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FORUMS > The Virtual Terrace > 2014 Prediction Thread |
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| Quote: salford sport "I agree with you there Leeds dave. But IMO this answer of yours is the problem with Superleague. The same teams will win it and be in the finals every year, With one other side having a good year. We have rules in place,(the cap) and (the overseas quoter) to stop certain sides dominating, but they still do.
The league also has rules in place I.E homegrown/academy products being exempt in some way from the cap. Now IMO this rule only benefit the BIG/Rich clubs, teams like cas and Wakey who both have great academys can't take full advantage of the homegrown rule because as soon as a player shows promise, bang a top 4/5 snap them up, so basically there just training up players for the big sides.
The salary cap on the other hand apparently stops smaller teams spending beyond there means, while stopping the big sides getting all the great players for them selves. So why are both these reasons for the cap not happening?
People keep having a go at our chairman about wanting to get rid of the cap, coming out with reasons like "the top sides will run away with it every year" which they do anyway, and "the bottom sides can't afford it" which they can't anyway.
Things won't change with this rule, nobody from outside the sport is going to take on teams like Salford, Wakey, cas, Koukash admits he was tricked into buying Salford. The league is a weak one at this momont in time and with union and the nrl to contend with the cap is only making the superleague weaker not more competitive or stronger.'"
Fact, 56% of the World Cup England squad was developed by 3 clubs: saints Wigan and Leeds. (This rises to 60% if you include those in the original 25 man squad.)
You are right, the top clubs will be the biggest benefactors of the home grown rule changes on the salary cap. But not because of poaching. But because the majority of top clubs top talent is home grown, meaning they will have more money to spend on the cap ever before.
My club, saints, for example, could have graham, roby, Amor as it's starting row in 2015, who are all (could be in amors case) internationals. Graham and roby alone is easily 400-600k of someone's cap, but instead will count as 200k leaving a lot more to strengthen even further.
As for losing players to the nrl, with youth development in place, you can lose tomkins, and simply replace him with Hampshire when he's ready, a strong enough development program can help you deal with it,
The top clubs won't be caught until clubs are forced to spend on youth development like saints Leeds and Wigan have chosen to do - the rule change isn't designed to make the gap closer, it's designed to try and encourage people to actually develop in the same way these clubs have, and by doing so then be able to compete.
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| I believe that Saints new scrum half will be capable of giving the team a distinct advantage over most with his field kicking. Having watched him in the NRL for the past three seasons i believe he is a match for most in this art within the NRL and if they play to his strengths and escape an injury list like last seasons I can see Saints doing very well indeed.
Mose Masoe will ad a lot to their pack and with these two players into what was already developing into a decent side towards the seasons end they will almost certainly be thereabouts and I favour them to take top position with a run of luck, something that all teams require in the long run.
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| 1. St Helens
2. Wigan
3. Huddersfield
4. Leeds
5. Warrington
6. Salford
7. Hull
8. Catalans
9. Hull KR
10. Widnes
11. Castleford
12. Bradford
13. Wakefield
14. London
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| Hull KR will finish 7th with a solid super league season only distracted by a successful challenge cup campaign.
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| Quote: salford sport "I agree with you there Leeds dave. But IMO this answer of yours is the problem with Superleague. The same teams will win it and be in the finals every year, With one other side having a good year. We have rules in place,(the cap) and (the overseas quoter) to stop certain sides dominating, but they still do.
The league also has rules in place I.E homegrown/academy products being exempt in some way from the cap. Now IMO this rule only benefit the BIG/Rich clubs, teams like cas and Wakey who both have great academys can't take full advantage of the homegrown rule because as soon as a player shows promise, bang a top 4/5 snap them up, so basically there just training up players for the big sides.
The salary cap on the other hand apparently stops smaller teams spending beyond there means, while stopping the big sides getting all the great players for them selves. So why are both these reasons for the cap not happening?
People keep having a go at our chairman about wanting to get rid of the cap, coming out with reasons like "the top sides will run away with it every year" which they do anyway, and "the bottom sides can't afford it" which they can't anyway.
Things won't change with this rule, nobody from outside the sport is going to take on teams like Salford, Wakey, cas, Koukash admits he was tricked into buying Salford. The league is a weak one at this momont in time and with union and the nrl to contend with the cap is only making the superleague weaker not more competitive or stronger.'"
