The Government based it's decision to implement social distancing on an Imperial College report. Going off that, social distancing is likely to continue for 12-18 months so we can consider the season done.

And next season too ?

If they stick to the recommendations of that report then at best it would start late. Lots of things are likely to change between now and then though (including people getting sick of putting their lives on hold) so who knows.

exactly , the government know 70 to 80 % of us will get this , some with no symptoms or with nothing more than a sore throat or little a slight temperature . All they are doing is keeping the numbers down so the N.H.S do not get over run , eventually they will have to let it take its course or the economy will never recover .Young people are not going to put their lives on hold for much longer when it has no serious impact on themselves

The first wave of Spanish flu at the end of WWI was typical in that it hit mainly the oldest and youngest but the 2nd wave was different hitting the 5-55 age group hardest.

yes, and it was 1918-1920, over 100 years ago, medicine and science have moved on somewhat, fingers crossed we don't see resurgence once the initial spread has abated, whenever that may be. Everyone is looking closely at China, the first spread appears to be lessening, what happens there in the ext six weeks when isolation measures are relaxed will tell us a lot.

Agree totally about the knowledge and care differences - 2 reasons why simple comparisons of such as death rates can be misleading. As for resurgence, the IC modelling shows repeated (although slowly decreasing) 'surges' with some of the mitigating actions being turned on and off at certain trigger points (% of icu bed occupation) occurring for a considerable period of time. I've not looked closely enough at the report to know if the reduction is due to assumed immunity building up in the population but any mutation of the virus could well put paid to that!

For much longer? It's been what, two days since any meaningful advice has been given by the Government? There are too many idiots in this country for any measures to ever be a success. Embarassing the state of this country at the moment, too many feel far too priviledged and don't have any backbone. It's likely a total lockdown is coming, this weekend or next and it'll be interesting to see how long that holds before you get looting and protests and social disorder. This country certainly won't behave well like the other countries in lockdown have. And it'll be those that have their spare room full from floor to ceiling with toilet roll and food they can't get through that will kick off and it'll be because they're spoilt and bored rather than desperate and starving.

Well at least they changed there mind. Government first response was herd immunity which would have seen crazy level of deaths when you have no vaccine.

Don't think it was and pretty sure the herd immunity comments were made in a reply to a question from the floor. The restrictions were always coming in, just question marks as to their timing for maximum effectiveness.

Apparently some 4000 French citizens appear to think the restrictions imposed by their government don't apply to them and have been fined for breaking them today.