| FORUMS > Warrington Wolves > Coronavirus |
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| Quote: the flying biscuit "
Twenty Eight thousands deaths from FLU in 2014/15 flu season..!!!!!
not a panic buy in sight, not a shut down, not a note in the news ...
You're right Sal 35 corona deaths is nothing like the Flu'"
28,000 was across the whole season. 35 was the number of deaths from coronavirus yesterday.
There will be way, way more than 28,000 deaths from coronavirus before it is over and people will not be able to comprehend why they spent the early stages trying to close their minds to all the evidence and pretend that this was just like seasonal flu. |
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| Quote: sally cinnamon "28,000 was across the whole season. 35 was the number of deaths from coronavirus yesterday.
There will be way, way more than 28,000 deaths from coronavirus before it is over and people will not be able to comprehend why they spent the early stages trying to close their minds to all the evidence and pretend that this was just like seasonal flu.'"
1. Why do you believe there will be more than 28,000 deaths in the UK, when deaths in China (3 months into the pandemic and with a population 25x greater) are 3,208.
2. How do you explain the information from China showing a large slow down of infections and the fact that the children are going back to school?httpshttps://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/SEdJPEP6cTl7HYHz5VeGCDzVoSA
I'm not closed minded (in this regard anyway) just conscious that SARS was reported to be the end of the world once - and wasn't. So long as we all abide by the government advise and maintain hygiene I see no issue with attempting to reduce the panic and hyperbole. |
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| Quote: Dezzies_right_hook "It's bollix. The dwp spend 1-2% of their budget on out of work benefits S around 50% on pensions!!!'"
My data was from the independent Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR)
[/i
Where was your competing data from? |
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| Quote: Winslade's Offload "I thought it would be interesting to look into the claim that "60% of the population will get Coronavirus". Is it it scaremongering so we change our behaviour, or perhaps just a guess ?
If we assume that we have a vaccine for the virus then how many people would we need to vaccinate in order to bring it down to a safe level ? This is a well trodden path as it's been done for years with all sorts of infectious diseases both in animals and man. The most important number is R0, the number of people that one infected individual will him/herself go on to infect. For measles its a big number at around 17 and the maths requires that you vaccinate approximately 95% of the population. The WHO figure for Coronavirus is approximately 2.5, so it's more contagious than seasonal flu but a lot less than measles.
When the fraction of people that don't have the virus is less than 1/R0 then the infection can't continue and starts to die out. So for Coronavirus 1/2.5
Can't fault the logic. Of course the actual number of cases will be much higher than reported because people with symptoms will stay at home and unless they seek a test will not be tested. Some will have even had the virus already and not known (asymptomatic). As a consequence the mortality rate is hugely over calculated. Luckily the R0 is relatively low.
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Quote: sally cinnamon "
The next few months will be something totally unprecedented for any of us not old enough to remember the war and tragic on a personal level for many people. A lot of people are in denial at the moment and carrying on as normal and will be negligently spreading the virus to people who will become critically ill or die.
'"
I hope you are wrong but of course any death is a personal tragedy. I take issue with the last sentence though because it is perfectly possible to abide by the policy of limiting social interaction, hand washing and hygiene without becoming paralysed by the fear by the media making doomsday predictions.
The good news is there is STILL only 1 reported case in Warrington and 6 in Lancashire. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-51768274 |
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Quote: sally cinnamon "
The next few months will be something totally unprecedented for any of us not old enough to remember the war and tragic on a personal level for many people. A lot of people are in denial at the moment and carrying on as normal and will be negligently spreading the virus to people who will become critically ill or die.
'"
I hope you are wrong but of course any death is a personal tragedy. I take issue with the last sentence though because it is perfectly possible to abide by the policy of limiting social interaction, hand washing and hygiene without becoming paralysed by the fear by the media making doomsday predictions.
The good news is there is STILL only 1 reported case in Warrington and 6 in Lancashire. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-51768274 | |
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| Quote: sally cinnamon "28,000 was across the whole season. 35 was the number of deaths from coronavirus yesterday.
There will be way, way more than 28,000 deaths from coronavirus before it is over and people will not be able to comprehend why they spent the early stages trying to close their minds to all the evidence and pretend that this was just like seasonal flu.'"
Sal what are talking... 35 deaths is the total so far... Not just yesterday... (Just seen the count is now 53)
Yes lots of people will show flu like symptoms but it's not as deadly as sars or mers it's the fact it appears much more easily transmitted From person to person is why people should be concerned.
But if your in good health you will be fine... FINE.... MIKEL ARTETA CALLUM HUDSON ODIO, THE LAD AT MACLAREN F1..... FINE
As with every year if you have underlying health conditions it's going to be serious....
I am genuinely struggling to comprehend why we didn't do this panicking when thousands of flu victims were dying..
