19 man squad for HKR

This is what I penned over 12 months ago:

"Saw a reply from ant7t2 postulating that there were definitely five winnable games for Leigh, possibly six (I happen to agree, for all that that’s worth). What would that mean? Statistically, five wins would guarantee a top five finish (i.e. at worst a stab at the “Million Pound Game”) whereas six wins guarantees a top three finish (automatic place in Super League next season). For anybody interested, the maths is below.

There are a total of 28 games in the Middle 8s. That’s 56 points up for grabs or, as I’ll call it, in the pot. Let’s write off the bottom two teams (whichever they may be) and assume that they both lose all their games bar the one in which they play one another. That leaves 54 points in the pot to be shared between the remaining six teams – an average of 9 points apiece. Any team getting more than that (e.g. with the abovementioned 5 wins) is guaranteed to finish above sixth spot. It is possible for all six to finish on 9 points but it is highly unlikely that there would be three draws in the mere fifteen games between these six clubs – there were only six draws in the 226 matches in the top two divisions last season. This means that, realistically, four wins and a draw would be enough for a top five spot.

Scenario two. Write off the bottom four clubs this time. They play six games amongst themselves leaving 44 points to be shared between the top four. Even a Winwick based Wire fan can work out that average! Any team getting more than eleven points (e.g. by getting six wins) would be guaranteed to finish above fourth.

These scenarios are extreme. These Eights are likely to be very competitive and I feel that all involved will pick up a few points. That, however, will merely lower the crossbar. There is (statistically, although not realistically) a chance that a club could win the whole damned caboodle with only seven points."

That last bit is no longer possible after the results this year so far.