What are our chances now, They are certainly better than i expected them to be at this stage but do we have what it takes to get over the line, and will we ever again get a full squad to pick from.

Do we try for a win in every game or do we target certain games( very risky ) getting interesting now.

All remaining 5 games are winnable for me but absolutely no chance we will win all 5. With 3 home games, we should be able to get in the 8. I am even fairly hopeful of a top 6 finish now.

Think the only injuries we will have for the Hull KR game are Mamo and Taai.

Looking at who has what left I’d say we need to win three of the last five to stay in the 8. Kr, wakey and probably fc at home are the ones we have more chance of winning. Wigan and Cas away less likely.
Salford play Catalan in the penultimate week which could be very telling.

Got it wrong jools Wigan at home kr away

I said cas away not Wigan. Didn’t specify where Kr and Wigan were played.
Reason being fc away I think we’d lose but chance at home. Cas at home perhaps but not at their place.

always think you need 10 wins to make the top 8

still work to be done by us

2 more wins may be enough with the draw we got but 3 to be sure

Better than even is my calculation. Just.

Bottom three is settled imo. Widnes and Hull KR are done, and Salford aren’t far behind.

So we’re in a battle with Catalans and Leeds to avoid 9th.

Leeds are in shocking form and need to start winning. But, courtesy of the Stone era philosophy of not attempting to score, we have a shocking points difference.

I think it will be very tight. It’s in our hands though - keep winning and we’ll be fine.


When I say, by my calculation, what I mean is that I’ve built a Monte Carlo simulation of the end of the season (with 10,000 runs) and it puts us in the top eight 54% of the time.

Interestingly, it never puts Widnes in the 8 so even though they are 9 points behind and have 12 to play for, I suspect some combination of other results means they are already mathematically outside the 8.

catalans really are on the up, see them in the top 8 now, drinkwater changed them and firing

big match at hull kr next friday, but they all are now in the search for top 8

3 wins i think we need still... hull kr, hull fc, wigan, castleford, wakefield... surely can get at least two om the board from those

It’s between us and Catalans for eighth I think.

Pity they beat Leeds yesterday. We could have done with them losing.

Any chance you could message me the code for your simulation if you have actually done it! Would be interesting...

Us, Leeds and Catalans have to play Wakey yet so it could get interesting.

Happy to.

But it’s in an Excel spready. The results and the table calculations are just on a spreadsheet. The only actual code is the loop.

It’s a bit rough - I did it while eating my lunch - but if you pm me your email address I’ll send you the file.

That was for Little Ivor btw.

Just tried to PM and got the message "Some users couldn’t be added as they have disabled private message receipt."

Oh.

I have no idea what that means. I’ll have a fiddle with my account settings!