AND THE SCHOOLS STILL STAY OPEN... |
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| Quote: Wires71 "Can't fault the logic. Of course the actual number of cases will be much higher than reported because people with symptoms will stay at home and unless they seek a test will not be tested. Some will have even had the virus already and not known (asymptomatic). As a consequence the mortality rate is hugely over calculated. Luckily the R0 is relatively low.'"
The R0 figure and that for the mortality (1%) are already known. Testing will continue in hospitals so they will presumably have an accurate figure (No deaths * 100) for those infected. But they also have other methods for calculating infections if you think about it. There is no test for seasonal flu, and deaths are not recorded due to flu, so where did the data on flu deaths come from ? The answer is they looked at additional mortality over the period and made an estimate.
But finally, think about what you are saying; You disagree with the health experts and believe the mortality figures are hugely overestimated. Do you think it likely that they have made a mistake, or you ? |
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1,5000 deaths max is what I predict in the UK.Some of the numbers mentioned on here are bonkers.It will be over before you can say Pet Shop Boys who ironically I had tickets to watch but not surprisingly will probably be cancelled in May.
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Quote: Winslade's Offload "The R0 figure and that for the mortality (1%) are already known. Testing will continue in hospitals so they will presumably have an accurate figure (No deaths * 100) for those infected. But they also have other methods for calculating infections if you think about it. There is no test for seasonal flu, and deaths are not recorded due to flu, so where did the data on flu deaths come from ? The answer is they looked at additional mortality over the period and made an estimate.
But finally, think about what you are saying; You disagree with the health experts and believe the mortality figures are hugely overestimated. Do you think it likely that they have made a mistake, or you ?'"
I'm happy to be wrong... but the death rate currently is calculated by deaths / tested cases known.
As of today (Source Source: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/ ... s-covid-19
So we have ...
1. (Global) Asymptomatic people who don't get tested, survive and never get counted.
2. (UK) Small sample size.
3. You cannot use additional mortality over the period to estimate corona deaths yet.
In the early days of the crisis in Wuhan, China, the CFR was more than 4 percent. As the virus spread to other parts of Hubei, the number fell to 2 percent. As it spread through China, the reported CFR dropped further, to 0.2 to 0.4 percent. As testing begins to include more asymptomatic and mild cases, more realistic numbers are starting to surface. New reports from the World Health Organization that estimate the global death rate of COVID-19 to be 3.4 percent, higher than previously believed, is not cause for further panic. This number is subject to the same usual forces that we would normally expect to inaccurately embellish death rate statistics early in an epidemic. . Source:https://slate.com/technology/2020/03/coronavirus-mortality-rate-lower-than-we-think.html
That's why I believe it will be less than the figure of 3.4% given by the WHO which already is considered by the UK CMO Chris Whitty as hugely over calculated by a factor of over 3x. That is to what I was referring, so yes I do disagree with the WHO expert and so does the UK SMO, so let's hope that's right. |
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Quote: Winslade's Offload "The R0 figure and that for the mortality (1%) are already known. Testing will continue in hospitals so they will presumably have an accurate figure (No deaths * 100) for those infected. But they also have other methods for calculating infections if you think about it. There is no test for seasonal flu, and deaths are not recorded due to flu, so where did the data on flu deaths come from ? The answer is they looked at additional mortality over the period and made an estimate.
But finally, think about what you are saying; You disagree with the health experts and believe the mortality figures are hugely overestimated. Do you think it likely that they have made a mistake, or you ?'"
I'm happy to be wrong... but the death rate currently is calculated by deaths / tested cases known.
As of today (Source Source: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/ ... s-covid-19
So we have ...
1. (Global) Asymptomatic people who don't get tested, survive and never get counted.
2. (UK) Small sample size.
3. You cannot use additional mortality over the period to estimate corona deaths yet.
In the early days of the crisis in Wuhan, China, the CFR was more than 4 percent. As the virus spread to other parts of Hubei, the number fell to 2 percent. As it spread through China, the reported CFR dropped further, to 0.2 to 0.4 percent. As testing begins to include more asymptomatic and mild cases, more realistic numbers are starting to surface. New reports from the World Health Organization that estimate the global death rate of COVID-19 to be 3.4 percent, higher than previously believed, is not cause for further panic. This number is subject to the same usual forces that we would normally expect to inaccurately embellish death rate statistics early in an epidemic. . Source:https://slate.com/technology/2020/03/coronavirus-mortality-rate-lower-than-we-think.html
That's why I believe it will be less than the figure of 3.4% given by the WHO which already is considered by the UK CMO Chris Whitty as hugely over calculated by a factor of over 3x. That is to what I was referring, so yes I do disagree with the WHO expert and so does the UK SMO, so let's hope that's right. | |
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| Quote: the flying biscuit "Sal what poop are talking... 35 deaths is the total so far... Not just yesterday... (Just seen the count is now 53)'"
Correct - it was 14 yesterday so the total was 35 at that point; 20 today so the latest count is 55. The point is we are still in the early stages and the rate of growth is fast, so the numbers will rapidly rise and be well more than 28,000 before the pandemic is over. |
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| Quote: runningman29 "It will be over before you can say Pet Shop Boys who ironically I had tickets to watch but not surprisingly will probably be cancelled in May.'"
