FORUMS > The Virtual Terrace > Phil Clarkes Margin Meter |
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| Quote: McClennan "I'd hate for some of you to have been around when we invented fire...'"
Hardly the same.
For me, even if the margin meter became a perfect science over the course of a season, it's ultimate purpose seems to be to spoil the game as a spectacle; given that the TV audience is contingent on the game being exciting, competitive and unpredictable, then that doesn't seem very sensible.
They could do some interesting things with stat's and modelling - this however, is what my son would call an 'epic fail.'
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| Quote: bren2k "Hardly the same.
For me, even if the margin meter became a perfect science over the course of a season, it's ultimate purpose seems to be to spoil the game as a spectacle; given that the TV audience is contingent on the game being exciting, competitive and unpredictable, then that doesn't seem very sensible.
They could do some interesting things with stat's and modelling - this however, is what my son would call an 'epic fail.''"
Give your son a pat on the head - he's absolutely spot on.
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| What is being being said is that there is an algorithm to predict the result of a game ?
What complete and utter tosh if so Betfred should be sweating ( other bookies are available )
Onto what Bren2k says "They could do some interesting things with stat's and modelling", the NFL is a good example of this and has some very good data on all players ie
Metres gained per drive on average
Total metres gained by player this game / this season
Tackles made on ave per game etc etc etc
this would bring more to the game than the cheap gadget they have chosen
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| It's ludicrous, no machine can predict an intercept, bounce of a rugby ball, knock ons etc. An interesting idea, but due to the nature of sport it will never work.
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| Quote: TrinityIHC "It's ludicrous, no machine can predict an intercept, bounce of a rugby ball, knock ons etc. An interesting idea, but due to the nature of sport it will never work.'"
Agreed, but it appears to be another reason to have Clarke waffling on.
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| Quote: binks "What is being being said is that there is an algorithm to predict the result of a game ?
What complete and utter tosh if so Betfred should be sweating ( other bookies are available )'"
There is. All bookies use them. The MM would be interesting if it was pre game only, possibly at half time too. A useful example of this the Sky Sports Predictor for their Greyhound racing which has sometimes tipped every single winner of the card. Obviously this is mostly based on times, but there are numerous other factors that are taken into consideration.
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| The problem is that the game ebbs and flows so it will always be playing catch up and so wont become at least marginally accurate until the last quarter.
It would be interesting to see what it predicts at the end of a match compared to the actual score. As that (providing the formula/criteria is accurate) should give an idea of whether the better side won.
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| Quote: Hessle Roader "Agreed, but it appears to be another reason to have Clarke waffling on.'"
He has slipped up actually,the meter is not in Wigan colours.
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| Quote: Dave Lister "There is. All bookies use them. The MM would be interesting if it was pre game only, possibly at half time too. A useful example of this the Sky Sports Predictor for their Greyhound racing which has sometimes tipped every single winner of the card. Obviously this is mostly based on times, but there are numerous other factors that are taken into consideration.'"
...except there are very few variables in greyhound racing.
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| Does anyone else think Phil Clarke looks like a thunderbird?
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| "We predict that the team which is losing by 30 at half time is going to lose by around 30".
After 60 minutes, the scores are almost level and momentum has completely swung around with the other team still having all the game:
"We predict that the team which is now scoring for fun and has all the momentum is going to win by 4"
They go 16 in front with 10 to go
"We predict they are gonna win by 22"
Other team scores the traditional late couple of consolation scores and lose by 6
"Interesting. We'll feed all this data into the system and see if the aArgin meter really can predict what the final score is going to be."
No, Phil, it can't. Speculating about the score is good fun and all very well. But pretending that your Margin Meter could ever be taken seriously is taking muppetry to a whole new level.
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| Quote: Dave Lister "There is. All bookies use them. ... A useful example of this the Sky Sports Predictor for their Greyhound racing which has sometimes tipped every single winner of the card. Obviously this is mostly based on times, but there are numerous other factors that are taken into consideration.'"
Algorithms? I thought bookies used highly paid odds compilers, to make a book, on the fly?
What's this Sky Predictor? If somebody invented a system that could go through a 12 race card at a greyhound meet, I'd be pretty sure it'd be owned by a guy in a gold plated yacht moored off Barbados.
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| I will put money on it being right more than it is wrong.
I will also put money on it not factoring in whether or not your star player's girlfriend has run away with his dad and has started sending him daily naked photos.
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| Quote: Dave Lister "There is. All bookies use them. The MM would be interesting if it was pre game only, possibly at half time too. A useful example of this the Sky Sports Predictor for their Greyhound racing which has sometimes tipped every single winner of the card. Obviously this is mostly based on times, but there are numerous other factors that are taken into consideration.'"
Sorry but a Bookie is far from accurate enough to really call it a scientific algorithm, at best a very educated guess otherwise no one would ever win??
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| Quote: vbfg "I will put money on it being right more than it is wrong.
I will also put money on it not factoring in whether or not your star player's girlfriend has run away with his dad and has started sending him daily naked photos.'"
as an aside would the photos be of dad or his girlfriend, if the latter can i be copied in ??
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