How is everyone on here doing? Anyone know anyone with the virus or symptoms? Seems odd that Warrington has such a low confirmed number when it's such a hub for jobs and transport. Maybe we're all very good at washing our hands?

All this isolation has made me cynical...

I reckon many people have it and don't even realise it. Also, many people have had it before it even kicked off and never realised it.

Do we really believe now that Wuhan managed to contain it for a couple of months, when it's managed to go global in about in a month?

Let's be honest, this virus has been global for months - many deaths, put down as your traditional flu deaths, will actually have been covid19.

The worst thing is, those who clamoured for a lockdown will claim it was the right thing to do whatever the eventual outcome... keep it below, say, 10000, they will say it worked, if it balloons to 30000+, they will say we never went early enough.

Ultimately, the result of this lockdown can't be judged until about 2050, after the mental health and austerity aftermath is fully seen - the deaths & society breakdown from that will be an interesting and, probably, a painful thing to witness.

It's a new virus and nobody has immunity so it grows rapidly, it wouldn't have been just circulating quietly and then decide to go large. If it had been global for months we would have seen the hospitals overloaded during the peak winter months when capacity was already stretched with seasonal flu and we'd have been hearing on the news about unusual numbers of cases of pneumonia. The reason it first got detected in Wuhan was because the hospitals suddenly became inundated with pneumonia cases and realised something was unusual. Doctors won't just scratch it off as "oh must be a bad case of flu this year", they are a bit more sophisticated than that... But you are right that many people have it / have had it and don't realise it. On the Diamond Princess cruise ship they tested everybody and found 17.9% tested positive and didn't subsequently develop symptoms. Another Chinese study of people tested in Shenzhen found about 20% of those with positive tests didn't develop symptoms. The tests could come up with false positives sometimes but it shows there is probably a chunk of people who get the virus and are unaffected, although they can still be contagious which is why they need lockdowns rather than just asking people with symptoms to isolate. A modelling study on case data from the outbreak in China has tried to estimate the fatality rate adjusting for the fact that there are a lot of cases which are not showing symptoms. https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101 ... 20031104v2 This is the key table from that study which someone has posted on Twitter: https://twitter.com/NAChristakis/status ... 89/photo/1 The overall case fatality rate (adjusting for cases without symptoms) is 1.6% but there is a big difference by age. It's about 0.1% for people in their 20s, 0.2% for 30s, 0.4% for 40s, shoots up to nearly 10% for 70s and 18% for 80s.

It's a new virus and nobody has immunity so it grows rapidly, it wouldn't have been just circulating quietly and then decide to go large. If it had been global for months we would have seen the hospitals overloaded during the peak winter months when capacity was already stretched with seasonal flu and we'd have been hearing on the news about unusual numbers of cases of pneumonia. The reason it first got detected in Wuhan was because the hospitals suddenly became inundated with pneumonia cases and realised something was unusual. Doctors won't just scratch it off as "oh must be a bad case of flu this year", they are a bit more sophisticated than that... But you are right that many people have it / have had it and don't realise it. On the Diamond Princess cruise ship they tested everybody and found 17.9% tested positive and didn't subsequently develop symptoms. Another Chinese study of people tested in Shenzhen found about 20% of those with positive tests didn't develop symptoms. The tests could come up with false positives sometimes but it shows there is probably a chunk of people who get the virus and are unaffected, although they can still be contagious which is why they need lockdowns rather than just asking people with symptoms to isolate. A modelling study on case data from the outbreak in China has tried to estimate the fatality rate adjusting for the fact that there are a lot of cases which are not showing symptoms. https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101 ... 20031104v2 This is the key table from that study which someone has posted on Twitter: https://twitter.com/NAChristakis/status ... 89/photo/1 The overall case fatality rate (adjusting for cases without symptoms) is 1.6% but there is a big difference by age. It's about 0.1% for people in their 20s, 0.2% for 30s, 0.4% for 40s, shoots up to nearly 10% for 70s and 18% for 80s.

The quickest way to deal with this is to test everyone. Tell the people who've got it to quarantine themselves and stay away from people who haven't. Let the ones with it get better and then 'release' them so too speak.

As it is they're aiming for 25,000 tests per day. Based on a population of 60 million it'll take them over 6 and a half years to test everyone.

