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Quote: Dita's Slot Meter "I'm not going to belittle this outbreak. People need to be sensible and behave in an appropriate manner, which should be the case whenever there is a serious virus around and also in general life - I'm still bemused at the amount of people who obviously never washed their hands before this blew up.

HOWEVER, the one thing that is definitely boiling my urine over this virus, is the general over reaction in the media, which I believe has contributed massively to the whole panic that has ensued.

With this in mind and seeing that most on here are old enough to give an answer, I have to ask the question about what would have been the reaction had this happened in pre Internet days?

Seeing that in 1989, 60% of the population caught flu and 26000 people died, yet nobody batted an eyelid, never mind postponed a rugby or football match?

Again, I'm not suggesting we ignore what is happening and we obviously need a concerted effort to keep things under control, but is it possible that many have simply become hysterical, after being fed a constant stream of doom online and on the TV and we are taking things out of proportion with talk of total lockdowns and army on the streets?'"

Well said, DSM.
A sense of perspective is needed from the media. Any death from this is tragic, yet, compared with 1989's figures, it's a "drop in the ocean", and despite me being a 20 year old news watcher, at the time, I'm at a loss to recall THAT tragedy, if it EVER made national headlines, in the year of Tianamon Sq, Hillsborough, Berlin Wall/Communism's decrease, etc.

I've said for years, this country isn't ruled by the Queen (ceremonially) and the Houses of Parliament. It's ruled by the heads of the BBC, Sky News, ITN, the tabloids/broadsheets and their collective minions. They make and break this country. Winkers.

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Sadly, we live in a 24/7 world news goldfish bowl. Whenever anything noteworthy happens we have endless experts, footage and analysis all day every day regurgitating the same stories and pummeling us with shock and awe statistics.

It feeds paranoia, fear, insecurity and panic and the media are to blame.

Oh for the days wben you'd be watching Coronation Street, they'd be a brief interruption to tell you of some nuclear disaster then it would be back to Stan Ogden post-haste.

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Quote: lefty goldblatt "Well said, DSM.
A sense of perspective is needed from the media. Any death from this is tragic, yet, compared with 1989's figures, it's a "drop in the ocean", and despite me being a 20 year old news watcher, at the time, I'm at a loss to recall THAT tragedy, if it EVER made national headlines, in the year of Tianamon Sq, Hillsborough, Berlin Wall/Communism's decrease, etc.

I've said for years, this country isn't ruled by the Queen (ceremonially) and the Houses of Parliament. It's ruled by the heads of the BBC, Sky News, ITN, the tabloids/broadsheets and their collective minions. They make and break this country. Winkers.'"


Exactly. If you go on Facebook or Twitter, you would think its the end of days.

We really have become the lemmings being led to the cliff's edge...

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Quote: morrisseyisawire "

Oh for the days wben you'd be watching Coronation Street, they'd be a brief interruption to tell you of some nuclear disaster then it would be back to Stan Ogden post-haste.'"


For anybody of a certain age, surely the TV highlight of the 20th century was the news flash that was the SAS raid on the Iranian embassy??... icon_biggrin.gif

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Quote: Dita's Slot Meter "For anybody of a certain age, surely the TV highlight of the 20th century was the news flash that was the SAS raid on the Iranian embassy??... Yup, interrupted the snooker final. Higgins lost, too. Booo

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Quote: lefty goldblatt "Yup, interrupted the snooker final. Higgins lost, too. Booo'"


Thorburn v Higgins... 2 extremes of snooker around one table icon_biggrin.gif

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Quote: morleys_deckchair "please dont go near any old people.'"
At the gym tonight speaking to a regular who is 80yrs old + fitter than most people half his age.Said it’s the only pleasure he gets + it gets him out of his house for few hours but the words he said to me struck a chord.This virus might see him off but he won’t let loneliness kill him either.

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Quote: Dita's Slot Meter "I'm not going to belittle this outbreak. People need to be sensible and behave in an appropriate manner, which should be the case whenever there is a serious virus around and also in general life - I'm still bemused at the amount of people who obviously never washed their hands before this blew up.

HOWEVER, the one thing that is definitely boiling my urine over this virus, is the general over reaction in the media, which I believe has contributed massively to the whole panic that has ensued.

With this in mind and seeing that most on here are old enough to give an answer, I have to ask the question about what would have been the reaction had this happened in pre Internet days?

Seeing that in 1989, 60% of the population caught flu and 26000 people died, yet nobody batted an eyelid, never mind postponed a rugby or football match?

Again, I'm not suggesting we ignore what is happening and we obviously need a concerted effort to keep things under control, but is it possible that many have simply become hysterical, after being fed a constant stream of doom online and on the TV and we are taking things out of proportion with talk of total lockdowns and army on the streets?'"


