FORUMS > Warrington Wolves > Coronavirus |
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| Quote: Winslade's Offload "I think the government are paying statuary sick pay from day 1. And for 80% of people that get the virus a week is probably the length of time they will be out. If the government succeeds in flattening the infection curve as well........'"
What's the average salary nowadays?.. £20k??
SSP is £96??... put that over a possible lockdown period of 6-7 weeks and it's inevitable households will collapse. Combine that with the inevitable that is they won't have jobs to return to because their employers will have gone under and you can see why the idea of people accepting a long term lockdown is a long shot?
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| Quote: Dita's Slot Meter "What's the average salary nowadays?.. £20k??
SSP is £96??... put that over a possible lockdown period of 6-7 weeks and it's inevitable households will collapse. Combine that with the inevitable that is they won't have jobs to return to because their employers will have gone under and you can see why the idea of people accepting a long term lockdown is a long shot?'" you said earlier.
Perhaps I misunderstood what you said earlier. I'm saying that for 80% of the workers they will get a 'mild' infection, self isolate for a week, then return to work. I think the only 'lock downs' they are talking about are for the over 70's, and possibly restaurants, coffee shops and pubs.
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| Quote: sally cinnamon "People might want to go back to work, but in many sectors the demand won't be there and so there won't be jobs for them. Like after the financial crisis. If you're worried about your own income (never mind catching a virus) you cut down on stuff that aren't necessities.
One thing that will be exposed is the weakness of the social safety net now especially as Universal Credit is such a shambles. Over most of the past decade we have had very high employment levels, so Osborne was able to slash and slash at the safety net and enjoy political popularity for it, because it was seen as just hitting "dossers on the dole" who don't want to work.
When people lose their jobs and fall in to hardship through no fault of their own, eg through something like this virus, they fall back on the state and suddenly it shines a light on how much it has been chopped away.
Crises like this are exactly why you need a functioning government and a safety net, which is what the war generation understood when they rebuilt Britain in the 40s/50s. Unfortunately over the past few decades its been chopped away in favour of an attitude of "me first" capitalism, to justify slashing social protections back.'"
The UK government in 2017 spent £217 Billion on welfare + pensioners. 28% of total public spending. Guess the facts don't fit the narrative.
Welfare spending alone has soared.
The Labour government of 1997 onwards made living on benefits a lifestyle choice.
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| Quote: sally cinnamon "
Crises like this are exactly why you need a functioning government and a safety net'"
Or savings for a rainy day, living within your means and only having children you can afford to raise yourself.
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This country is going bloody soft. It's not even the worst viral outbreak in recent memory yet. As of today there is ONE confirmed case in Warrington. People need to get a bloody grip.
The seasonal flu epidemic in 1989 to 1990 caused 26,000 deaths in England and Wales alone.
Spanish Flu 1918 to 1919 - 200,000 UK deaths (young adults, children and elderly)
Asian Flu 1957 to 1958 33,000 UK deaths (children)
Hong Kong Flu 1968 to 1969 80,000 UK deaths (all ages)
Swine Flu 2009 to 2010 - 457 UK deaths
MERS 2012 0 UK deaths deaths
Serious Acute Respiratory Syndrome 2002 to 2003 - 0 UK deaths
Seasonal flu epidemic 1989 to 1990 - 26,000 deaths in England and Wales
Government Statistics https://www.gov.uk/government/publicati ... oss-the-uk
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This country is going bloody soft. It's not even the worst viral outbreak in recent memory yet. As of today there is ONE confirmed case in Warrington. People need to get a bloody grip.
The seasonal flu epidemic in 1989 to 1990 caused 26,000 deaths in England and Wales alone.
Spanish Flu 1918 to 1919 - 200,000 UK deaths (young adults, children and elderly)
Asian Flu 1957 to 1958 33,000 UK deaths (children)
Hong Kong Flu 1968 to 1969 80,000 UK deaths (all ages)
Swine Flu 2009 to 2010 - 457 UK deaths
MERS 2012 0 UK deaths deaths
Serious Acute Respiratory Syndrome 2002 to 2003 - 0 UK deaths
Seasonal flu epidemic 1989 to 1990 - 26,000 deaths in England and Wales
Government Statistics https://www.gov.uk/government/publicati ... oss-the-uk
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| Quote: Wires71 "This country is going bloody soft. It's not even the worst viral outbreak in recent memory yet. As of today there is ONE confirmed case in Warrington. People need to get a bloody grip.
The seasonal flu epidemic in 1989 to 1990 caused 26,000 deaths in England and Wales alone.
Spanish Flu 1918 to 1919 - 200,000 UK deaths (young adults, children and elderly)
Asian Flu 1957 to 1958 33,000 UK deaths (children)
Hong Kong Flu 1968 to 1969 80,000 UK deaths (all ages)
Swine Flu 2009 to 2010 - 457 UK deaths
MERS 2012 0 UK deaths deaths
Serious Acute Respiratory Syndrome 2002 to 2003 - 0 UK deaths
Seasonal flu epidemic 1989 to 1990 - 26,000 deaths in England and Wales
Government Statistics
Some pretty scary figures there, Wires71.
Imagine if we had 24 hour news, in THOSE times .
Our current media were putting the fear of God into us, with ZERO UK deaths.
