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FORUMS > Warrington Wolves > O/T The general election thread (merged) |
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| I agree that Labour chose the wrong Miliband. He just doesn't look or sound credible enough and as shallow as that sounds, a good percentage of the electorate are influenced by these things rather than policies.
As for Clegg, well he's proving very useful as Cameron's fall guy. Lying to the voters about tuition fees started his slow death and it seems that he and the Liberals are taking more than their fair share of the blame related to the Coalitions failures.
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| Quote: worthing wire "Was an excellent election for Labour to lose.
The Lib Dems are finished as an even barely credible political party at national level.
It's a pity Labour went for the wrong Miliband brother, though.'"
I reckon labour are playing/will play a fine political ploy.
Ed Milliband is the classic political stooge. He is carrying the can for the unpopularity of the previous government. When this finally subsides (another 18 months I reckon) and the public at large start to really turn on the coalition, Labour will wheel out D Milliband to front up towards the next general election.
I couldn't agree more about the Lib Dems. Clegg's 15 minutes of media, not political, fame has set them back years. Clegg is knackered next time round, he is a political dead man walking in Sheffield as a Lib Dem MP. What chances he gets a Conservative safe seat to contest?
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| Quote: getdownmonkeyman "I reckon labour are playing/will play a fine political ploy.
Ed Milliband is the classic political stooge. He is carrying the can for the unpopularity of the previous government. When this finally subsides (another 18 months I reckon) and the public at large start to really turn on the coalition, Labour will wheel out D Milliband to front up towards the next general election.
I couldn't agree more about the Lib Dems. Clegg's 15 minutes of media, not political, fame has set them back years. Clegg is knackered next time round, he is a political dead man walking in Sheffield as a Lib Dem MP. What chances he gets a Conservative safe seat to contest?'"
I don't think David Miliband will be the next leader.
There's a possibility Ed will go but I think if it's before the next election it will be Yvette Cooper that replaces him.
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| Quote: sally cinnamon "I don't think David Miliband will be the next leader.
There's a possibility Ed will go but I think if it's before the next election it will be Yvette Cooper that replaces him.'"
As daft as this sounds, Cooper's relationship with Balls, allied to his standing in the last government may be her undoing.
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Quote: getdownmonkeyman "As daft as this sounds, Cooper's relationship with Balls, allied to his standing in the last government may be her undoing.'"
Can't see that - I think she's a strong enough character on her own to be able to distance herself from her marriage, as a certain Hillary Clinton has been able to do. The Labour Party must retain confidence in Ed Miliband for the next few years at least, and all figures being talked about as potential leaders must do so emphatically also, as not to appear sneaky and disloyal. If with a year to go to an Election the Labour Party is not poised to take power again, then will be the time to ask questions, but as the article I've attached from the Guardian discusses and the paragraph included highlights - the Labour Party under Ed Miliband is in a pretty strong position and the party's tainted reputation for economic competence will heal over time.
As for the Coalition - this time last year it was the Lib Dems who were public enemy number one, with the Tories perfectly content to allow them to feel the full force of public anger. However at present we are seeing initial signs of the Conservative Party unravelling: Liam Fox and his Corruption, A rebellion on Europe (An issue which I think he will be forced to face again soon enough), Troubled relations with the French (We may not like them, but we need to work with them, especially in tough economic times), Stupidly insensitive comment in reference to Hillsborough, and I could be here for another week reeling off a list of mistakes and critiques of the Coalition Govt.
Ultimately - we heard David Cameron become practiced in his snide remarks during his years in opposition, promising a new, cleaner politics and he still acts the same old spineless way. He is the Prime Minister but still he is too content to pass the blame and make snide (even sexist) remarks in the Commons and pass the blame with the now getting very weak excuse of 'It's Labour's fault'. I'd say he is still acting like he's running for election/in opposition instead of actually leading, a message i'd also apply to Barack Obama.
I think the Coalition will last its course, out of necessity more than in blissful happiness, as I think if in two years time the country is still in dire straits and the cuts are being applied even more callously then the Lib Dems (unquestionably) and even the Tories will be in big trouble. You fight a general election on your record in office and Mr Cameron's at present is full of criticism.
Guardian Article: www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree ... d-miliband
'In an election now, the leading psephologist Professor John Curtice reckons Labour could win outright. After the boundary changes, they would still be the biggest party in a hung parliament, gaining most from the Lib Dem collapse. It worries many in Labour ranks that as yet they have made no inroads into the Tory vote, but even so Curtice still gives Labour the winning edge. To be ahead at all is, he reckons, not bad only 18 months from a car-crash election, and he remarks on Labour's uncharacteristic freedom from serious internal discord.'
