Quote: j.c "surely the club can only work out budgets on guarenteed incomes and not on what might or might not be.'"
Well, you might think that would the sensible thing to do, but there are problems.
How do you decide what your 'guaranteed' income is? If the team makes a losing start and crowds go down...how do you budget for that? The 'guaranteed' income could be so low that if you budget with that, you cant afford the team needed to be competitive and the spiral is downwards.
Second, you cant assume that your expenditure is fixed for the year. Crowds go up and down. This year, for example, the winning bonus payments are larger because the team did really well. Trevor Barton stated that they budget for losing 5 games in the league, which would seem reasonable at the beginning of the season.
Its a really tough commercial nut to crack and getting it wrong either way can be costly.