FORUMS > Warrington Wolves > Where will we finish |
|
|
Rank | Posts | Team |
Moderator | 6045 | |
Joined | Service | Reputation |
Feb 2012 | 13 years | |
Online | Last Post | Last Page |
Nov 2024 | Nov 2024 | LINK |
Milestone Posts |
|
Milestone Years |
|
Location |
|
Signature |
66556_1331046115.jpg :d7dc4b20b2c2dd7b76ac6eac29d5604e_66556.jpg |
Moderator
|
| i genuinely hope that I'm off the mark here as I'm usually in the optimistic camp and it pains me to say it, but as it stands I think the best we can muster is a dogfight for the last play off spot before narrowly missing out.
|
|
|
|
Rank | Posts | Team |
Player Coach | 14129 | |
Joined | Service | Reputation |
Jun 2006 | 18 years | |
Online | Last Post | Last Page |
Nov 2024 | Nov 2024 | LINK |
Milestone Posts |
|
Milestone Years |
|
Location |
|
Signature |
26249_1542017975.jpg :d7dc4b20b2c2dd7b76ac6eac29d5604e_26249.jpg |
|
| Based on recent history, the stats indicate ...
We have an even chance of getting to Wembley and then an even chance of winning the CC
We will most likely make the playoffs.
We have a 1/4 chance of making the final which we will lose.
|
|
|
|
Rank | Posts | Team |
Club Captain | 139 | No Team Selected |
Joined | Service | Reputation |
Jun 2019 | 5 years | |
Online | Last Post | Last Page |
Jul 2020 | Apr 2020 | LINK |
Milestone Posts |
|
Milestone Years |
|
Location |
|
Signature |
: |
|
| Quote: rubber duckie "Top plus win CC and GF....and WCC'"
Nurse.....nurse.....hes out of bed again
|
|
|
|
Rank | Posts | Team |
Player Coach | 17278 | |
Joined | Service | Reputation |
Mar 2008 | 17 years | |
Online | Last Post | Last Page |
Nov 2024 | Nov 2024 | LINK |
Milestone Posts |
|
Milestone Years |
|
Location |
|
Signature |
38352_1407962301.jpg Packs Win Games
Great Packs Make All Backs Look Class
#onceawirealwaysawire:d7dc4b20b2c2dd7b76ac6eac29d5604e_38352.jpg |
|
| History shows us 345 in top 5 is not 1/4.
It's zero
|
|
|
|
|
Rank | Posts | Team |
Player Coach | 14129 | |
Joined | Service | Reputation |
Jun 2006 | 18 years | |
Online | Last Post | Last Page |
Nov 2024 | Nov 2024 | LINK |
Milestone Posts |
|
Milestone Years |
|
Location |
|
Signature |
26249_1542017975.jpg :d7dc4b20b2c2dd7b76ac6eac29d5604e_26249.jpg |
|
| Quote: rubber duckie "History shows us 345 in top 5 is not 1/4.
It's zero'"
Dont understand.
|
|
|
|
Rank | Posts | Team |
Player Coach | 17278 | |
Joined | Service | Reputation |
Mar 2008 | 17 years | |
Online | Last Post | Last Page |
Nov 2024 | Nov 2024 | LINK |
Milestone Posts |
|
Milestone Years |
|
Location |
|
Signature |
38352_1407962301.jpg Packs Win Games
Great Packs Make All Backs Look Class
#onceawirealwaysawire:d7dc4b20b2c2dd7b76ac6eac29d5604e_38352.jpg |
|
| Quote: Wires71 "Dont understand.'"
It means I don't agree with your stats and odds again.
|
|
|
|
|
Rank | Posts | Team |
Club Coach | 16269 | |
Joined | Service | Reputation |
Oct 2004 | 20 years | |
Online | Last Post | Last Page |
Nov 2024 | Nov 2024 | LINK |
Milestone Posts |
|
Milestone Years |
|
Location |
|
Signature |
10289_1326111229.png Challenge Cup winners 2009 2010 2012 2019
League Leaders 2011 2016:d7dc4b20b2c2dd7b76ac6eac29d5604e_10289.png |
|
| Quote: Wires71 "Based on recent history, the stats indicate ...
We have an even chance of getting to Wembley and then an even chance of winning the CC
We will most likely make the playoffs.
We have a 1/4 chance of making the final which we will lose.'"
I like thinking about things probabilistically like this.
At this point, my totally subjective - not based on any statistical modelling information or projections - guesstimate would be:
Making Wembley: 20%
Winning the CC: 10%
Winning the League Leaders' Shield: 10%
Making the playoffs: 55%
Making the Grand Final: 10%
Winning the Grand Final: 5%
That would give us a 1 in 200 chance of winning the double and 1 in 2000 chance of the treble, assuming the events are independent. In practice the odds of making/winning the Grand Final would go up if we won the LLS and might go down if we won the CC, but I haven't factored that in.
|
|
|
|
Rank | Posts | Team |
International Star | 2455 | |
Joined | Service | Reputation |
Mar 2011 | 14 years | |
Online | Last Post | Last Page |
Nov 2024 | Oct 2024 | LINK |
Milestone Posts |
|
Milestone Years |
|
Location |
|
Signature |
: |
|
| Can easily see us finishing 7th or 8th unless Price comes up with better tactics.