My dad in January had a really bad case of 'flu'. He's fit and healthy and never goes the doctors but he had a headache, aching all over, high temperature and a sore throat and was so bad that he did go the doctors and they told him he had a 'viral infection'. It lasted just under two weeks. I'm certain he's had it. I think it's been around over here much earlier than reported.

! was bad for about 9 weeks over Christmas & to the end of Feb. Started as a sniffly cold which eased off after a week then went straight on my chest & throat which i put down to a heavy cold. Eased off end of January then came back again a week later ,chest/throat & i'm still full of catarrh. Even my wife had a bad chest for about 3 weeks, which is something she never gets even after being a smoker for 50 years , & pains in her head & face.

A lot of people with similar stories (including myself). Probably all passed off as varying degrees of winter flu.

Sally, you say this couldn't be covid19, but how do you explain Wuhan supposedly containing it for over 2 months (much of it without any restrictions in place) and then, once the Chinese go public with it, it suddenly goes around the globe in about a fortnight?.... Do people from Wuhan not travel anywhere or, more likely, was it being spread globally from as early as November?

Seeing how this spreads, anyone believing China kept this contained for over 2 months needs their heads examining.

1. When you get a viral infection it also provides a back door for bacteria, so its a common progression to subsequently get bacterial pneumonia.

2. The symptoms of Covid 19 and seasonal flu can be similar. Certainly both give a high temperature. Covid 19 produces a persistent cough (75% cases), then both viruses can result in pneumonia.

3. I think the earliest date for Coronavirus in the UK was around January 30th. BUT that would have been someone who was both presenting with the symptoms and who tested positive for Coronavirus. What we know now is that there are people who get infected but don't exhibit symptoms (asymptomatic, possibly 20%) and people who get very mild symptoms (headaches, sore throat) who think they dont have coronavirus. Hence the earliest date for the virus in the UK could have been sooner than January.

4. Testing is an issue. The government have been very slow to get PPE to the hospitals but testing has been equally bad.

a) The current test extracts the virus RNA, then amplifies it to get more 'sample', then checks the genetic code is the same as for Coronavirus. This is called the' PCR test' and is now only available in hospitals. I don't know where the government is getting its figure of 'confirmed infected' but certainly it is way, way too low because the number of deaths should be approximately 1% of total infected.


b) A new test being evaluated looks at our own antibodies to see if we have already had the infection. If you think about it, this is really important because if the number of asymptomatic plus very mild symptoms (30-40% ??) are now immune from the disease they can safely return to work (critical for NHS staff and other essential services). Everybody will of course will wan't to know where they stand as well. Unfortunately, if I remember correctly, the number of antibodies we generate against any virus will tail off when the infection has been controlled. After ?? 30 days the antibody level may be too low to measure and produce a negative result. So we need them to roll out this test and distribute very large numbers of the kits asap.

I know one thing + that is this dreadful virus is giving people paranoia + that includes me.I’ve had a bad chest + a little shortness of breath for least 3 weeks + it’s still lingering about + it’s def affecting my mental health + anxiety as I cannot see my partner who had a kidney transplant for another 3 months possibly longer + probably won’t get to see our dying dog either as he won’t last much longer due to heart disease.God is it wrong of me to hate China so much?

Sadly, you're likely to be the tiniest drop in the ocean when it comes to mental health issues after this is done.

This lockdown policy will, in years to come, be seen as the moment that the lemmings did truly throw themselves off the cliff.

If ever there was a moment when the public made themselves subservient to the state, then this will be seen as it.

Good luck to having the money to leave this island when all this is over... your travel insurance will make sure that the only people going abroad will be the rich - it's back to 2 weeks in Rhyl for the majority.

If this means I have to purchase a holiday home in the uk then its all good for meicon_smile.gif

Didn't the Isle of Man close it borders as soon as it found one person with corona virus . Apparently, this number has gone up to five. I would think the IoM would be the ideal situation to find out how this bug is spread . It can't be travelling around the world exclusively by personal contact, surely to goodness.

You'll get through this RM, and you and your partner will have one amazing reunion.
Our family is under house arrest as well, but not quite under such difficult circumstances, so I can empathise to a degree.
Wishing you all the very best!