FORUMS > Warrington Wolves > O/T The general election thread (merged) |
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| Quote: Paul Youane "Not sure of best place to post this however this thread is as good as any.
I remember the Gulf War being dismissed as being over oil whilst the Falklands war was to do with defending our Commonwealth. I always believed that the Falklands war was primarily to protect any claims the UK have to teh minerals to be extracted from that area of the globe
After the Argentinians invaded, the advice given to Mrs Thatcher in Whitehall was that we should have let it go, because it would be too militarily risky to mount a convincing campaign from such a distance, and the benefits weren't worth the costs, or the political risks to Thatcher.
A lot of people like to claim that Thatcher engineered the Falklands War to win her popularity, but at the time it was a case of her taking a massive political risk, rather than sensing an opportunity to gain popularity. She was already massively unpopular, and if the Falklands campaign had gone badly she would have been forced out.
Also its a bit of a myth that wars win elections. Remember that straight after World War Two ended in 1945, Churchill was voted out by a landslide Labour victory under Clement Attlee! If Churchill couldn't win a 'khaki' election campaign after fighting off the Germans then nobody could!
The reality IMO of why Thatcher won in 1983 wasn't because of the Falklands, it wasn't even because Thatcher was massively popular at the time, it was because the Labour party had split in two and Roy Jenkins and his mates had created the SDP which went into alliance with the Liberals and split the anti-Thatcher vote by robbing them of a lot of Labour votes. Labour only held onto their safe seats in 1983....all of the marginals went the Conservatives way, because the SDP had taken enough Labour votes away to reward the Conservatives under the first past the post system.
I reckon had it not been for the SDP breaking off out of the Labour party, Thatcher would have lost in 1983, or would have ended up in a hung parliament. Falklands or not, that was what killed Labour off. The same happened in 1987 when there was no pre-election war, and the public by this time was seriously hacked off by the Thatcher government, but once again the SDP robbed a lot of votes off Labour and it meant that an election campaign which had been pretty close and predicted a close result, ended up with Thatcher getting a 100 odd seat majority.
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| Thread on the 2010 general election and the last two pages have been about an event almost 30 years ago!
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| Well its the calm before the storm, theres nothing to discuss about this general election now till the results come in.
Given what Ive just said about the SDP Liberal Alliance robbing Labour of votes and sealing Thatchers two re-elections, the Lib Dems are now polling in the opinion polls at the same level which theoretically gives Cameron the same advantage Thatcher had about a split opposition vote. Unfortunately for him, there are a lot stronger smaller parties around now, which seem to have limited the core Conservative vote. The tubthumping Sun reading nationalist working class who fell in love with Maggie in the 80s is more likely to drift over to the slogans of UKIP or the BNP today.
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| Will the Exit Poll be accurate or not?
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| Quote: sally cinnamon "The problem with that theory is that before they invaded, government policy regarding the Falklands was along the lines of how to get it off our hands quietly.
Foreign office view vs that of the treasury. It's about vested interests and Maggie showed a lot of balls in doing what she did. Under Labour we would have whimpered away with some sanctions and strong words.
I'm still suprised we still have hold of Gibraltar after 13 years of Labour .
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| Quote: The All New Chester Wire "Will the Exit Poll be accurate or not?'"
Feck. We (Tories) are short by 19 but largest party. Bent political system.
Least it's the end of mouthbreather.
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| Actually we would be OK on this with the Ulster Nationalists and others. Lib Dem not enough seats to become king makers.
Welcome to a Conservative government.
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| Quote: Wires71 "Bent political system.
'"
Certainly is if Lib Dems only get 59 seats!
Milliband for PM with Labour, Lib Dems and SDLP.
Then referendum on electoral system.
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| Quote: The All New Chester Wire "Certainly is if Lib Dems only get 59 seats!
Milliband for PM with Labour, Lib Dems and SDLP.
Then referendum on electoral system.'"
I do feel sorry for the Lib Dems. I guess when it comes down to putting a cross in the box, they still have a big hurdle to overcome.
Based on these results, either way you slice it Brown is done, poor result for Lib Dems and the Tories will have a majority when adding in the NI parties and UKIP and others etc.
I cannot conceive of an outcome on these figures that allows Labour to hold power. And for that I am delighted.
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| Won't be any UKIP MPs, will there?
I wonder what percentage of the vote the Lib Dems have got.
Labour might do better yet, but I doubt it.
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| Quote: The All New Chester Wire "Won't be any UKIP MPs, will there?
I wonder what percentage of the vote the Lib Dems have got.
Labour might do better yet, but I doubt it.'"
Its a pure case for PR isnt it?
I think Labour will do worse in key marginals than the exit polls suggest, so I can only see the Conservative seat count rising. I know thats not what you wanted to hear. Anyway you've had it your way for 13 years
Some really interesting questions now. Will Clegg survive if they do indeed lose 3 seats? Kennedy come back? Cable or is he too old? Milliband and perhaps Burnham will be deep in thought of what to do now.
Brown will have his head in his hands. I can't wait to see him prised from No10 with his fingernails scratching down the door as he is dragged away.
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| First one to us.
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| Big swing to Tories. Hopefully Labour vote not bothered there.
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| Quote: Wires71 "Its a pure case for PR isnt it?
'"
No argument with me there.
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1883.jpg Didn't William Webb Ellis pick up the ball and run, someone should really tell Rugby Union.
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| Quote: The All New Chester Wire "First one to us.'"
Which seat? Can't find it on the beeb.
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