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| Quote sally cinnamon="sally cinnamon"28,000 was across the whole season. 35 was the number of deaths from coronavirus yesterday.
There will be way, way more than 28,000 deaths from coronavirus before it is over and people will not be able to comprehend why they spent the early stages trying to close their minds to all the evidence and pretend that this was just like seasonal flu.'"
Sal what are talking... 35 deaths is the total so far... Not just yesterday... (Just seen the count is now 53)
Yes lots of people will show flu like symptoms but it's not as deadly as sars or mers it's the fact it appears much more easily transmitted From person to person is why people should be concerned.
But if your in good health you will be fine... FINE.... MIKEL ARTETA CALLUM HUDSON ODIO, THE LAD AT MACLAREN F1..... FINE
As with every year if you have underlying health conditions it's going to be serious....
I am genuinely struggling to comprehend why we didn't do this panicking when thousands of flu victims were dying..
AND THE SCHOOLS STILL STAY OPEN... | | |
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| Quote Wires71="Wires71"Can't fault the logic. Of course the actual number of cases will be much higher than reported because people with symptoms will stay at home and unless they seek a test will not be tested. Some will have even had the virus already and not known (asymptomatic). As a consequence the mortality rate is hugely over calculated. Luckily the R0 is relatively low.'"
The R0 figure and that for the mortality (1%) are already known. Testing will continue in hospitals so they will presumably have an accurate figure (No deaths * 100) for those infected. But they also have other methods for calculating infections if you think about it. There is no test for seasonal flu, and deaths are not recorded due to flu, so where did the data on flu deaths come from ? The answer is they looked at additional mortality over the period and made an estimate.
But finally, think about what you are saying; You disagree with the health experts and believe the mortality figures are hugely overestimated. Do you think it likely that they have made a mistake, or you ? | | | |
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1,5000 deaths max is what I predict in the UK.Some of the numbers mentioned on here are bonkers.It will be over before you can say Pet Shop Boys who ironically I had tickets to watch but not surprisingly will probably be cancelled in May.
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Quote Winslade's Offload="Winslade's Offload"The R0 figure and that for the mortality (1%) are already known. Testing will continue in hospitals so they will presumably have an accurate figure (No deaths * 100) for those infected. But they also have other methods for calculating infections if you think about it. There is no test for seasonal flu, and deaths are not recorded due to flu, so where did the data on flu deaths come from ? The answer is they looked at additional mortality over the period and made an estimate.
But finally, think about what you are saying; You disagree with the health experts and believe the mortality figures are hugely overestimated. Do you think it likely that they have made a mistake, or you ?'"
I'm happy to be wrong... but the death rate currently is calculated by deaths / tested cases known.
As of today (Source: https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboar ... 484dd4bb14)
UK Cases Known - 1543
Deaths - 55
Mortality Rate = 55/1543 = 3.5%.
But it is thought that there are up to 10,000 people infected (Source:https://www.independent.co.uk/news/health/coronavirus-news-uk-updates-symptoms-cases-map-deaths-world-travel-latest-a9403726.html)
UK Estimate infections - 10,000
UK Deaths - 55
UK Mortality Rate = 55/10000 = 0.55%.
What is the mortality rate of the new coronavirus?
It is probably about or a bit less than 1%. Much higher figures have been flying about, but the chief medical officer, Chris Whitty, is one of those who believes it will prove to be 1% or lower. The World Health Organization’s director general, Dr Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, talked of 3.4%, but his figure was calculated by dividing the number of deaths by the number of officially confirmed cases. We know there are many more mild cases that do not get to hospital and are not being counted, which would bring the mortality rate significantly down. Source: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/ ... s-covid-19
So we have ...
1. (Global) Asymptomatic people who don't get tested, survive and never get counted.
2. (UK) Small sample size.
3. You cannot use additional mortality over the period to estimate corona deaths yet.
In the early days of the crisis in Wuhan, China, the CFR was more than 4 percent. As the virus spread to other parts of Hubei, the number fell to 2 percent. As it spread through China, the reported CFR dropped further, to 0.2 to 0.4 percent. As testing begins to include more asymptomatic and mild cases, more realistic numbers are starting to surface. New reports from the World Health Organization that estimate the global death rate of COVID-19 to be 3.4 percent, higher than previously believed, is not cause for further panic. This number is subject to the same usual forces that we would normally expect to inaccurately embellish death rate statistics early in an epidemic. . Source:https://slate.com/technology/2020/03/coronavirus-mortality-rate-lower-than-we-think.html
That's why I believe it will be less than the figure of 3.4% given by the WHO which already is considered by the UK CMO Chris Whitty as hugely over calculated by a factor of over 3x. That is to what I was referring, so yes I do disagree with the WHO expert and so does the UK SMO, so let's hope that's right. |
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Quote Winslade's Offload="Winslade's Offload"The R0 figure and that for the mortality (1%) are already known. Testing will continue in hospitals so they will presumably have an accurate figure (No deaths * 100) for those infected. But they also have other methods for calculating infections if you think about it. There is no test for seasonal flu, and deaths are not recorded due to flu, so where did the data on flu deaths come from ? The answer is they looked at additional mortality over the period and made an estimate.
