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Quote dboy="dboy"At the moment LGI is essentially full and Pinderfields almost full.
There will be no space in the hospitals for cancer ops, unless the virus is brought under control.
It's not a binary choice: Stop covid or live unrestricted lives. It's a balance that the govt has to decide upon to protect our society overall.
You should also consider this - if someone suffers suicide, cancer, loss of income or depression, they don't pass it on.
Each person with covid is currently passing it on to more than 1 other person.'"
I presume you've been following the official press office messages such as this printed in the YEP.
https://www.yorkshireeveningpost.co.uk/ ... ic-3016764
However I want the hard data rather than reports from a hospital press office. I have no interest in regional PR announcements, a Patrick Vallance mystic meg style prediction, a Prof "lockdown" Ferguson model or a score using Kevin Williamson's algorithm tool.
I think "context" based on real data is required here.
The claim "NHS about to be overwhelmed" - so then, using actual published NHS data please can you provide a summary or table link to demonstrate this assertion to be true?
From my research the LGI and Leeds St James Trust University hospital have 72 ICU beds in total divided up for various forms of Adult Care. Currently reported on 27th October there are 22 patients in ICU "with" a positive Covid. The percentage of overall adult care beds occupied is therefore 30.5%. The Leeds Teaching Hospitals NHS Trust has approximately 2,500 inpatient beds together with critical care and day case beds. Taken from the YEP report [iThe trust said there are 263 patients currently in their beds who have tested positive for Covid - including the 22 in intensive care[/i. Now want I want to know is how does this percentage compare for this time of year against the last five year average? |
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Quote dboy="dboy"At the moment LGI is essentially full and Pinderfields almost full.
There will be no space in the hospitals for cancer ops, unless the virus is brought under control.
It's not a binary choice: Stop covid or live unrestricted lives. It's a balance that the govt has to decide upon to protect our society overall.
You should also consider this - if someone suffers suicide, cancer, loss of income or depression, they don't pass it on.
Each person with covid is currently passing it on to more than 1 other person.'"
I presume you've been following the official press office messages such as this printed in the YEP.
https://www.yorkshireeveningpost.co.uk/ ... ic-3016764
However I want the hard data rather than reports from a hospital press office. I have no interest in regional PR announcements, a Patrick Vallance mystic meg style prediction, a Prof "lockdown" Ferguson model or a score using Kevin Williamson's algorithm tool.
I think "context" based on real data is required here.
The claim "NHS about to be overwhelmed" - so then, using actual published NHS data please can you provide a summary or table link to demonstrate this assertion to be true?
From my research the LGI and Leeds St James Trust University hospital have 72 ICU beds in total divided up for various forms of Adult Care. Currently reported on 27th October there are 22 patients in ICU "with" a positive Covid. The percentage of overall adult care beds occupied is therefore 30.5%. The Leeds Teaching Hospitals NHS Trust has approximately 2,500 inpatient beds together with critical care and day case beds. Taken from the YEP report [iThe trust said there are 263 patients currently in their beds who have tested positive for Covid - including the 22 in intensive care[/i. Now want I want to know is how does this percentage compare for this time of year against the last five year average? | |
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Quote Miro="Miro"I'll ask again, how many suicides, delayed cancer ops, livelihoods destroyed, increase in mental illness etc. etc. etc. etc. are you prepared to accept before you admit all these ridiculous measures are completely dis-proportionate
I realise it may be painfull to recognise the damage this is doing but please try.'"
A November lockdown exactly as I predicted back in April and here on this forum.
It's obvious this lockdown will not stop overall deaths from increasing as they always increase at this time of year, right through until January.
The only hope they've got is "to try it on" by the claiming the lockdown was a huge success because they've seen a drop in confirmed "positive" cases by 2nd December. This might be achieved, not through a reduction of actual transmission but rather a manipulation of the testing system. Don't be surprised if they drop the number of daily tests carried out from 350,000 a day to a much lower number.
We must keep an eye out to see if they play this trick throughout the whole month of November.
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/testing |
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Quote Miro="Miro"I'll ask again, how many suicides, delayed cancer ops, livelihoods destroyed, increase in mental illness etc. etc. etc. etc. are you prepared to accept before you admit all these ridiculous measures are completely dis-proportionate
I realise it may be painfull to recognise the damage this is doing but please try.'"
A November lockdown exactly as I predicted back in April and here on this forum.
It's obvious this lockdown will not stop overall deaths from increasing as they always increase at this time of year, right through until January.
