolutely shocking at The South Leeds Stadium and having attended there twice more this year when we have had no game or been away from home, I can safely say I have not been impressed.
A good win Sunday and we are in the box seat , however I would still fancy us to get the second spot with a forth placed finish.
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Still no Faraimo in the provisional squad
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| Quote: Jemmo "Still no Faraimo in the provisional squad'"
Oh dear, that's disappointing. Going straight into a play-off game wouldn't be ideal. |
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Bet365 ...
Dons +6 10/11
Dewsbury -6 10/11
Handicap Draw 16/1
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| Quote: Wanderer "Bet365 ...
Dons +6 10/11
Dewsbury -6 10/11
Handicap Draw 16/1'"
That seems about right to me. Have you had a wager? |
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No, it's too tough to call for me. Any outcome seems possible and it's difficult to know which Dewsbury will turn up especially with all the recent downtime.
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I've given up betting on Dons games a long time ago
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| Quote: Jemmo "I've given up betting on Dons games a long time ago'"
The last time I bet on the Dons was back in the Belle Vue days. We were giving the Eagles about 50 start. We were leading comfortably and then went to sleep for a while. We scored late on to make it a winning bet but it could quite easily have gone pear-shaped.
It's difficult enough being a Dons' fan without risking money on them |
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