But we've seen movement within that top group of clubs. Whether it's Leeds 10 years ago, or Warrington moving up, Bradford dropping down, now Huddersfield pushing the top clubs. I don't think its unreasonable to suggest that the GF will probably be won by one of 4/5 SL clubs next season. Either Leeds, Wigan, Saints, Warrington or possibly Huddersfield. Is 4/5 with a good chance of winning out of 14 clubs actually that bad? I'd say it's pretty good in pro sport. The Premier League will be won by 1 out of a max of 4 clubs (Man Utd, Man City, Arsenal, Chelsea), yet people don't complain at that league being uncompetitive.
You say the salary cap and the overseas quota don't stop teams dominating. Well for starters the overseas quota isn't in place for that reason, it's there to try and stop clubs reliance on overseas players. The salary cap most definitely does stop teams dominating. Hence 4 different teams topping the table in the last 5 seasons. The salary cap has 2 reasons for being. 1 is to spread talent around (which it does, otherwise the top clubs would stockpile players) the other is to try and encourage clubs to spend on areas other than the first team wages (which it also does with varying success depending on the club).
The Homegrown salary cap allowance benefits all teams equally whilst encouraging clubs to invest in youth production. It allows 1 Club Trained players' salary to be exempt from the cap up to a max of £50,000. If anything that benefits a club like Cas or Wakey since the player they produce has up to £50k exempt from the cap with them and not with any other club, making it harder for another club to sign that player.
If Koukash was "tricked" into buying Salford then he's even more stupid than his fake twitter account. People are all for reasonable discussion about the salary cap. Things like dispensations etc. but for Koukash to come in and start throwing his toys out of the pram is just daft and shows he (and those who think getting rid of the cap is a good idea) don't understand the reasons for (and effects of) the salary cap.
It's there to stop 1 team running away with it year on year - Done
It's there to try and encourage spending on other areas - Done (at least at some clubs)
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| 1) Warrington Wolves
2) Wigan Warriors
3) Huddersfield Giants
4) Leeds Rhinos
5) St Helens
6) Catalan Dragons
7) Hull FC
8 ) Hull KR
9) Salford Red Devils
10) Widnes Vikings
11) Bradford Bulls
12) Wakefield Wildcats
13) Castleford Tigers
14) London Broncos
SL - St Helens
CC - Warrington
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| Quote: Him "But we've seen movement within that top group of clubs. Whether it's Leeds 10 years ago, or Warrington moving up, Bradford dropping down, now Huddersfield pushing the top clubs. I don't think its unreasonable to suggest that the GF will probably be won by one of 4/5 SL clubs next season. Either Leeds, Wigan, Saints, Warrington or possibly Huddersfield. Is 4/5 with a good chance of winning out of 14 clubs actually that bad? I'd say it's pretty good in pro sport. The Premier League will be won by 1 out of a max of 4 clubs (Man Utd, Man City, Arsenal, Chelsea), yet people don't complain at that league being uncompetitive.
You say the salary cap and the overseas quota don't stop teams dominating. Well for starters the overseas quota isn't in place for that reason, it's there to try and stop clubs reliance on overseas players. The salary cap most definitely does stop teams dominating. Hence 4 different teams topping the table in the last 5 seasons. The salary cap has 2 reasons for being. 1 is to spread talent around (which it does, otherwise the top clubs would stockpile players) the other is to try and encourage clubs to spend on areas other than the first team wages (which it also does with varying success depending on the club).
The Homegrown salary cap allowance benefits all teams equally whilst encouraging clubs to invest in youth production. It allows 1 Club Trained players' salary to be exempt from the cap up to a max of £50,000. If anything that benefits a club like Cas or Wakey since the player they produce has up to £50k exempt from the cap with them and not with any other club, making it harder for another club to sign that player.
If Koukash was "tricked" into buying Salford then he's even more stupid than his fake twitter account. People are all for reasonable discussion about the salary cap. Things like dispensations etc. but for Koukash to come in and start throwing his toys out of the pram is just daft and shows he (and those who think getting rid of the cap is a good idea) don't understand the reasons for (and effects of) the salary cap.