'Labour is in a stronger position than many within it quite realise. Apart from the two Eds, others often have a nervous air, lacking an instinct for the jugular or vociferous enough outrage at the injustice being inflicted. Christmas will be hard as many more families see lost jobs. I will be back in January, hoping that Osborne and Cameron will be forced to turn back and go for growth – not in windy words but in deeds.'
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Quote: getdownmonkeyman "As daft as this sounds, Cooper's relationship with Balls, allied to his standing in the last government may be her undoing.'"
Can't see that - I think she's a strong enough character on her own to be able to distance herself from her marriage, as a certain Hillary Clinton has been able to do. The Labour Party must retain confidence in Ed Miliband for the next few years at least, and all figures being talked about as potential leaders must do so emphatically also, as not to appear sneaky and disloyal. If with a year to go to an Election the Labour Party is not poised to take power again, then will be the time to ask questions, but as the article I've attached from the Guardian discusses and the paragraph included highlights - the Labour Party under Ed Miliband is in a pretty strong position and the party's tainted reputation for economic competence will heal over time.
As for the Coalition - this time last year it was the Lib Dems who were public enemy number one, with the Tories perfectly content to allow them to feel the full force of public anger. However at present we are seeing initial signs of the Conservative Party unravelling: Liam Fox and his Corruption, A rebellion on Europe (An issue which I think he will be forced to face again soon enough), Troubled relations with the French (We may not like them, but we need to work with them, especially in tough economic times), Stupidly insensitive comment in reference to Hillsborough, and I could be here for another week reeling off a list of mistakes and critiques of the Coalition Govt.
Ultimately - we heard David Cameron become practiced in his snide remarks during his years in opposition, promising a new, cleaner politics and he still acts the same old spineless way. He is the Prime Minister but still he is too content to pass the blame and make snide (even sexist) remarks in the Commons and pass the blame with the now getting very weak excuse of 'It's Labour's fault'. I'd say he is still acting like he's running for election/in opposition instead of actually leading, a message i'd also apply to Barack Obama.
I think the Coalition will last its course, out of necessity more than in blissful happiness, as I think if in two years time the country is still in dire straits and the cuts are being applied even more callously then the Lib Dems (unquestionably) and even the Tories will be in big trouble. You fight a general election on your record in office and Mr Cameron's at present is full of criticism.
Guardian Article: www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree ... d-miliband
'In an election now, the leading psephologist Professor John Curtice reckons Labour could win outright. After the boundary changes, they would still be the biggest party in a hung parliament, gaining most from the Lib Dem collapse. It worries many in Labour ranks that as yet they have made no inroads into the Tory vote, but even so Curtice still gives Labour the winning edge. To be ahead at all is, he reckons, not bad only 18 months from a car-crash election, and he remarks on Labour's uncharacteristic freedom from serious internal discord.'
'Labour is in a stronger position than many within it quite realise. Apart from the two Eds, others often have a nervous air, lacking an instinct for the jugular or vociferous enough outrage at the injustice being inflicted. Christmas will be hard as many more families see lost jobs. I will be back in January, hoping that Osborne and Cameron will be forced to turn back and go for growth – not in windy words but in deeds.'
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| Quote: WarwickUniWolf "Snip.'"
Adressing your Clinton point; Bill Clinton was an extremely popular President, even after his 'indiscretions' Balls is intrisically linked to the back-biting and infighting of Brown's tenure. I do agree that Cooper has the credentials to be judged on her own merit, even thiough it never works like that, unfortunately.
I couldn't agree more about the tired mantra of blaming Labour for all our current woes. Whilst the legacy of the past cannot be ignored, it is what is being done today that I am concerned with, and lets be honest, the cuts haven't remotely got started. I believe they are being held off for as long as possible, to give the economy chance to show real signs of growth before they really kick-in. I'm not holding my breath on that one though; hello again recession. In fact, when was the last time Osborne was seen in public?
I couldn't disagree more about Ed Milliband, he appears to have no great political acumen, and, unfortunately, he doesn't have the charisma to fill the void created by that. Rightly or wrongly, today's politics is style over substance. Didn't the Tory whips tell all and sundry to lay off Milliband as it was being to hurt them in the ratings, Tories bullying, again.
I don't think David Milliband has the charisma of a Blair, but he more than makes up for it with this intelligence.
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| Quote: getdownmonkeyman "
I do agree that Cooper has the credentials to be judged on her own merit, even thiough it never works like that, unfortunately.
'"
Well, the Warrington North Constituency Labour Party preferred Helen Jones to Cooper as their candidate in 1997 when Hoyle went up to the Lords. I'm not sure who this says more about.
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| Quote: sally cinnamon "If we had that system it would be pretty much like European politics with a large number of parties and you end up with coalitions of a centre-right party needing to pander to some unpleasant right wingers or of a centre-left party needing to keep the Greens onside. Not saying that it's wrong just that it would bring us much more in line with the European norm.
