He is as bad as his other login trolls

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Thanks for opening the discussion Cheadle Leyther.

As another ex-Grammar Bug I too have been exercising my grey matter over the endless permutations (or should that be combinations - I can never remember which!) which may arise over the last 4 weeks of the regular season.

As a starting point - and that is all it is not a definitive set of final positions - I have also had a look at the top 6 and their remaining fixtures.

For the purpose of this exercise I have assumed that the Centurions will win their remaining games. That is not to disrespect the opposition but if we don't achieve wins in all those four matches, there is little point in prolonging the discussion on here as we won't make the top 4 - simple as that.

With that proviso in mind I have also made the following assumptions in order to see what the final picture would be based on those premises:-

1. Where top 6 teams play each other, the HOME team will take the points.
2. In all other fixtures - as form teams - the top 6 team is awarded the win BUT upsets can and will happen!
3. No attempt has been made to judge the winning margin but clearly points difference will come into play in deciding the top 4.

Based on the above here is a possible scenario:-

Round Final
19 20 21 22 23 Position

1 Toronto 35 37 39 41 43 1
2 Toulouse 28 30 32 32 34 2
3 Featherstone 28 28 30 32 32 4

Great work 71leyther. You have Fev winning two out of four. If they only lose by a small margin and win big against Swinton & London the 100 points could be higher. Also your analysis assumes a loss against Toronto in the final game LOL.

I think the ideal scenario is that London & Halifax both lose two leaving them on 30 & 31 points.

Too many twists and turns to predict anything at this stage. Like you say we need to win all our games and where possible with a big margin.

Update- England in quarter final!! Also, after further research it appears since 2009 there have been 10 Fax v. Fev. games at the Shay and Fev.have amazingly won the lot! That's what I call a bogey team!!

Not forgetting Fax have beaten Fev on every neutral ground since they played each other also at Fev ground 9-8 to Fev Charlie get to the Shay never Mount Unpleasant ant

If you toss a coin 10 times and get tails 9 times, what are the odds of getting tails on the last toss?

Evens

Exactly. All previous results are meanigless and only the next one matters in isolation. Different squads, different weather, different ref, previous results have no bearing whatsoever on this one although they make for nice little fun facts for the stattos.

Because obviously there is no mental aspect to the game...

That's another spanner in the works - a 20-20 draw!! Now points difference only applies to Fev.

Assuming we can get to 32 points. To get into the top four we need to get past two of the teams above us.

To get above them we need:

a) London to lose 1 of their last 3

b) Halifax to lose 2 of their last 4

c) Featherstone to lose 2 of their last 4 and us to claw back a points difference of 100.

d) Toulouse to lose 2 of their last 3 games (VERY UNLIKELY).

With Halifax v Featherstone today
- assuming there is a winner then we need the losing team to lose one more game from their last 3 to give us a chance.
- a draw doesn't help Fax because one more loss from their last 3 and we would be ahead on points difference.

We don’t need all of those, which is impossible anyway, we just need some of them.