It's there to stop 1 team running away with it year on year - Done
It's there to try and encourage spending on other areas - Done (at least at some clubs)'"
Yeah there has been different teams at the top of the league in recent seasons, but what does finishing top mean today? It means you get a shiny hub cap. Are you remembered as champions?? NO. Name the grand final winners of the last 6 years, then you'll truly see how the cap doesn't work. IMO the rules in place are there to keep the top at the top and the bottom at the bottom. Big sides with more money better facility's, bigger academys, are always going to entice the best young talent from the game. With relegation coming back that will take away the ethos of building a team from the ground up and pumping money into youngsters.
Small clubs are going to revert back to panic buying and anything they can to stay up, at the same time again making the top stronger and the gap wider! Only 4 sides have won Superleague in the last 18 years, compare that to the nrl and it shows how competitive the Aussie league is compared to ours.
As for Koukash, he said it himself on the radio he was tricked into buying Salford. He wasn't aware of any cap or restrictions. Why would new money like Koukash be willing to buy into a sport where he/she can't do what they want to do with there sides, not to mention our cap being half the NRL'S cap and even less when you bring union into it. Superleague quality has been going down and down each year recently, in his opinion the influx of a few world renowned players could give the game the lift that it needs.
As for stopping one side running away with it, how many times did Leeds win the league in the last 7 years? Also as I said earlier on in the thread, how can you expect a team fighting for its SL life to spend money in any other area than the first team? Its ok for the top 4/5 clubs there's not a chance they will go down.
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| Quote: Him "But we've seen movement within that top group of clubs. Whether it's Leeds 10 years ago, or Warrington moving up, Bradford dropping down, now Huddersfield pushing the top clubs. I don't think its unreasonable to suggest that the GF will probably be won by one of 4/5 SL clubs next season. Either Leeds, Wigan, Saints, Warrington or possibly Huddersfield. Is 4/5 with a good chance of winning out of 14 clubs actually that bad? I'd say it's pretty good in pro sport. The Premier League will be won by 1 out of a max of 4 clubs (Man Utd, Man City, Arsenal, Chelsea), yet people don't complain at that league being uncompetitive.
You say the salary cap and the overseas quota don't stop teams dominating. Well for starters the overseas quota isn't in place for that reason, it's there to try and stop clubs reliance on overseas players. The salary cap most definitely does stop teams dominating. Hence 4 different teams topping the table in the last 5 seasons. The salary cap has 2 reasons for being. 1 is to spread talent around (which it does, otherwise the top clubs would stockpile players) the other is to try and encourage clubs to spend on areas other than the first team wages (which it also does with varying success depending on the club).
The Homegrown salary cap allowance benefits all teams equally whilst encouraging clubs to invest in youth production. It allows 1 Club Trained players' salary to be exempt from the cap up to a max of £50,000. If anything that benefits a club like Cas or Wakey since the player they produce has up to £50k exempt from the cap with them and not with any other club, making it harder for another club to sign that player.
If Koukash was "tricked" into buying Salford then he's even more stupid than his fake twitter account. People are all for reasonable discussion about the salary cap. Things like dispensations etc. but for Koukash to come in and start throwing his toys out of the pram is just daft and shows he (and those who think getting rid of the cap is a good idea) don't understand the reasons for (and effects of) the salary cap.
It's there to stop 1 team running away with it year on year - Done
It's there to try and encourage spending on other areas - Done (at least at some clubs)'" Since the introduction of the salary cap we have had 4 teams win SL, in the two years immediately prior to the introduction of the salary cap we saw 4 different clubs contest the grand final. They were the same 4 clubs.
In the 14 seasons we have had the SC we have had 4 SL winners ,in the 14 seasons prior to the cap we had 4 different winners. In the 14 seasons we have had the SC 8 different sides appeared in the CC final, in the 14 years immediately prior to the SC 10 different sides played in the CC final.
The salary cap was sold on three basis, that it would stop teams dominating (it hasn’t) that it would stop teams stockpiling talent (the 25/25 does that) and that it would keep clubs solvent (it fails hugely and was always likely to)
This salary cap, in the form it has been and that it has now taken is an unmitigated failure, it is a blunt instrument trying to perform precision tasks. It is a disaster that damages our game and sees the best players excluded from our competition, it has made our competition second rate and second choice.