Really in terms of winning an election, dominating the centre-left ground is key as that is where the British electorate is. Margaret Thatcher won three elections on 40-42% of the vote, with about 52-56% voting for Labour and the SDP/Liberal Alliance but the Alliance had a big share back then (23-25% or so) and so it split the vote. But when Blair established Labour in that ground he won three elections quite comfortably. There is the chance for that now as the Lib Dem vote will shrink in 2015, it just depends on where those votes go. If they go off to the Greens then the Tories might sneak a small overall majority. If they go to Labour then Labour will win because switching Lib Dem votes over to Labour in a lot of seats knocks out Tory MPs. I think with David Miliband Labour would have no problems winning in 2015 but they will find it tough with Ed who just doesn't seem cut out for the job. He might fall just short like Kinnock in 92.'"
Interesting point but under my vision we would still end up with 2 major parties but they would be genuinely philosophically opposed rather than the current liberal consensus - so more of a realignment.
So we'd have a party in favour of pulling out of the EU, smaller welfare state and grammar schools (to pick 3 policies) with a mix of capitalist and state controlled economic approaches. Along the lines of Burkean conservatism.
You'd then have a more metropolitan liberal party - totally capitalist, socially liberal (including law and order), and in favour of comprehensive education. Whiggish type party. (I know Burke was a whig but he lead the conservative strand).
There may then be other strands but I don't see full on socialists winning much electoral approval and the far right has never done anything at a national level. The Labour and Conservative parties would just be a rump with a few seats in strongholds, UKIP would be rendered redundant and that particular bunch of oddities would disappear.
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| Quote: getdownmonkeyman "Adressing your Clinton point; Bill Clinton was an extremely popular President, even after his 'indiscretions' Balls is intrisically linked to the back-biting and infighting of Brown's tenure. I do agree that Cooper has the credentials to be judged on her own merit, even thiough it never works like that, unfortunately.
I couldn't agree more about the tired mantra of blaming Labour for all our current woes. Whilst the legacy of the past cannot be ignored, it is what is being done today that I am concerned with, and lets be honest, the cuts haven't remotely got started. I believe they are being held off for as long as possible, to give the economy chance to show real signs of growth before they really kick-in. I'm not holding my breath on that one though; hello again recession. In fact, when was the last time Osborne was seen in public?
I couldn't disagree more about Ed Milliband, he appears to have no great political acumen, and, unfortunately, he doesn't have the charisma to fill the void created by that. Rightly or wrongly, today's politics is style over substance. Didn't the Tory whips tell all and sundry to lay off Milliband as it was being to hurt them in the ratings, Tories bullying, again.
I don't think David Milliband has the charisma of a Blair, but he more than makes up for it with this intelligence.'"
Agree with the point Re:Bill Clinton - and similarities between Bill and Ed Balls are minute. Balls is indeed going to be long tarred with his part in the Brown Govt, but suprisingly he does seem to be rather astute and someone who really rattles David Cameron in PMQ's as he did again on Wednesday. And as you said Osborne is being hidden from public view by Tory Towers, and Balls is relishing this scenario. He may be a bit bafoonish but I'd sum up Ed Balls as a ruthless politician and debater.
As for Ed Miliband - I just don't think we can judge his leadership and chances of winning an election until we are at least another year down the line. And any key Labour figures with leadership ambitions must be careful not to 'rock the boat' too much or risk damaging their reputation within the Parliamentary Party.
For the record - my voting for the Leadership was as follows: 1) Andy Burnham 2) Ed Balls 3) David Miliband 4) Ed Miliband. And Diane Abbott wasn't worthy of a vote. It's tough to imagine where the Labour Party would be if one of the other candidates was the Leader, but I don't think it'd be drastically different.
Going to be a tough Winter for Cameron and the Tories, and Miliband needs to capitalise.
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| Andy Burnham? Jesus wept. Please don't tell me you voted for him because he's almost from Warrington
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| Quote: worthing wire "Andy Burnham? Jesus wept. Please don't tell me you voted for him because he's almost from Warrington
Ha Not quite - known him well for a number of years. Sat near him at Everton and was taught by his brother at Birchwood High School and thought he had some good ideas, but I think his biggest asset was his affability. Someone who the general British public could relate to well: Football fan, normal background, like Music, Loves the NHS and so on.
Tough to imagine he'll get another chance in the near future.
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| Quote: sally cinnamon "Since June 2010 the economy has got worse not better.