I suppose back in '89 we were rather more accepting of lifes' little tripwires. Nowadays parents take their kids 30 yards down the road in a Humbee in case a terrorist attempts to kidnap them. Expectations are now very high on the quality of life and people feel a sense of entitlement. The Daily Mail headline would have probably been ' Scandal as supply of spades dries up'. The Telegraph would have been 'Buy Spear and Jackson shares as sales rocket'. The Sun ? " See our flu-tit of the month on page 3' . Just a word of caution on the numbers though; there is no test for the flu and deaths by flu are not recorded so those will be estimated numbers.

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It will be interesting to see the beneficial effects the reported lack of air pollution, brought about by home working ,will have on on the severity of overall infections.

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Quote: Winslade's Offload "Just a word of caution on the numbers though; there is no test for the flu and deaths by flu are not recorded so those will be estimated numbers.'"

Quite a bit like the "grabbing numbers out of thin air" for this virus. Three weeks ago, "experts" predicted a daily exponential rise in deaths. It simply hasn't happened (thankfully). Figures banded about, only go to scare not only our public, but the whole planet.
We don't need to be told how many they think will die, it's immaterial. All we need to know, is how to (sensibly/practically) go about our lives.

These "experts" AND media scaremongerers, are little better than the Grim Reaper.

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Quote: ninearches "It will be interesting to see the beneficial effects the reported lack of air pollution, brought about by home working ,will have on on the severity of overall infections.'"


God forbid that annoying brat Greta Thunderc**t be given more exposure.

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Quote: lefty goldblatt "Quite a bit like the "grabbing numbers out of thin air" for this virus. Three weeks ago, "experts" predicted a daily exponential rise in deaths. It simply hasn't happened (thankfully). Figures banded about, only go to scare not only our public, but the whole planet.'"


It is happening right now.

The daily count over the past 2 weeks in Italy is
28, 41, 49, 36, 133, 97, 168, 196, 189, 250, 175, 368, 349, 345, 475

Spain:
1, 1, 5, 2, 7, 13, 6, 19, 31, 47, 63, 98, 48, 191, 105

France:
0, 3, 2, 7, 3, 11, 3, 15, 13, 18, 12, 36, 21, 27, 89

UK:
0, 1, 1, 0, 1, 2, 1, 2, 2, 1, 10, 14, 20, 16, 33

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavir ... try/italy/
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavir ... try/spain/
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavir ... ry/france/
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/

When the number of cases requiring critical care reaches a point where the health service is overwhelmed, the mortality rate jumps up because people who otherwise could have survived given the right treatment end up dying too.

The number of cases requiring critical care will be directly proportional to the total number of cases in the population. The faster that grows the faster we reach the tipping point which has overwhelmed Italy.

Once at that point, as the caseload in the population rises the death rate is going to keep spiralling upwards as more and more people need care and can't get it because the ICUs are overfull to capacity.

Exponential growth starts slowly when your baseline numbers are low but as they grow it gets out of control rapidly.

The government is trying to slow the growth to delay or hopefully stop us reaching a point where the health service is overwhelmed but there is little slack in the system and our path is only a couple of weeks behind Italy unless we take serious measures to stop. People carrying on as normal out in pubs and gyms is just going to push us to the Italy path sooner.

I wonder at what point the penny will drop for people who are still trying to make comparisons to being 'just a bad flu season'.

Every country in Western Europe is being forced into these extreme measures. In the UK its Boris Johnson's Brexit government doing it - the same people who hate the BBC, the establishment, experts. They laugh in the face of everyone who warns that Brexit is going to be a disaster and carry on anyway. But they are spooked enough by this to be slamming through emergency measures that they know will be unpopular.

A large chunk of the measures in the emergency powers they are introducing to Parliament next week are basically about facilitating the rapid disposal of bodies because they are worried the funerals and burial system is not going to be able to cope with the surge in demand over the next few months.

They never did this with swine flu, or the other bad flu seasons, because they weren't fearing death counts in the hundreds of thousands and the NHS collapsing. That is a very high risk now unless extreme steps are taken which is why they are acting like a wartime government.
Quote: lefty goldblatt "Quite a bit like the "grabbing numbers out of thin air" for this virus. Three weeks ago, "experts" predicted a daily exponential rise in deaths. It simply hasn't happened (thankfully). Figures banded about, only go to scare not only our public, but the whole planet.'"


It is happening right now.

