Quote: Tarquin Fuego "I live in Australia so it's damn hard. I actually went to Wakefiled away in July 2014 when we drew. I have never known an away following so quiet as FC were that day.
I also bought a season pass last season as a sign of support for the Club and Adam.
Anyway using a small type of Money Ball analysis and there are a couple of issues that bother and intrigue me.
1. Where you are after 9 rounds is almost where you finish the season. You can usually hope for an improvement of 1 place + or - and that's it. The notable exceptions are very very rare. Look at our next 5 fixtures and you could guess where we may be after 9 and also 11 games. We could easily be 7th after 9 and 11 games. Take the emotion out of it and you'll probably agree.
2. Defence - like it or no we haven't improved since Radfud took over.
4 games in - points conceded
2014 102 points 2 (H) 2 (A)
2015 82 points 2 H 2 A
2016 87 points 3 H 1 A - also arguably the easiest draw of matches of the last 3 seasons
An average of nearly 22 a game this season and 3 of theose games were at Fortress KC.
I had money on Hull to beat Wigan by 6 or more so I live in hope'"
Like the Moneyball analogy.
Early days, but adding some more basic facts, compared with last season's regular fixtures we a have won two, lost two but improved our points difference.
Salford (H) Won 42-20 (2015: Won 24-20)
Cats (A) Won 38-10 (Lost 14-20)
Cas (H) Lost 23-31 (Won 40-14)
Wigan (H) Lost 25-26 (Lost 12-4icon_cool.gif
So same points achieved, but with a points difference of +42 v -12.
I agree that it's too early to call for Radford and have said before that we should have an initial view after Easter Monday, which is 8 games in and is close to tying in with the above forecast.
Out of interest, two key themes of frustration appear to be our defence and the ability to close a game out. Defence can be partly mitigated by attack and so far this season we have demonstrated an improvement in our ability to score tries.
However, the real key to improving our season will be the ability to close out games. Last season we 7 out of our 27 league games finished with a +/- 6 point result, of which Hull won just two of those games. Converting games like those five narrow defeats into victories will be what determines our league position.
Ironically, one of those 5 defeats last season was a 13-12 reverse at Wigan. Whatever you think of Wigan, they have always had the ability to win a game, regardless of their performance and in part, means they usually end up competing for honours at the business end of the season.