I think the straight answer to this is 'nobody knows'. If we recruit the rumoured players we might feel quite bullish - but the team has barely started to take shape yet. Even more difficult is the coach. Even if we recruited an experienced coach with some cup wins behind him I don't (personally speaking) feel it would necessarily guarantee success as there are probably many other factors that come into play. There doesn't seem to be too many Alex Ferguson's around who can get one GF win, but then re-build a team and continue to succeed.
So I think we probably need to get a bit lucky and a young enthusiastic coach that has gone through his apprenticeship may have just as much chance as an experienced older coach with a couple of 'GF" wins.

If we are talking about targets for 2018, or expectations, then clearly the new man needs to ensure we finish top 4 (which I think was TS's target) and to be at least contesting a final. For year 2 I think it should be top 4 and winning a final, preferably the GF. If we recruit some good quality players, anything less than this would surely be failure ? I think we could almost certainly have guaranteed finishing in the top 8 with tired old TS in 2018, so the bar needs to be set at a respectable hight. I don't think Saints, Wigan or Leeds will be setting it any lower.

When some (inc me) retrospectively applied that criteria to Smith for 2016 we (inc me) were lambasted on here.

If he only achieved that with the rumoured signings and others then Bellamy would be an option. If ferguson had become available there would be multiple clubs willing to drop their manager to get him whilst not a guaranteed trophy it's as good a bet as any other.

As if Bellamy was to become available there would be a scramble for his signature and there would be SL clubs making offers too there's nothing wrong with taking an oppertunity to try and improve your chances of success.

He's gone, you know

If you sack a coach because he has not won the GF for you, how can you employ a new one on the basis his target is only to ensure the team finishes in the top 8, or even the top 4 ?

The pressure ramps up on any new coach simply because he must achieve more than his predecessor. Fans expectations will be set higher, and if the new coach only gets the team into the mid table, people will immediately complain that he has not even managed to replicate eg. a CC trophy win. And if it is an Oz coach that is paid far more than a UK one, it rubs salt into the wound.

Interesting year to come.

LOL. Thought you were in exile?

To be fair though 8th and a semi spot would be an improvement.

I think a massive improvement in performance levels is the main thing we are looking for and then we should improve further than 8th. The cup owes a lot to the draw. I'd like to believe we have a chance in both competitions as the season approaches, I definitely don't feel that way yet.

I understand your point, and with Smith it was tricky to draw an arbitrary line in the sand mainly due to the meteoric start and the goodwill built up. We won't be half as sentimental about the next coaches that bring us silverware unless we go on a 23 year barren run again.

I heard Nasser Hussain talk about how he and Duncan Fletcher had the concept of "investing" in a player when selecting for England. The player would be "invested in" by giving caps whilst form would not normally keep them in the side, with the hope this investment is rewarded at a later date by results. However their investment would have a limit, after that the plug is pulled regardless of total investment. This was to avoid long periods of underperformance bourn out of sentiment and a feeling that they "would get it right soon". The arbitrary line in the sand.

So it's analogous, at some point you have to realise when a coach isn't going to do it for you, and 9 years in without the prize may as well be 20 years. It was never going to happen. Seems that Smith and Moran agreed that too.

In answer to your points.

1. Coach stays as achieved above strategic aim and continued investment.
2. Coach stays as achieved above strategic aim and continued investment.

1. Picking up a skeleton squad.
2. Teams need time to adjust to new ideas.
3. Need to repair dressing room.

The target was for 1st year only. 3 years to win GF - max. (Just like the big clubs do - do you think Justin Holbrook will be at Saints in 2026 with 3 CC and 0 GF under his belt?)

Reading the comments of Fitzpatrick in the guardian id be expecting top 4