The daily count over the past 2 weeks in Italy is
28, 41, 49, 36, 133, 97, 168, 196, 189, 250, 175, 368, 349, 345, 475

Spain:
1, 1, 5, 2, 7, 13, 6, 19, 31, 47, 63, 98, 48, 191, 105

France:
0, 3, 2, 7, 3, 11, 3, 15, 13, 18, 12, 36, 21, 27, 89

UK:
0, 1, 1, 0, 1, 2, 1, 2, 2, 1, 10, 14, 20, 16, 33

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavir ... try/italy/
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavir ... try/spain/
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavir ... ry/france/
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/

When the number of cases requiring critical care reaches a point where the health service is overwhelmed, the mortality rate jumps up because people who otherwise could have survived given the right treatment end up dying too.

The number of cases requiring critical care will be directly proportional to the total number of cases in the population. The faster that grows the faster we reach the tipping point which has overwhelmed Italy.

Once at that point, as the caseload in the population rises the death rate is going to keep spiralling upwards as more and more people need care and can't get it because the ICUs are overfull to capacity.

Exponential growth starts slowly when your baseline numbers are low but as they grow it gets out of control rapidly.

The government is trying to slow the growth to delay or hopefully stop us reaching a point where the health service is overwhelmed but there is little slack in the system and our path is only a couple of weeks behind Italy unless we take serious measures to stop. People carrying on as normal out in pubs and gyms is just going to push us to the Italy path sooner.

I wonder at what point the penny will drop for people who are still trying to make comparisons to being 'just a bad flu season'.

Every country in Western Europe is being forced into these extreme measures. In the UK its Boris Johnson's Brexit government doing it - the same people who hate the BBC, the establishment, experts. They laugh in the face of everyone who warns that Brexit is going to be a disaster and carry on anyway. But they are spooked enough by this to be slamming through emergency measures that they know will be unpopular.

A large chunk of the measures in the emergency powers they are introducing to Parliament next week are basically about facilitating the rapid disposal of bodies because they are worried the funerals and burial system is not going to be able to cope with the surge in demand over the next few months.

They never did this with swine flu, or the other bad flu seasons, because they weren't fearing death counts in the hundreds of thousands and the NHS collapsing. That is a very high risk now unless extreme steps are taken which is why they are acting like a wartime government.


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Quote: lefty goldblatt "Quite a bit like the "grabbing numbers out of thin air" for this virus. Three weeks ago, "experts" predicted a daily exponential rise in deaths. It simply hasn't happened (thankfully). Figures banded about, only go to scare not only our public, but the whole planet.
We don't need to be told how many they think will die, it's immaterial. All we need to know, is how to (sensibly/practically) go about our lives.

These "experts" AND media scaremongerers, are little better than the Grim Reaper.'"


My dad will be 100 next August (and we hope to get a 1st team squad member over to present him with his cake). Mrs Winslade had a 6hr heart operation in Broad Green 3 yrs ago, she suffers from bursts of high heart rate (atrial fibrillation) and is permanently on beta blockers and an anti-coagulant. Both of them are high risk (I would say very high risk) if they catch this thing. So I'm watching developments like a hawk. I am only interested in the facts and what is really happening, not media spin or newspaper distortion. Apologies if I have got this wrong, but I suspect what you are really thinking is that the virus is something similar to the flu and the media have whipped up public fear and anxiety. And since the numbers that we are currently seeing are low, where is the problem ?

I don't think you will be convinced about any argument based on numbers and that is absolutely fine (seriously). Some people hunker down with data and like the constipated mathematician, work it out with a pencil. Others are suspicious of what 'experts are telling them' and prefer to see what is happening with their own eyes. So I went to bed last night thinking about how I might, as George Smiley would say 'turn you'. If you go to the BBC News there is a satellite picture of the pollution over China shown as a bright yellow splurge. It's side by side with a recent picture showing virtually no yellow at all. So China has ground to a halt, their economy has all but shut down. We don't need to send a reporter over there to see what is happening. BUT, China doesn't suffer from Daily Express headlines claiming the end of the world is coming, and there isn't a lot of different TV channels sensationalising the news. As we all know, in China there is only one media source and its the official one. So China have not panicked, but they have shut down their transport systems and industry and and in doing so done a huge amount of damage to their economy. Would they do that for seasonal flu ?

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Without wanting to sound morbid or too heartless, I guess it all comes down to what is an acceptable number of deaths at the end of all this?

We've seen that back in 1989, we didn't blink an eyelid at 26000 dying. 30 years on, we've got the health officials saying keeping it below 20000 will be seen as a good job (which I think it probably will be) and yet people are horrified by the thought.

Maybe generation snowflake actually does exist and we have built an entitled generation who believe death can and should be avoided, and not what it actually is, and that's a sad inevitability.

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There has been talk of this virus being caused by wild animal consumption or being caused by a disease carried by bats, in either case surely the remedy is out there for a vaccine by capturing some of these bats or testing China's wild animals.
On the other hand, perhaps this virus has been known to be deadly all along to such an extent that economic disruption has been a small price to pay. My money is on a laboratory produced toxin.

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