Betting Chat

Really cannot make my mind up about the Champion Hurdle. All the horses have certain questions marks.

Fly - not many 9yos win it, rare for it to be re-gained, doesn't look any easier than last year
Zark - Nicholls concerned the course may be too sharp for him, may have to be the one to make the running as he certainly wouldn't be suited by a sprint finish; could be there to be shot down.
Rock on ruby - has never looked ungenuine, always seemed a real galloper, so blinkers could be a disaster. fry thinks they may help him see the race out better on this ground, but it is impossible to say until 3.25pm tomorrow. ground not ideal, but if he can get away with it being like it is then surely he has a big chance.
Grandouet - really rate this horse but one run in 15 months isn't very inspiring and reportedly didn't please Hendo in his work last week
Binocular - on his day there are few better, but can throw in the odd shocker. definitely an interesting contender, henderson has reported him to be working very, very well.
Cinders - won the supreme last year and evidently needs good ground to be at his best against class horses
CWF - looks up against it, and the record of 5yo's in this race doesn't show many winners, a good few seem to try though

selection: yet to decide, may be a late one lol

think we could see something special in the arkle. simonsig is working the house down at hendo's yard by what geraghty and the yard staff have been saying at the chelt preview nights. the ground has went for overturn, which will make his task of winning this from the front even harder. arvika ligeonneire could pick up the pieces and finish second, although coming into the race from a fall is hardly an ideal prep. will need to give these fences plenty of respect, but the ground will certainly not be an inconvenience.

selection: simonsig, e/w arvika

i fancy this to go across the irish sea. this ground will bring the stamina of champagne fever into it and i think if ruby sits handy he can gallop them all into the ground after the second last. my tent or yours couldve done with a massive field imo so mccoy could try and restrain him a bit, he has never raced on a track with a stiff hill finish and i think his style could see him treading water when push comes to shove. either that, or he will prove a class above! un atout is also an interesting bow to the mullins string. his only form over hurdles is from small field heavy ground affairs in ireland, so while the ground should suit this does mark a massive step up in class. its no secret that he is thought of very highly by all connected. dodging bullets would interest me on better ground, but he cannot be easily discounted. only other one i could give a squeak to is puffin billy, but he has hardly had a clear prep.

selection: champagne fever. e/w
he has done nothing wrong over hurdles. won LTO after ending up in front plenty early enough, with his only disappointment when he suffered a respiratory infection when well beaten behind rule the world. i know jezki beat him before that, but jezki did have the experience advantage and was also in receipt of 3lbs. CF put in a few scruffy jumps that day, and jezki had to be ridden quite vigorously to keep the margin when they hit the line. only problem is i dont see champagne fever as being anything remotely like a speed horse, but hopefully that wont matter on softened ground. he will either be right in the mix or outpaced and well beat, probably not a middle ground.

one i find interesting in the cross country is leac an scail. he proved he handled these fences and course fine in december, finishing third. he reopposes the first two, and is 1lb better off with bostons angel (1L) and 9lbs better off with outlaw pete (7.5L). in a race that can be a bit of a lottery, he may give backers a run for their money at 25/1. any currency could be thrown in off 10st 2 if he enjoys the experience.

not a race i can muster a big interest in or really give much of a hoot about, so my token selections are leac an scail and any currency (both e/w)

as for the mares, the first lady of the festival should rack up win no 5. une artist could make a race of it, as could kentford grey lady, but both need to improve a fair bit or hope quevega has readily went backwards. the ground will be fine for swing bowler and she should stay this far as well. she ranks me has been a model of consistency for mccain all winter, this will be her 9th start since august, so she has been on the go a while, but there have been a few breaks of around 6 weeks between her races so must be one of the types to take her racing well. made a well regarded hendo horse work for the win last time so warrants respect. another one i feel might have a decent race in her is the venetia williams horse stone light, which must be monitored in the betting like a lot from that yard. her french form probably isnt anything majestic (ones in front yet to really frank it) but the comments from her runs suggest this step up to 20f with a hill finish on soft ground will readily suit (described as 'kept on' over 18f), andshe should be a fairly large price in what can often be a lottery race to fill the places. in such a big field, there are bound to be a that struggle for a run or impeded so evens it out a bit.

selection: Quevega (NAP), e/w's Stone Light 66/1, she ranks me 33/1
win without fav market: swing bowler 4/1, she ranks me 14/1 e/w, stone light 28/1 e/w

dont usually spend too much time with these big field cheltenham handicaps so will leave the JLT and novice one til tomorrow.