In June 2010 the unemployment rate was 7.8% of the working age population, now its 8.1%, which is the highest its been since 1996 (the last year of the last Tory government). Youth unemployment is now the highest its been since 1992 (the last time the Tories won an election outright). The Tories made a big issue of youth unemployment at the last election, saying it was Labour's legacy of failure for the young people, this has dropped off the Tory agenda now that they are seeing it is going up.
In June 2010 inflation was 3.2%, now its 5.2%, which is the highest its been since 1991. Compare that to earnings growth which is 2.8% which means average real incomes have fallen about 2.3% in the past year.
In the year up to June 2010 the economy grew 2.2%. In the past year it has grown 0.5%, despite George Osborne titling his Budget this year as "A budget for growth".
As regards progress on deficit reduction, in the financial year to date expenditure is 2.9% higher than it was at this point last year (although taking into consideration inflation of 5.2% that is a cut in real terms). But tax revenues are 4.9% higher than they were at this point last year, so there has been some closing of the primary deficit. Tax receipts have risen despite there being fewer taxpayers and more benefit claimants, the reason it's higher is because of the rise in VAT and also the top 50% tax rate which Alastair Darling brought in but has mainly been collected by a Tory government. A lot of Osborne's Tory chums have been lobbying the press to cut that 50% tax rate saying it loses money for the exchequer because all the rich leave for Switzerland etc but Osborne has been reticent on actually cutting it because he knows that it is bringing revenue in.
The Coalition government have taken the UK government backwards and they haven't got a convincing plan to move forwards. All George Osborne clings to is saying that the yield on UK government bonds (ie the interest rate at which the government can borrow) has fallen, which it has, but the interest rate on bonds also reflects market expectations as to interest rates in the economy, when they expect interest rates to be low for the long term then 5 year and 10 year bond yields will drop. They are going to be low because there is no expectation that the Bank of England will put them up to try and deflate a boom. If the economy was looking healthier then these rates would go up. So Osborne is claiming a success for something that is just a reflection of the fact international markets have written off the UK economy as being in the doldrums for a while ahead.
I am not saying things would be great had Labour won the last election but a hard analysis of the facts are that the economy has slipped slightly backwards since the Coalition has taken over.
In rugby league terms its like Mick Potter replacing Steve McNamara at Bradford. There is no noticeable improvement, but if Potter blamed Steve McNamara every time Bradford lost it would start wearing thin after a while, and that's what the Coalition are doing.'"
The facts are that if we like it or not we are in the best of a bad position at the moment. If labour had got back in we would be in the same position as Greece now as the labour plan was to keep spending our way out of recession. The Euro problem will cause all our problems over the next 24 months and nobody saw that.
This Government has not gone forward in any way however given the world some confidence that we are at least trying to stop the spending.
Worse it about to come especially in the Public sector where we will have major problems bringing in pension reform which is long overdue to be honest.
So are we better off under the Tories ...but if it was labour we would have been an Ireland/ Spain / Greece now. Look at history over the years labour overspends and the Tories mop it up.
Hard times ahead folks the European situation is on the brink of disaster.
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| Quote: wireboot "The facts are that if we like it or not we are in the best of a bad position at the moment. If labour had got back in we would be in the same position as Greece now as the labour plan was to keep spending our way out of recession. The Euro problem will cause all our problems over the next 24 months and nobody saw that.
This Government has not gone forward in any way however given the world some confidence that we are at least trying to stop the spending.
Worse it about to come especially in the Public sector where we will have major problems bringing in pension reform which is long overdue to be honest.
So are we better off under the Tories ...but if it was labour we would have been an Ireland/ Spain / Greece now. Look at history over the years labour overspends and the Tories mop it up.
Hard times ahead folks the European situation is on the brink of disaster.'"
The Tories mop it up?
Have you neglected to remember the way Thatcher and Major had the economy? We keep seeing records broken (highest % of population out of work, most young people out of work etc), records which were generaly from 1992. The country Blair invested in 1997 wasn't in good order and he rode the boom he created, just failed to prepare and regulate against a bust.
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| Quote: wireboot "Look at history over the years labour overspends and the Tories mop it up.'"
Those Labour budgets up till the Lehmann brothers crash in 2008 that set off the world recession were pretty much identical in deficit terms to the Conservative budgets under John Major's government.
Borrowing spiked as a result of the recession because of the lost output and lost taxation revenues. Labour only ran really high deficits for two years. The Tories have run a really high deficit for one.
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| Sal seeing as you have your finger on the pulse of politics how do you feel this country would have gone if it hadn't been a coalition government? No, better still how would we be if
A) The Tories had been in power
B) Labour
C) Lib dems
D) UKIP
E) Greens
F) BNP
Would it have changed for the better or worse with those in charged, obviously i'd like to think a lot worse with a certain party, but seriously without your usually sarcastic look on life and basing it on their election manifesto how do think it could have gone.
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