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| Quote Superblue="Superblue"Cutting through all the various modelling estimates, there are only two factual numbers, in that 55 deaths in 1500 tested positive.
What is not clear is the demographic age breakdown of those two numbers.
From news reports it appears the 55 souls are predominantly elderly or with some underlying health issue,
So 40 of those could be from 400 elderly/infirm tested positive, or from 1000 elderly/infirm tested positive.
10% or 4%
If it is 10% then final numbers will be determined how far this virus transmits around the elderly or infirm population.'"
Reading this in Phil Clarke’s “number crunching” voice |
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| Club Owner | 16281 | Warrington Wolves |
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| Quote Superblue="Superblue"No, I would start from those factual numbers and calculate the factual death to tested positives weekly ratio every Sunday night for each age / lnfirmity range , and then produce an ongoing set of week to week trends graphs.
All tested positive and all deaths/ belated deaths would become included at some point, and a rolling average figure calculated per age group.
You could see where the big numbers are happening, and pick up any spikes.'"
But any changes to the scope of who gets tested will distort those ratios over time. The best rule of thumb is to track how the raw number of deaths is trending over time. Assume the mortality rate stays fairly constant, the deaths per day will give you an indication of the underlying caseload, although bear in mind when the NHS reaches capacity point the mortality rate will probably shift to a higher level and then stay there.
In the next few weeks the daily death count will likely rise rapidly; the point at which we know we are gaining some control is where that levels off and starts to fall. That will show us that the underlying case load started to fall a couple of weeks earlier. |
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The government strategy has now changed after they received a report ( modelling) from Imperial which basically pointed out that on the current infection rate the NHS would need 'many times' the number of intensive care beds that they currently had in place leading to 'excess mortality' as experienced in Italy. Is this the first detailed piece of work to try and estimate the NHS capacity ?
Anyway, rather than now trying to flatten the infection curve they will try and drastically reduce the numbers that are getting infected (Suppression). Hence all the much stricter social distancing announced yesterday ( pubs, restaurants, theatres etc). So now we will see a smaller peak of infections followed by a drop ( to allow the NHS to recover their available bed numbers), followed by another increase in infections as they relax the social distancing. I don't know how many bumps they anticipate we will go through.
The upside is that they should save a lot more lives but the downside is it will obviously take a lot longer to get through the outbreak. That will certainly hit our businesses and economy. In order to soften this blow the government announced today a lot more money in the form of grants and loans (100's of £billions).
https://www.wired.co.uk/article/coronav ... n-response |
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The government strategy has now changed after they received a report ( modelling) from Imperial which basically pointed out that on the current infection rate the NHS would need 'many times' the number of intensive care beds that they currently had in place leading to 'excess mortality' as experienced in Italy. Is this the first detailed piece of work to try and estimate the NHS capacity ?
Anyway, rather than now trying to flatten the infection curve they will try and drastically reduce the numbers that are getting infected (Suppression). Hence all the much stricter social distancing announced yesterday ( pubs, restaurants, theatres etc). So now we will see a smaller peak of infections followed by a drop ( to allow the NHS to recover their available bed numbers), followed by another increase in infections as they relax the social distancing. I don't know how many bumps they anticipate we will go through.
The upside is that they should save a lot more lives but the downside is it will obviously take a lot longer to get through the outbreak. That will certainly hit our businesses and economy. In order to soften this blow the government announced today a lot more money in the form of grants and loans (100's of £billions).
https://www.wired.co.uk/article/coronav ... n-response | |
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I bet Israel Folau is unbearable, now
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| Quote sir adrian morley="sir adrian morley"Just been listening to the bafoon who wants to close pubs clubs restaurants etc to curb the spread of the virus...but I've got to go to work where I'm in contact with 150 plus other mugs...hypocrite springs to mind...stroll on Friday 4 pm I'm off to local thru back door for a well earned beer...suck on that doris'"
Enjoy your pint matey. You'll be fine ... what difference can one individual make. You probably won't feel a bit guilty or even know if you pass it on to some unlucky person.
Look after yourself you deserve it. |
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| Quote Smiffy27="Smiffy27"Enjoy your pint matey. You'll be fine ... what difference can one individual make. You probably won't feel a bit guilty or even know if you pass it on to some unlucky person.
Look after yourself you deserve it.'"
Cheers will do and I have |
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My parents are both in their mid 70’s and in reasonable health + they’ve stated they will not be looking at four walls for three months despite their sons advice + who am I to tell them what do as bit late for that now.
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| Quote runningman29="runningman29"My parents are both in their mid 70’s and in reasonable health + they’ve stated they will not be looking at four walls for three months despite their sons advice + who am I to tell them what do as bit late for that now.'"
Good for them...some of the young who think they know better know sod all..wish I knew em I'd buy them several drinks...sense talking at last |
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| Quote ninearches="ninearches"Listening to & reading about the symptoms of coronavirus ,i think the wife & myself may already have had it. It started the week before Christmas & lasted till well into February ,head,chest ,stiff & painful joints & muscles. We came through ok even with underlying health issues ,although i'm still full of catarrh.'"
There are a lot saying that. There was a bad cold/flu/chest infection type virus about at Christmas, I remember everyone at work moaning about it. I was really annoyed by it because I knew I'd catch it for the Christmas break and I was moaning at them all for continuing to come into work, only to sit with their hand in their hands moaning about how ill they were and do no work anyway.
There are tons of other viruses and illnesses that could cause those symptoms though. It's possible you just had regular flu. But it is possible as they traced the first case back to 17th November. It is possible it spread earlier than expected. |
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| Quote sir adrian morley="sir adrian morley"Cheers will do and I have'"
SAM
The government now know how many critical care beds it has available.
From the number of people that are infected each day it is relatively easy to predict how many people will be infected in say 6 weeks time.
From the numbers infected you also know how many will need to be hospitalised (and need ventilators).
At the moment the infection rate is too high and will result in more people needing hospitalisation than there are beds available. So the only solution is to slow the infection rate down by reducing social mixing ie visits to cinema, restaurants, pubs, closing schools etc. If that doesn't work you can guess their next step will be to enforce a complete lock down.
What they are trying to avoid is a situation where two urgent cases are admitted to hospital but they only have one bed left. One is say an 80 year old man, the other is a 70 year old lady. So they decide to leave the older man on a trolley and make him comfortable, whilst the younger lady is given oxygen and the ventilator.
We all need to think very carefully about what we do over the coming weeks and limit the opportunity for the virus to spread rapidly. |
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