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| Quote: SmokeyTA "Since the introduction of the salary cap we have had 4 teams win SL, in the two years immediately prior to the introduction of the salary cap we saw 4 different clubs contest the grand final. They were the same 4 clubs.
In the 14 seasons we have had the SC we have had 4 SL winners ,in the 14 seasons prior to the cap we had 4 different winners. In the 14 seasons we have had the SC 8 different sides appeared in the CC final, in the 14 years immediately prior to the SC 10 different sides played in the CC final.
The salary cap was sold on three basis, that it would stop teams dominating (it hasn’t) that it would stop teams stockpiling talent (the 25/25 does that) and that it would keep clubs solvent (it fails hugely and was always likely to)
This salary cap, in the form it has been and that it has now taken is an unmitigated failure, it is a blunt instrument trying to perform precision tasks. It is a disaster that damages our game and sees the best players excluded from our competition, it has made our competition second rate and second choice.'"
You're missing the point, 4 teams dominating is 100x better than 1 team dominating, imagine, in the current media environment how second rate the sport would look if Wigan went on an 1980s run again? Any competition is better than no competition. Without the salary cap all that would happen is it would be a genital measuring contest for club chairmen, with the winner merely the one who lasts longest, the sport as a whole would be in a whole worse state. Imagine the entire game being in the state Bradford is in right now. That would be the result.
The reality is we have 5/6 teams capable of winning. It only takes 1 clubs to break the psychology of only 4 teams can win it, whether it be Warrington Huddersfield or anyone else, they are CAPABLE of winning it, and that's truer than in most sports.
The salary cap depends on owners recognising what's good for them, limiting player spending is great in theory, but means owners lie to be able to spend up to the maximum. Remove the owners ability to lie, rigidly stick to within what they are capable of, far less wakefields and Bradford's happen.
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| Quote: Magic Superbeetle "You're missing the point, 4 teams dominating is 100x better than 1 team dominating, imagine, in the current media environment how second rate the sport would look if Wigan went on an 1980s run again? Any competition is better than no competition. Without the salary cap all that would happen is it would be a genital measuring contest for club chairmen, with the winner merely the one who lasts longest, the sport as a whole would be in a whole worse state. Imagine the entire game being in the state Bradford is in right now. That would be the result.
The reality is we have 5/6 teams capable of winning. It only takes 1 clubs to break the psychology of only 4 teams can win it, whether it be Warrington Huddersfield or anyone else, they are CAPABLE of winning it, and that's truer than in most sports.
The salary cap depends on owners recognising what's good for them, limiting player spending is great in theory, but means owners lie to be able to spend up to the maximum. Remove the owners ability to lie, rigidly stick to within what they are capable of, far less wakefields and Bradford's happen.'"
In the 14 years of Salary cap we have had Leeds, Bradford, Saints and Wigan win the GF, in the 14 years prior to that we had Wigan, Saints, Bradford and Widnes and Halifax.
In the challenge cup under the SC we have had 5 different winnners, Wigan, Saints, Bradford, Warrington and Hull, prior to the SC we Had Wigan, Saints, Leeds, Sheffield, Halifax.
In the challenge cup under the SC we have had 5 different winnners, Wigan, Saints, Bradford, Warrington and Hull, prior to the SC we had 6 Wigan, Saints, Leeds, Sheffield, Halifax, Cas.
In terms of numbers, pre SC, Wigan won 8 challenge cups, Saints, 2, Leeds 1, Sheffield 1, Halifax 1 and Cas 1. Post SC Wigan won 3, Saints won 5, Wire 3, Bradford 2 and Hull 1.
Pre SC Wigan won 9 league titles, Saints 2, Widnes 2, Bradford 1. Post SC Saints 3, Wigan 2, Bradford 3, Leeds 6
In reality we aren’t anymore ‘competitive’ than we were pre-SC. We see its largely the same clubs winning things, and that those clubs are traditionally the biggest ones the salary cap hasn’t effected that. In fact it is has entrenched it, and the only 2 clubs who have joined those traditionally big ones are Warrington and Huddersfield, two clubs who have had massive investment from a sugar daddy.
The SC is a busted flush, a failure.