But finally, think about what you are saying; You disagree with the health experts and believe the mortality figures are hugely overestimated. Do you think it likely that they have made a mistake, or you ?'"
I'm happy to be wrong... but the death rate currently is calculated by deaths / tested cases known.
As of today (Source: https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboar ... 484dd4bb14)
UK Cases Known - 1543
Deaths - 55
Mortality Rate = 55/1543 = 3.5%.
But it is thought that there are up to 10,000 people infected (Source:https://www.independent.co.uk/news/health/coronavirus-news-uk-updates-symptoms-cases-map-deaths-world-travel-latest-a9403726.html)
UK Estimate infections - 10,000
UK Deaths - 55
UK Mortality Rate = 55/10000 = 0.55%.
What is the mortality rate of the new coronavirus?
It is probably about or a bit less than 1%. Much higher figures have been flying about, but the chief medical officer, Chris Whitty, is one of those who believes it will prove to be 1% or lower. The World Health Organization’s director general, Dr Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, talked of 3.4%, but his figure was calculated by dividing the number of deaths by the number of officially confirmed cases. We know there are many more mild cases that do not get to hospital and are not being counted, which would bring the mortality rate significantly down. Source: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/ ... s-covid-19
So we have ...
1. (Global) Asymptomatic people who don't get tested, survive and never get counted.
2. (UK) Small sample size.
3. You cannot use additional mortality over the period to estimate corona deaths yet.
In the early days of the crisis in Wuhan, China, the CFR was more than 4 percent. As the virus spread to other parts of Hubei, the number fell to 2 percent. As it spread through China, the reported CFR dropped further, to 0.2 to 0.4 percent. As testing begins to include more asymptomatic and mild cases, more realistic numbers are starting to surface. New reports from the World Health Organization that estimate the global death rate of COVID-19 to be 3.4 percent, higher than previously believed, is not cause for further panic. This number is subject to the same usual forces that we would normally expect to inaccurately embellish death rate statistics early in an epidemic. . Source:https://slate.com/technology/2020/03/coronavirus-mortality-rate-lower-than-we-think.html
That's why I believe it will be less than the figure of 3.4% given by the WHO which already is considered by the UK CMO Chris Whitty as hugely over calculated by a factor of over 3x. That is to what I was referring, so yes I do disagree with the WHO expert and so does the UK SMO, so let's hope that's right. | |
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| Quote the flying biscuit="the flying biscuit"Sal what poop are talking... 35 deaths is the total so far... Not just yesterday... (Just seen the count is now 53)'"
Correct - it was 14 yesterday so the total was 35 at that point; 20 today so the latest count is 55. The point is we are still in the early stages and the rate of growth is fast, so the numbers will rapidly rise and be well more than 28,000 before the pandemic is over. | | | |
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| Quote runningman29="runningman29":1a0gi6jiIt will be over before you can say Pet Shop Boys who ironically I had tickets to watch but not surprisingly will probably be cancelled in May.'" done to deserve this? | | |
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Quote sally cinnamon="sally cinnamon"Correct - it was 14 yesterday so the total was 35 at that point; 20 today so the latest count is 55. The point is we are still in the early stages and the rate of growth is fast, so the numbers will rapidly rise and be well more than 28,000 before the pandemic is over.'"
Yet paradoxically today's UK new cases was well down on the last four days. (I am not saying that will continue just an observation)
https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboar ... 484dd4bb14 |
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Quote sally cinnamon="sally cinnamon"Correct - it was 14 yesterday so the total was 35 at that point; 20 today so the latest count is 55. The point is we are still in the early stages and the rate of growth is fast, so the numbers will rapidly rise and be well more than 28,000 before the pandemic is over.'"
Yet paradoxically today's UK new cases was well down on the last four days. (I am not saying that will continue just an observation)
https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboar ... 484dd4bb14 | |
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They've stopped testing though, haven't they, so the new cases number will slow down, while the death numbers will rise more dramatically?
What's interesting now is how the population will react to Boris's request to voluntarily go into lockdown. I'm not convinced people will be too keen to inflict economic hardship on themselves in order to protect the health of people they don't know.
