Quote sally cinnamon="sally cinnamon"I like thinking about things probabilistically like this.
At this point, my totally subjective - not based on any statistical modelling information or projections - guesstimate would be:
Making Wembley: 20%
Winning the CC: 10%
Winning the League Leaders' Shield: 10%
Making the playoffs: 55%
Making the Grand Final: 10%
Winning the Grand Final: 5%
That would give us a 1 in 200 chance of winning the double and 1 in 2000 chance of the treble, assuming the events are independent. In practice the odds of making/winning the Grand Final would go up if we won the LLS and might go down if we won the CC, but I haven't factored that in.'"
Based on last 10 seasons.
Making Wembley 6/10 = 60%
Winning the CC 4/10 = 40%
LLS 2/10 = 20%
Making the playoffs = 9/10 = 90%
Making the GF = 4/10 = 40%
Winning the GF = 0/10 = 0%
Price Tenure
Making Wembley 2/2 = 100%
Winning the CC 1/2 = 50%
LLS 0/2 = 0%
Making the playoffs = 2/2 = 100%
Making the GF = 1/2 = 50%
Winning the GF = 0/2 = 0%
Statistically we are better with Price than the average of the last 10 years. But it doesn't feel like that.