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TO BE FIXED |
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The table as it stands with matches left:
Toulouse 9 17: New A, Kei H, N Wal A, York H, Lon A
Rochdale 10 17: New H, Hem A, Kei H, Dons H
York 9 15: Hun H, Oxf A, Glou H, Tou A, Kei A
Keighley 9 14: N Wal A, Tou A, Bar H, Roch A, York H
Dons 10 14: S Wal H, Lon A, Hem H, Roch A
Barrow 10 13: Lon H, Hem H, Kei A, Oxf H
London 9 10: Bar A, S Wal A, Dons H, Glou A, Tou H
Hunslet 10 10: York A, Cov H, Newc H, S Wal A
The best outcome for the Dons is if Toulouse beat Keighley and York. Toulouse could end up 27 points.
The best we can do is 22 points if we win all four, and 20 points if we lose to Rochdale.
If Rochdale lose to Toulouse but beat the Dons, they will have 23 points. They’d finish above us. If we beat Rochdale, they only have 21, and we’d be above them.
If York lose to Toulouse but beat Keighley, they will have 23 points and we can’t catch them regardless of whether we beat Rochdale. If they lose to Keighley but we beat Rochdale, we would be above them.
Keighley have the toughest run in. N Wales away, Toulouse away, Barrow at home, Rochdale away, and York at home means it’s hard to predict their finally tally as they’re on 14 points at the moment. If we get 22 points, they’d need to win four of those games to match us. If we lose at Rochdale, then three wins could catch us.
Barrow have 13 points. They look to have an easier run in apart from Keighley away. If they won all four, they’d have 21 points, which wouldn’t catch us if we win all our remaining games but they could if we lose at Rochdale.
The potential banana skin for us is the London game. We really can’t afford to lose that one. Should we lose that one and lose at Rochdale, 18 points probably won’t be good enough for fourth, although mathematically it may be if Barrow only won two of their last four (17 points) and Keighley only win one of their last five (16 points).
Points difference could play a part. We need to make sure we put plenty past S Wales and Hemel.
Of course, this is only the posturing for the last 7 games. As long as we finish in the top five at the very end of the season, we’re in the play-off mix.
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