What have [you] done to deserve this? |
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Quote: sally cinnamon "Correct - it was 14 yesterday so the total was 35 at that point; 20 today so the latest count is 55. The point is we are still in the early stages and the rate of growth is fast, so the numbers will rapidly rise and be well more than 28,000 before the pandemic is over.'"
Yet paradoxically today's UK new cases was well down on the last four days. (I am not saying that will continue just an observation)
https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboar ... 484dd4bb14 |
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Quote: sally cinnamon "Correct - it was 14 yesterday so the total was 35 at that point; 20 today so the latest count is 55. The point is we are still in the early stages and the rate of growth is fast, so the numbers will rapidly rise and be well more than 28,000 before the pandemic is over.'"
Yet paradoxically today's UK new cases was well down on the last four days. (I am not saying that will continue just an observation)
https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboar ... 484dd4bb14 | |
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| Quote: Wires71 "Yet paradoxically today's UK new cases was well down on the last four days. (I am not saying that will continue just an observation)
They've stopped testing though, haven't they, so the new cases number will slow down, while the death numbers will rise more dramatically?
What's interesting now is how the population will react to Boris's request to voluntarily go into lockdown. I'm not convinced people will be too keen to inflict economic hardship on themselves in order to protect the health of people they don't know.
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Quote: Wires71 "I'm happy to be wrong... but the death rate currently is calculated by deaths / tested cases known.
As of today (Source Source:
The true mortality rate is unknown and the estimates will bounce around at this early stage but as more data comes in, we will have a more accurate picture.
To estimate it properly you need to factor in the time delay between testing positive and dying (grim topic I know), because many new cases test positive between the time someone tests positive and dies. You should divide the number of people who die on a particular day with the number of cases at the point they were likely to be infected. This study which came out a few days ago uses a 14-day delay and estimates a mortality rate of 5.6% in China and 15.2% outside China. The difference is likely to be explained by the Chinese doing more testing so its a more representative sample.
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lani ... 73-3099(20)30195-X/fulltext
This study of patients tested on the Diamond Princess cruise ship (where people were tested regardless of whether they showed symptoms) found 17.9% of those testing positive to be asymptomatic (ie they did not develop symptoms or at least hadn't at the time of the study).
https://www.eurosurveillance.org/conten ... 10.2000180
So if you assume 18% of people who contract covid are asymptomatic, 82% have symptoms and amongst those with symptoms the mortality rate is 5%, then the overall mortality rate for everyone who contracts it would be 4.1%.
In practice it will be lower than that, because the unknown parameter is how many people in the regions in China where this test took place were symptomatic but didn't get tested. China was pretty rigorous at testing people with symptoms so this might not be a big proportion, but the bigger that proportion was, the more the overall mortality rate falls below 4.1%. |
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Quote: Wires71 "I'm happy to be wrong... but the death rate currently is calculated by deaths / tested cases known.
As of today (Source Source:
The true mortality rate is unknown and the estimates will bounce around at this early stage but as more data comes in, we will have a more accurate picture.
To estimate it properly you need to factor in the time delay between testing positive and dying (grim topic I know), because many new cases test positive between the time someone tests positive and dies. You should divide the number of people who die on a particular day with the number of cases at the point they were likely to be infected. This study which came out a few days ago uses a 14-day delay and estimates a mortality rate of 5.6% in China and 15.2% outside China. The difference is likely to be explained by the Chinese doing more testing so its a more representative sample.
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lani ... 73-3099(20)30195-X/fulltext
This study of patients tested on the Diamond Princess cruise ship (where people were tested regardless of whether they showed symptoms) found 17.9% of those testing positive to be asymptomatic (ie they did not develop symptoms or at least hadn't at the time of the study).
https://www.eurosurveillance.org/conten ... 10.2000180
So if you assume 18% of people who contract covid are asymptomatic, 82% have symptoms and amongst those with symptoms the mortality rate is 5%, then the overall mortality rate for everyone who contracts it would be 4.1%.
In practice it will be lower than that, because the unknown parameter is how many people in the regions in China where this test took place were symptomatic but didn't get tested. China was pretty rigorous at testing people with symptoms so this might not be a big proportion, but the bigger that proportion was, the more the overall mortality rate falls below 4.1%. | |
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Listening to & reading about the symptoms of coronavirus ,i think the wife & myself may already have had it. It started the week before Christmas & lasted till well into February ,head,chest ,stiff & painful joints & muscles. We came through ok even with underlying health issues ,although i'm still full of catarrh.
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