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| 1. Warrington
2. Leeds
3. Wigan
4. St Helens
5. Huddersfield
6. Catalans
7. Salford
8. Hull KR
9. Hull
10. Castleford
11. Wakefield
12. Widnes
13. Bradford
14. London
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| But Smokey, you're seeing it as a zero sum game. You're taking the years prior to the salary cap and the years after it's introduction as exactly the same with no other factors. You're totally ignoring the fact that when the salary cap was brought in the sport was, effectively, just entering the era of professionalism. You're ignoring what would/might have happened without a salary cap. Yes Leeds have won it a few times these last few years. But considering the huge gulf in finances between Leeds and the rest what do you think would have happened if there'd been no cap? It also doesn't show Leeds as dominating the league. If they had then Leeds would have finished top of the league in these seasons and also won the cup.
We can create as many stats as we want, for instance Wigan winning it 7 times in a row whilst also winning the cup in each of those years. We've never seen that under the salary cap. But either way, it's not about comparing it to the past, because the past isn't what we have now. It's about comparing a salary capped SL to what a SL with no salary cap would be like. Which, in my opinion, would be a league dominated by 2 clubs, Leeds & Wigan. And when I say dominated I mean those 2 clubs being the only contenders for any trophy. It will also lead to a much reduced focus on player development, academies, backroom staff, facilities & sport science in the rush for spending on first team players.
The league and the sport, in my opinion, would be in a far worse state.
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| Quote: Him "But Smokey, you're seeing it as a zero sum game. You're taking the years prior to the salary cap and the years after it's introduction as exactly the same with no other factors. You're totally ignoring the fact that when the salary cap was brought in the sport was, effectively, just entering the era of professionalism. You're ignoring what would/might have happened without a salary cap. Yes Leeds have won it a few times these last few years. But considering the huge gulf in finances between Leeds and the rest what do you think would have happened if there'd been no cap? It also doesn't show Leeds as dominating the league. If they had then Leeds would have finished top of the league in these seasons and also won the cup. '" You are picking and choosing your stats to fit your argument. You cant on one hand argue that im ignoring the implementation of full-time professionalism when comparing pre SC to post SC, then go on to use Wigans success as a defence of the current SC.
If anything my ignoring the advent of professionalism worked in your favour, the fact we went from one maybe two pro clubs playing against Semi-pro ones, to 14 full-time pro clubs, and still haven’t seen a huge jump in competitiveness only strengthens the argument that the SC hasn’t worked.
Quote: Him "We can create as many stats as we want, for instance Wigan winning it 7 times in a row whilst also winning the cup in each of those years. We've never seen that under the salary cap. But either way, it's not about comparing it to the past, because the past isn't what we have now. It's about comparing a salary capped SL to what a SL with no salary cap would be like. Which, in my opinion, would be a league dominated by 2 clubs, Leeds & Wigan. And when I say dominated I mean those 2 clubs being the only contenders for any trophy. It will also lead to a much reduced focus on player development, academies, backroom staff, facilities & sport science in the rush for spending on first team players.
The league and the sport, in my opinion, would be in a far worse state.'" Im sorry but this argument really holds no water, it is the invisible pink unicorn defence.
The SC needs justify its existence by its effect, the SC has not had the effect it was sold on, it hasn’t made the league more competitive, it hasn’t stopped clubs going bust and it hasn’t stopped clubs stockpiling talent (something else does that), The SC has failed to do what it was supposed to, it is a failure.
The fact that something else, could possibly be worse, even though it didn’t prove much worse when we did have it, and we also have a multitude of other options is not a strong argument.
What we can say for definite about the SC is that it has caused huge depression in player wages, and that we have seen more players go to Union and the NRL and less quality come back the other way.
You are also drawing something of a false dichotomy, in that we have a huge amount more options than the SC as we have it and completely unfettered spending on wages.
It should also be noted that the ‘golden generation’ of Leeds players were in and around the Rhinos prior to the SC’s implementation.
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| Quote: Alex Mc "Hull KR will finish 7th with a solid super league season only distracted by a successful challenge cup campaign.'"
Please please please!!!
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| Quote: SmokeyTA "You are picking and choosing your stats to fit your argument. You cant on one hand argue that im ignoring the implementation of full-time professionalism when comparing pre SC to post SC, then go on to use Wigans success as a defence of the current SC. '"
Which is exactly what I said
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