The only hope they've got is "to try it on" by the claiming the lockdown was a huge success because they've seen a drop in confirmed "positive" cases by 2nd December. This might be achieved, not through a reduction of actual transmission but rather a manipulation of the testing system. Don't be surprised if they drop the number of daily tests carried out from 350,000 a day to a much lower number.
We must keep an eye out to see if they play this trick throughout the whole month of November.
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/testing | |
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Quote MatthewTrin="MatthewTrin"I presume you've been following the official press office messages such as this printed in the YEP.
https://www.yorkshireeveningpost.co.uk/ ... ic-3016764
However I want the hard data rather than reports from a hospital press office. I have no interest in regional PR announcements, a Patrick Vallance mystic meg style prediction, a Prof "lockdown" Ferguson model or a score using Kevin Williamson's algorithm tool.
I think "context" based on real data is required here.
The claim "NHS about to be overwhelmed" - so then, using actual published NHS data please can you provide a summary or table link to demonstrate this assertion to be true?
From my research the LGI and Leeds St James Trust University hospital have 72 ICU beds in total divided up for various forms of Adult Care. Currently reported on 27th October there are 22 patients in ICU "with" a positive Covid. The percentage of overall adult care beds occupied is therefore 30.5%. Now want I want to know is how does this percentage compare for this time of year against the last five year average.'"
What you have got to realise is ICU’s will have to be split between hot and Cold ie positive or negative. This has been done previously by changing HDU’s to ICU’s, to accommodate negative ICU patients ie surgical patients. The other issue is staffing, it’s ok having the capacity but with no staff, whicj I believe a very high number of ICU nurses have left the Leeds trust in the last 6 months due to all this. This does not also take into account HDU trained nurses now having to look after level 3 patients (ICU top level patients) HDU take level 2 patients. You can throw all the statistics you want regarding how many patients there were over the last few years, if there aren’t the staff there to look after any amount of patients than it’s screwed isn’t it. Let’s face it the NHS has been under funded and staff underpaid for years, just look at what it’s created. The nightingale hospitals won’t open as again no staff to work in them. |
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Quote MatthewTrin="MatthewTrin"I presume you've been following the official press office messages such as this printed in the YEP.
https://www.yorkshireeveningpost.co.uk/ ... ic-3016764
However I want the hard data rather than reports from a hospital press office. I have no interest in regional PR announcements, a Patrick Vallance mystic meg style prediction, a Prof "lockdown" Ferguson model or a score using Kevin Williamson's algorithm tool.
I think "context" based on real data is required here.
The claim "NHS about to be overwhelmed" - so then, using actual published NHS data please can you provide a summary or table link to demonstrate this assertion to be true?
From my research the LGI and Leeds St James Trust University hospital have 72 ICU beds in total divided up for various forms of Adult Care. Currently reported on 27th October there are 22 patients in ICU "with" a positive Covid. The percentage of overall adult care beds occupied is therefore 30.5%. Now want I want to know is how does this percentage compare for this time of year against the last five year average.'"
What you have got to realise is ICU’s will have to be split between hot and Cold ie positive or negative. This has been done previously by changing HDU’s to ICU’s, to accommodate negative ICU patients ie surgical patients. The other issue is staffing, it’s ok having the capacity but with no staff, whicj I believe a very high number of ICU nurses have left the Leeds trust in the last 6 months due to all this. This does not also take into account HDU trained nurses now having to look after level 3 patients (ICU top level patients) HDU take level 2 patients. You can throw all the statistics you want regarding how many patients there were over the last few years, if there aren’t the staff there to look after any amount of patients than it’s screwed isn’t it. Let’s face it the NHS has been under funded and staff underpaid for years, just look at what it’s created. The nightingale hospitals won’t open as again no staff to work in them. | |
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| Quote Pat Bateman="Pat Bateman"What you have got to realise is ICU’s will have to be split between hot and Cold ie positive or negative. This has been done previously by changing HDU’s to ICU’s, to accommodate negative ICU patients ie surgical patients. The other issue is staffing, it’s ok having the capacity but with no staff, whicj I believe a very high number of ICU nurses have left the Leeds trust in the last 6 months due to all this. This does not also take into account HDU trained nurses now having to look after level 3 patients (ICU top level patients) HDU take level 2 patients. You can throw all the statistics you want regarding how many patients there were over the last few years, if there aren’t the staff there to look after any amount of patients than it’s screwed isn’t it. Let’s face it the NHS has been under funded and staff underpaid for years, just look at what it’s created. The nightingale hospitals won’t open as again no staff to work in them.'"
All fair points raised, I agree dividing patients up between those with and without respiratory virus is always crucial to preventing an outbreak in Hospitals.