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They've stopped testing though, haven't they, so the new cases number will slow down, while the death numbers will rise more dramatically?
What's interesting now is how the population will react to Boris's request to voluntarily go into lockdown. I'm not convinced people will be too keen to inflict economic hardship on themselves in order to protect the health of people they don't know.
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Quote Wires71="Wires71"I'm happy to be wrong... but the death rate currently is calculated by deaths / tested cases known.
As of today (Source: https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboar ... 484dd4bb14)
UK Cases Known - 1543
Deaths - 55
Mortality Rate = 55/1543 = 3.5%.
But it is thought that there are up to 10,000 people infected (Source:https://www.independent.co.uk/news/health/coronavirus-news-uk-updates-symptoms-cases-map-deaths-world-travel-latest-a9403726.html)
UK Estimate infections - 10,000
UK Deaths - 55
UK Mortality Rate = 55/10000 = 0.55%.
What is the mortality rate of the new coronavirus?
It is probably about or a bit less than 1%. Much higher figures have been flying about, but the chief medical officer, Chris Whitty, is one of those who believes it will prove to be 1% or lower. The World Health Organization’s director general, Dr Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, talked of 3.4%, but his figure was calculated by dividing the number of deaths by the number of officially confirmed cases. We know there are many more mild cases that do not get to hospital and are not being counted, which would bring the mortality rate significantly down. Source: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/ ... s-covid-19
So we have ...
1. (Global) Asymptomatic people who don't get tested, survive and never get counted.
2. (UK) Small sample size.
3. You cannot use additional mortality over the period to estimate corona deaths yet.
In the early days of the crisis in Wuhan, China, the CFR was more than 4 percent. As the virus spread to other parts of Hubei, the number fell to 2 percent. As it spread through China, the reported CFR dropped further, to 0.2 to 0.4 percent. As testing begins to include more asymptomatic and mild cases, more realistic numbers are starting to surface. New reports from the World Health Organization that estimate the global death rate of COVID-19 to be 3.4 percent, higher than previously believed, is not cause for further panic. This number is subject to the same usual forces that we would normally expect to inaccurately embellish death rate statistics early in an epidemic. . Source:https://slate.com/technology/2020/03/coronavirus-mortality-rate-lower-than-we-think.html
That's why I believe it will be less than the figure of 3.4% given by the WHO which already is considered by the UK CMO Chris Whitty as hugely over calculated by a factor of over 3x. That is to what I was referring, so yes I do disagree with the WHO expert and so does the UK SMO, so let's hope that's right.'"
The true mortality rate is unknown and the estimates will bounce around at this early stage but as more data comes in, we will have a more accurate picture.
To estimate it properly you need to factor in the time delay between testing positive and dying (grim topic I know), because many new cases test positive between the time someone tests positive and dies. You should divide the number of people who die on a particular day with the number of cases at the point they were likely to be infected. This study which came out a few days ago uses a 14-day delay and estimates a mortality rate of 5.6% in China and 15.2% outside China. The difference is likely to be explained by the Chinese doing more testing so its a more representative sample.
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lani ... 73-3099(20)30195-X/fulltext
This study of patients tested on the Diamond Princess cruise ship (where people were tested regardless of whether they showed symptoms) found 17.9% of those testing positive to be asymptomatic (ie they did not develop symptoms or at least hadn't at the time of the study).
https://www.eurosurveillance.org/conten ... 10.2000180
So if you assume 18% of people who contract covid are asymptomatic, 82% have symptoms and amongst those with symptoms the mortality rate is 5%, then the overall mortality rate for everyone who contracts it would be 4.1%.
In practice it will be lower than that, because the unknown parameter is how many people in the regions in China where this test took place were symptomatic but didn't get tested. China was pretty rigorous at testing people with symptoms so this might not be a big proportion, but the bigger that proportion was, the more the overall mortality rate falls below 4.1%. |
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Quote Wires71="Wires71"I'm happy to be wrong... but the death rate currently is calculated by deaths / tested cases known.
As of today (Source: https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboar ... 484dd4bb14)
UK Cases Known - 1543
Deaths - 55
Mortality Rate = 55/1543 = 3.5%.
But it is thought that there are up to 10,000 people infected (Source:https://www.independent.co.uk/news/health/coronavirus-news-uk-updates-symptoms-cases-map-deaths-world-travel-latest-a9403726.html)
UK Estimate infections - 10,000
UK Deaths - 55
UK Mortality Rate = 55/10000 = 0.55%.
What is the mortality rate of the new coronavirus?
