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Club Owner | 16281 | Warrington Wolves |
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Oct 2004 | 21 years | |
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| Quote Wires71="Wires71"Based on recent history, the stats indicate ...
We have an even chance of getting to Wembley and then an even chance of winning the CC
We will most likely make the playoffs.
We have a 1/4 chance of making the final which we will lose.'"
I like thinking about things probabilistically like this.
At this point, my totally subjective - not based on any statistical modelling information or projections - guesstimate would be:
Making Wembley: 20%
Winning the CC: 10%
Winning the League Leaders' Shield: 10%
Making the playoffs: 55%
Making the Grand Final: 10%
Winning the Grand Final: 5%
That would give us a 1 in 200 chance of winning the double and 1 in 2000 chance of the treble, assuming the events are independent. In practice the odds of making/winning the Grand Final would go up if we won the LLS and might go down if we won the CC, but I haven't factored that in.
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International Star | 2465 | Warrington Wolves |
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Mar 2011 | 14 years | |
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| Can easily see us finishing 7th or 8th unless Price comes up with better tactics.
He seemed totally lost in the 2nd half of last season except for in the cup.
And he tried to play the cup tactics in the league after the CC win. It failed
Our squad is full of top performers but Price isn't getting anywhere near the best out of them and I've seen absolutely nothing to show he knows how to.
I hope I'm wrong but for the 1st time since Lowe's was the coach I can't say I'm looking forward to the season.
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Moderator | 4694 | No Team Selected |
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Apr 2012 | 13 years | |
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Apr 2025 | Feb 2025 | LINK |
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| Quote sally cinnamon="sally cinnamon"I like thinking about things probabilistically like this.
At this point, my totally subjective - not based on any statistical modelling information or projections - guesstimate would be:
Making Wembley: 20%
Winning the CC: 10%
Winning the League Leaders' Shield: 10%
Making the playoffs: 55%
Making the Grand Final: 10%
Winning the Grand Final: 5%
That would give us a 1 in 200 chance of winning the double and 1 in 2000 chance of the treble, assuming the events are independent. In practice the odds of making/winning the Grand Final would go up if we won the LLS and might go down if we won the CC, but I haven't factored that in.'"
Did you allow for the possibility of one of the top clubs being docked points for breaching the salary cap ? I only ask because my model suggests we have a 13% chance of winning the LLS.
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Club Captain | 57 | No Team Selected |
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Aug 2019 | 6 years | |
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Nov 2020 | Nov 2020 | LINK |
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Player Coach | 14621 | Warrington Wolves |
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Jun 2006 | 19 years | |
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| Quote rubber duckie="rubber duckie"It means I don't agree with your stats and odds again.'"
That's fair enough but I don't think your utterance was an English sentence.
"History shows us 345 in top 5 is not 1/4.
It's zero"
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Rank | Posts | Team |
Player Coach | 14621 | Warrington Wolves |
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Jun 2006 | 19 years | |
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| Quote sally cinnamon="sally cinnamon"I like thinking about things probabilistically like this.
At this point, my totally subjective - not based on any statistical modelling information or projections - guesstimate would be:
Making Wembley: 20%
Winning the CC: 10%
Winning the League Leaders' Shield: 10%
Making the playoffs: 55%
Making the Grand Final: 10%
Winning the Grand Final: 5%
That would give us a 1 in 200 chance of winning the double and 1 in 2000 chance of the treble, assuming the events are independent. In practice the odds of making/winning the Grand Final would go up if we won the LLS and might go down if we won the CC, but I haven't factored that in.'"
Based on last 10 seasons.
Making Wembley 6/10 = 60%
Winning the CC 4/10 = 40%
LLS 2/10 = 20%
Making the playoffs = 9/10 = 90%
Making the GF = 4/10 = 40%
Winning the GF = 0/10 = 0%
Price Tenure
Making Wembley 2/2 = 100%
Winning the CC 1/2 = 50%
LLS 0/2 = 0%
Making the playoffs = 2/2 = 100%
Making the GF = 1/2 = 50%
Winning the GF = 0/2 = 0%
Statistically we are better with Price than the average of the last 10 years. But it doesn't feel like that.
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Rank | Posts | Team |
International Star | 4719 | Warrington Wolves |
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Jul 2015 | 10 years | |
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| Let’s be blunt, for 2/3rds of the season we played like a team that had been introduced to each other half an hour before kick off. The most important question is, has SP learned his lesson?
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Player Coach | 14621 | Warrington Wolves |
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Jun 2006 | 19 years | |
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May 2025 | Feb 2025 | LINK |
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| Quote Captain Hook="Captain Hook" has SP learned his lesson?'"
What lesson though? He was of the opinion it was a successful season. It was KP who had do disavow that opinion.
I'm not expecting Price to have a volte-face and deliver the equivalent of the Harlem Globetrotters next season.
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International Star | 1918 | No Team Selected |
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Oct 2012 | 13 years | |
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| It depends on what the objectives of the club are. If Price is instructed to win, obtain a successful win:loss ratio and reach the major finals, his approach is unlikely to change.
However, if KF wants to push this ‘brand’ he may suggest a more attractive style accepting that comes at an occasional slip up.
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International Star | 1100 | No Team Selected |
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May 2011 | 14 years | |
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Oct 2023 | Oct 2023 | LINK |
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| Karl Fitzpatrick, such a joker
He’s got us with more “ stage props” off the field than “ props” on it.
And just to re- emphasise, If last season wasn’t a successful season, I’ll take another unsuccessful season this time round.
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Rank | Posts | Team |
Player Coach | 17459 | Warrington Wolves |
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Mar 2008 | 17 years | |
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| Too right....offer me a CC win on no GF....I'd take it...but I still expect us win everything.
Another pathetic back end stretch or lose any of our 1st three games....I'll run him the airport myself.
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Rank | Posts | Team |
Player Coach | 14621 | Warrington Wolves |
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Jun 2006 | 19 years | |
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| Quote rubber duckie="rubber duckie"Too right....offer me a CC win on no GF....I'd take it...but I still expect us win everything.
Another pathetic back end stretch or lose any of our 1st three games....I'll run him the airport myself.'"
I would take 1 GF win over all the 4 CC wins.
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