I've found the Leeds Teaching Hospitals NHS Trust Staffing Data - The number of COVID-19 related absences of staff, either through sickness or self-isolation
26 Mar 20 - 0
27 Mar 20 - 1,524
31 Mar 20 - 1,584 (Peak)
02 Apr 20 - 1,367
01 Sept - 166 (Lowest)
01-Oct-20 - 359
Context - in total, they employ over 14,000 staff across six sites.
The report doesn't provide the last 30 days due to reporting lag and it does not give information on the number of those that had a positive PCR test or the roles they had in the hospitals. I'm having difficulty finding data on the number of ICU nurses but I will keep searching. |
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I don't think you answered Rick's question Miro.
Is this the only place you are telling people about the Bill Gates takeover or are you active elsewhere?
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Quote MatthewTrin="MatthewTrin"A November lockdown exactly as I predicted back in April and here on this forum.
It's obvious this lockdown will not stop overall deaths from increasing as they always increase at this time of year, right through until January.
The only hope they've got is "to try it on" by the claiming the lockdown was a huge success because they've seen a drop in confirmed "positive" cases by 2nd December. This might be achieved, not through a reduction of actual transmission but rather a manipulation of the testing system. Don't be surprised if they drop the number of daily tests carried out from 350,000 a day to a much lower number.
We must keep an eye out to see if they play this trick throughout the whole month of November.
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/testing'"
Where abouts is your prediction from April on this forum please.
You only joined in June 2020 ??
Did "they" hack your account ? |
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Quote MatthewTrin="MatthewTrin"A November lockdown exactly as I predicted back in April and here on this forum.
It's obvious this lockdown will not stop overall deaths from increasing as they always increase at this time of year, right through until January.
The only hope they've got is "to try it on" by the claiming the lockdown was a huge success because they've seen a drop in confirmed "positive" cases by 2nd December. This might be achieved, not through a reduction of actual transmission but rather a manipulation of the testing system. Don't be surprised if they drop the number of daily tests carried out from 350,000 a day to a much lower number.
We must keep an eye out to see if they play this trick throughout the whole month of November.
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/testing'"
Where abouts is your prediction from April on this forum please.
You only joined in June 2020 ??
Did "they" hack your account ? | |
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| Quote wrencat1873="wrencat1873"Where abouts is your prediction from April on this forum please.
You only joined in June 2020 ??
Did "they" hack your account ?'"
No that was made to friends and relatives back in April.
Any detailed thoughts on my Sweden report - page 68? |
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| Quote MatthewTrin="MatthewTrin"All fair points raised, I agree dividing patients up between those with and without respiratory virus is always crucial to preventing an outbreak in Hospitals.
I've found the Leeds Teaching Hospitals NHS Trust Staffing Data - The number of COVID-19 related absences of staff, either through sickness or self-isolation
26 Mar 20 - 0
27 Mar 20 - 1,524
31 Mar 20 - 1,584 (Peak)
02 Apr 20 - 1,367
01 Sept - 166 (Lowest)
01-Oct-20 - 359
Context - in total, they employ over 14,000 staff across six sites.
The report doesn't provide the last 30 days due to reporting lag and it does not give information on the number of those that had a positive PCR test or the roles they had in the hospitals. I'm having difficulty finding data on the number of ICU nurses but I will keep searching.'"
So to put this into context every level 3 patient requires 1 nurse. Say if 15 ICU nurses are off ill this has a detrimental effect on day and night shifts. 14000 includes office, cleaners, managers, maintenance...etc. The UK has an apparent 40000 nurse shortage according to the NMC, and it shows trust me. |
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| Quote Pat Bateman="Pat Bateman" The UK has an apparent 40000 nurse shortage according to the NMC, and it shows trust me.'"
How does that compare to the last five year average?
I accept the NHS has been neglected and funds have been directed in the wrong areas for years.
The total number of COVID-19 related absences of ALL staff, either through sickness or self-isolation one month ago in NHS England was 19,493. So I suspect your 40,000 figure is more to do with the required number of nurses required to operate the service effectively at this moment. |
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| Quote MatthewTrin="MatthewTrin"How does that compare to the last five year average?
The total number of COVID-19 related absences of ALL staff, either through sickness or self-isolation one month ago in NHS England was 19,493. So I suspect your 40,000 figure is more to do with the required number of nurses required to operate the service effectively at this moment.'"
Absolutely. Take into account your normal ‘winter pressures’ on any other given year then bob this on top, it becomes a serious issue doesn’t it. |
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