He seemed totally lost in the 2nd half of last season except for in the cup.
And he tried to play the cup tactics in the league after the CC win. It failed
Our squad is full of top performers but Price isn't getting anywhere near the best out of them and I've seen absolutely nothing to show he knows how to.
I hope I'm wrong but for the 1st time since Lowe's was the coach I can't say I'm looking forward to the season.
|
|
|
|
|
Rank | Posts | Team |
Moderator | 4688 | No Team Selected |
Joined | Service | Reputation |
Apr 2012 | 13 years | |
Online | Last Post | Last Page |
Nov 2024 | Oct 2024 | LINK |
Milestone Posts |
|
Milestone Years |
|
Location |
|
Signature |
: |
Moderator
|
| Quote: sally cinnamon "I like thinking about things probabilistically like this.
At this point, my totally subjective - not based on any statistical modelling information or projections - guesstimate would be
Did you allow for the possibility of one of the top clubs being docked points for breaching the salary cap ? I only ask because my model suggests we have a 13% chance of winning the LLS.
|
|
|
|
Rank | Posts | Team |
Club Captain | 57 | No Team Selected |
Joined | Service | Reputation |
Aug 2019 | 5 years | |
Online | Last Post | Last Page |
Nov 2020 | Nov 2020 | LINK |
Milestone Posts |
|
Milestone Years |
|
Location |
|
Signature |
: |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Rank | Posts | Team |
Player Coach | 14129 | |
Joined | Service | Reputation |
Jun 2006 | 18 years | |
Online | Last Post | Last Page |
Nov 2024 | Nov 2024 | LINK |
Milestone Posts |
|
Milestone Years |
|
Location |
|
Signature |
26249_1542017975.jpg :d7dc4b20b2c2dd7b76ac6eac29d5604e_26249.jpg |
|
| Quote: rubber duckie "It means I don't agree with your stats and odds again.'"
That's fair enough but I don't think your utterance was an English sentence.
"History shows us 345 in top 5 is not 1/4.
It's zero"
|
|
|
|
Rank | Posts | Team |
Player Coach | 14129 | |
Joined | Service | Reputation |
Jun 2006 | 18 years | |
Online | Last Post | Last Page |
Nov 2024 | Nov 2024 | LINK |
Milestone Posts |
|
Milestone Years |
|
Location |
|
Signature |
26249_1542017975.jpg :d7dc4b20b2c2dd7b76ac6eac29d5604e_26249.jpg |
|
| Quote: sally cinnamon "I like thinking about things probabilistically like this.
At this point, my totally subjective - not based on any statistical modelling information or projections - guesstimate would be
Based on last 10 seasons.
Making Wembley 6/10 Price Tenure
Making Wembley 2/2 = 100%
Winning the CC 1/2 = 50%
LLS 0/2 = 0%
Making the playoffs = 2/2 = 100%
Making the GF = 1/2 = 50%
Winning the GF = 0/2 = 0%
Statistically we are better with Price than the average of the last 10 years. But it doesn't feel like that.
|
|
|
|
Rank | Posts | Team |
Club Captain | 4682 | |
Joined | Service | Reputation |
Jul 2015 | 9 years | |
Online | Last Post | Last Page |
Nov 2024 | Nov 2024 | LINK |
Milestone Posts |
|
Milestone Years |
|
Location |
|
Signature |
74166_1608576718.jpeg Just my opinions unless it's a FACT, in which case it's a fact.:d7dc4b20b2c2dd7b76ac6eac29d5604e_74166.jpeg |
|
| Let’s be blunt, for 2/3rds of the season we played like a team that had been introduced to each other half an hour before kick off. The most important question is, has SP learned his lesson?
|
|
|
|
Rank | Posts | Team |
Player Coach | 14129 | |
Joined | Service | Reputation |
Jun 2006 | 18 years | |
Online | Last Post | Last Page |
Nov 2024 | Nov 2024 | LINK |
Milestone Posts |
|
Milestone Years |
|
Location |
|
Signature |
26249_1542017975.jpg :d7dc4b20b2c2dd7b76ac6eac29d5604e_26249.jpg |
|
| Quote: Captain Hook " has SP learned his lesson?'"
What lesson though? He was of the opinion it was a successful season. It was KP who had do disavow that opinion.
I'm not expecting Price to have a volte-face and deliver the equivalent of the Harlem Globetrotters next season.
|
|
|
|
Rank | Posts | Team |
International Star | 1897 | No Team Selected |
Joined | Service | Reputation |
Oct 2012 | 12 years | |
Online | Last Post | Last Page |
Nov 2024 | Nov 2024 | LINK |
Milestone Posts |
|
Milestone Years |
|
Location |
|
Signature |
: |
|
| It depends on what the objectives of the club are. If Price is instructed to win, obtain a successful win:loss ratio and reach the major finals, his approach is unlikely to change.
However, if KF wants to push this ‘brand’ he may suggest a more attractive style accepting that comes at an occasional slip up.
|
|
|
|
|
|