Our printed/radio/tv/Internet media should cut down on the hyperbole, and broadcast facts/government advice and good practices, rather than click bait and scaremongry. We are entering worrying times, and we need FACT, not being told that the shelves are empty of toilet roll, pasta and baked beans.
Responsible behaviour is essential from the public, AND the media
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| Quote: lefty goldblatt "Some pretty scary figures there, Wires71.
Imagine if we had 24 hour news, in THOSE times .
Our current media were putting the fear of God into us, with ZERO UK deaths.
Our printed/radio/tv/Internet media should cut down on the hyperbole, and broadcast facts/government advice and good practices, rather than click bait and scaremongry. We are entering worrying times, and we need FACT, not being told that the shelves are empty of toilet roll, pasta and baked beans.
Responsible behaviour is essential from the public, AND the media'"
Completely agree. Mass hysteria stoked up by the media and perpetuated by the worried well on social media.
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| Quote: lefty goldblatt "Some pretty scary figures there, Wires71.
Imagine if we had 24 hour news, in THOSE times .
Our current media were putting the fear of God into us, with ZERO UK deaths.
Our printed/radio/tv/Internet media should cut down on the hyperbole, and broadcast facts/government advice and good practices, rather than click bait and scaremongry. We are entering worrying times, and we need FACT, not being told that the shelves are empty of toilet roll, pasta and baked beans.
The government provided both facts and advice on the virus on Thursday 12 March. It was on BBC1, Boris Johnson, Chris Whitty (UK's CMO) and Sir Patrick Vallance, (Chief Scientific Adviser) fronted it and took a Q & A session. It is still available on BBC i player 'BBC News Special' and the first item on most news broadcasts that day I think.
There is some interesting information in there, so if you flick forward to 70 min you will hear Whitty responding to a question about Germany (Merkel) stating they expect 60-70% of the population will get the virus. He said our worst case scenario was 80%. He didn't disagree with the likely range. A quick calculation; 65% * 64M = 42Million.
From WHO figures, around 20% of those infected will be in the severe to critical category and require hospitalisation; 8-9 Million.
A little later Patrick Vallance stated that the mortality rate was 1%, but refused to go any further with the calculation.
Those are humbling numbers. If they are correct and the government can not contain the epidemic, protect the at risk groups and get the resources in hospitals, we are going to have the same problem as Italy.
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| Yeah but those 400,000 dead will just be the 'spineless' so don't worry.
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| I thoroughly take your point, Winslade's, but again,THESE AREN'T FACTS, it's best guessing. Theres nothing to say this may peak in a week or so's time, after people have (hopefully) heeded warnings and used good practice. We don't need Whitehall civil servants grasping figures from mid air. To counter this I heard an eminent virologist saying he wouldn't hesitate to LET his young daughter go on a school skiing trip, this week
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After all (on a totally different theme) , Mark Carney, head of the Bank of England warned the public of the dangers of voting for Brexit in 2016. When we voted to leave, ALL his immediate forecasts for the UK economy's growth were proved wrong, with subsequent independent figures. "Experts" are only experts in name.
I hope to God that this virus disappears asap, but politicians issuing "best guess" figures, only feeds the flames Don't forget (again, on another theme) for every scientific"expert" on climate change, there'll be another "expert" telling you the exact opposite . David Attenborough to David Bellamy, anyone?.
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| Quote: lefty goldblatt "I thoroughly take your point, Winslade's, but again,THESE AREN'T FACTS, it's best guessing. Theres nothing to say this may peak in a week or so's time, after people have (hopefully) heeded warnings and used good practice. We don't need Whitehall civil servants grasping figures from mid air. To counter this I heard an eminent virologist saying he wouldn't hesitate to LET his young daughter go on a school skiing trip, this week
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I have to admit that was my way of thinking at first ' if we can stamp it out it will go away'. Unfortunately I was wrong and one of Patrick Vallance's earlier statements was " It's not possible to stop everyone getting it, and it's not advisable because you want immunity from it". Remember atm we have no vaccine for this thing so we will have to rely on our own bodies to immunise us.
As for their data, they have a lot of information from epidemics that have swept around the globe and they use this to develop models - computer programs that show them what will happen eg if the virus has a low or high transmission rate etc. These models are used by WHO and most developed countries around the world to predict probable (they are not perfect) outcomes. The data is also used to calculate for a given disease how many people need to be immunised to prevent a disease from spreading ( Herd Immunity ). So all this stuff is well tried and tested.
One last point which I forgot to say was that Whitty said we were probably 10-14 weeks away from the peak infection point. He showed a nice graph with a big peak on it, then pointed to the flat bit just before the peak started to rise and said "we are here".
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| i think the season will just get cancelled.... we may have a challenge cup... but league wise, if we lose 3-4 months from the season, its done.
Which probably suits everyone.... as everyone looks bang average.
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| The Nostrodamos disciples have missed an opportunity here. Haven’t heard from them for a while. It’s like a Doh moment.
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| Quote: sally cinnamon "Public Health England now say 7.9 million people may require hospitalisation due to coronavirus. Deaths between 318,660 and 531,100.
How does this tally with China who appear to have passed the peak with nowhere near that number of deaths? Suggesting 80% of the population will contract the virus.
The article makes clear this is a worst case scenario.
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