Quote Fatbelly="Fatbelly"
I have not read the new formula but I have read on the BBC that League points accumulated prior to the Play Offs in some way count during the Play Offs, which could mean that it will be more difficult to win SL from 4th or 5th. This should make regular season games even more important.'"
In terms of the making regular season games more important part of it, this solves one part but not another. You need to be in the top 4 at the end of the season. Nobody will be doing a Leeds and winning from 5th.
However if you're in the top 4, the only advantage to coming 1st or 2nd is that you get a home tie in the semi final. There is no more 'week off' and no more 'second bite at the cherry'.
As to whether it still pays to do the whole tactical rotation thing, resting players, this depends on how strong you are and how much of a cushion you are likely to have above 5th. If you're the type of team that's likely to come 3rd or 4th, and you drop a couple of games in the first part of the season and are running 5th when the league splits, bear in mind you are having to play catch up in the final rounds against other top 8 teams, there won't be the easier teams at the bottom any more. So it makes it slightly harder to catch up if you're outside the top 4 at the split.
But for the strongest couple of teams in the league, it will probably still pay to do the tactical rotation. Generally there are about 10 to 14 points between the teams that finish 1st and 5th, so if you're a team that under normal circumstances would finish top you have about 5 to 7 games slippage over a season. I've used the historic 10 to 14 point margin because although you could argue that under the new system with the final rounds being played just between the top 8 it may be a little tighter, there's also a chance that over the past few years the teams that have finished top have dropped a couple of games through squad rotation anyway so otherwise they would have been even higher ahead.
Where the real criticism will come in is if we have a situation where the club finishing top is 8 or so points ahead of the club finishing 4th (as often happens), and then the club finishing 4th wins the playoff semi final away from home: boom, the league leaders are out. This is the same thing that happens in the rugby union Premiership and it gets criticised.
And whats the incentive to finish top rather than second? You play your playoff against the team finishing 4th rather than the team finishing 3rd.
Overall I think in terms of changing incentives the main changes are:
- teams that finish 9th-12th have the incentive of fighting to stay in Super League, whereas currently they have nothing
- teams that are in the 3rd-6th type of spaces will be fighting for top 4 spots, wheres previously they were guaranteed playoffs in a top 8
- there will be no more easy first round of playoffs (or week off) where some teams get to play 7th or 8th ranked team
What it doesn't address is:
- there is no extra incentive for finishing top rather than second
- there can be a large gap in points over the league table between 1st and 4th, and 4th only has to win one playoff semi final away from home to knock them out
- in the end it all boils down to the last two weeks of the season and who is fit/in form versus who isn't