It is probably about or a bit less than 1%. Much higher figures have been flying about, but the chief medical officer, Chris Whitty, is one of those who believes it will prove to be 1% or lower. The World Health Organization’s director general, Dr Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, talked of 3.4%, but his figure was calculated by dividing the number of deaths by the number of officially confirmed cases. We know there are many more mild cases that do not get to hospital and are not being counted, which would bring the mortality rate significantly down. Source: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/ ... s-covid-19
So we have ...
1. (Global) Asymptomatic people who don't get tested, survive and never get counted.
2. (UK) Small sample size.
3. You cannot use additional mortality over the period to estimate corona deaths yet.
In the early days of the crisis in Wuhan, China, the CFR was more than 4 percent. As the virus spread to other parts of Hubei, the number fell to 2 percent. As it spread through China, the reported CFR dropped further, to 0.2 to 0.4 percent. As testing begins to include more asymptomatic and mild cases, more realistic numbers are starting to surface. New reports from the World Health Organization that estimate the global death rate of COVID-19 to be 3.4 percent, higher than previously believed, is not cause for further panic. This number is subject to the same usual forces that we would normally expect to inaccurately embellish death rate statistics early in an epidemic. . Source:https://slate.com/technology/2020/03/coronavirus-mortality-rate-lower-than-we-think.html
That's why I believe it will be less than the figure of 3.4% given by the WHO which already is considered by the UK CMO Chris Whitty as hugely over calculated by a factor of over 3x. That is to what I was referring, so yes I do disagree with the WHO expert and so does the UK SMO, so let's hope that's right.'"
The true mortality rate is unknown and the estimates will bounce around at this early stage but as more data comes in, we will have a more accurate picture.
To estimate it properly you need to factor in the time delay between testing positive and dying (grim topic I know), because many new cases test positive between the time someone tests positive and dies. You should divide the number of people who die on a particular day with the number of cases at the point they were likely to be infected. This study which came out a few days ago uses a 14-day delay and estimates a mortality rate of 5.6% in China and 15.2% outside China. The difference is likely to be explained by the Chinese doing more testing so its a more representative sample.
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lani ... 73-3099(20)30195-X/fulltext
This study of patients tested on the Diamond Princess cruise ship (where people were tested regardless of whether they showed symptoms) found 17.9% of those testing positive to be asymptomatic (ie they did not develop symptoms or at least hadn't at the time of the study).
https://www.eurosurveillance.org/conten ... 10.2000180
So if you assume 18% of people who contract covid are asymptomatic, 82% have symptoms and amongst those with symptoms the mortality rate is 5%, then the overall mortality rate for everyone who contracts it would be 4.1%.
In practice it will be lower than that, because the unknown parameter is how many people in the regions in China where this test took place were symptomatic but didn't get tested. China was pretty rigorous at testing people with symptoms so this might not be a big proportion, but the bigger that proportion was, the more the overall mortality rate falls below 4.1%. | |
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Listening to & reading about the symptoms of coronavirus ,i think the wife & myself may already have had it. It started the week before Christmas & lasted till well into February ,head,chest ,stiff & painful joints & muscles. We came through ok even with underlying health issues ,although i'm still full of catarrh.
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| Quote Dita's Slot Meter="Dita's Slot Meter"They've stopped testing though, haven't they, so the new cases number will slow down, while the death numbers will rise more dramatically?
'"
Yes - in a country like the UK where there is very little testing, the official number of cases will massively understate the actual number who have it, but the death rate as a proportion of those who are tested will be high, because the sample of people who are tested is not representative of the population of people who contract the disease - it will be biased because it contains only the more severe cases who reach hospital treatment.
There will no doubt be some unscrupulous media source who runs a story that claims a super high mortality rate based on this.
Data on caseloads will be more accurate in countries like China/Korea where there is more extensive testing.
In the UK where so few people are tested, the best proxy to use for whether we are getting on top of the virus or not will be the number of deaths per day, but the death rate today is an indicator of the case load two weeks or so ago.
If for instance, the measures that the government announced today for additional social distancing are effective, the number of deaths per day may still rise rapidly over the next two weeks. This will be because the number of cases was rising rapidly in the two weeks before today, when we didn't have the measures in place, then if those are effective, it will start to level off in a couple of weeks and hopefully fall.
But again, people who don't understand the dynamics of the data, would see death rates rising in the next two weeks and say "social distancing is not making any impact".
The other factor that will start to drive deaths per day up rapidly (as found in Italy) is when the NHS gets to overcapacity, where people who could have survived with the right treatment start to die because of the lack of capacity. The reason measures like today are so important is to keep the NHS below that level. | | | |
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