Thanks, but I think you are right.

You could have let us beat you at yours couldn't you? It's all your fault...

If we'd collapsed in a ludicrous manner just the once to Cas rather than both home and away, things would now look a lot rosier. Ah well.

Is Harlequins beating Cas next week a good result for us?

No.

Cas will beat Celtic and get a play-off berth anyway. We need Cas to make sure Quins won't make the play-offs.

But if Cas win and Cats win, then it's all over, where as if Quins win, there is still another spot to play for. And still another 2 if Cats lose.

Yeah but Cas need to win 1 more, they have Celtic. Its better for us for Quins to lose.

But Cas have still got to play Celtic anyway, if they win next week then they are already in. And if Cats win aswell as Cas, that's us out of it.

Where as if they lose at Quins, then we are still in with a chance, and neither, Quins or Cas will have secured a play off spot.

Surley the best results for us would be for Quins to beat Cas and move up to 24 points and stop Cas from securing a playoff spot, aswell as Wolves losing at KR keeping them on 22 and Wakey beating Cats keeping Cats on 24.

That would then leave two playoff spots open on the final round providing we beat Salford.

With, Cas needing a win against Celtic, Harelquins needing a win at Wolves and Cats a win at Saints, and us needing a win at Hull.

Surley its better heading into the final round with two spots open as opposed to one(Wakey beating Cats hopefully)

Or am I confused?

Tbh I don't care who beats who if it gives us more chance of making the 8. Dilligaf may help us out tomorrow

Celtic at Cas is close to a bye for Cas, with the players they've lost and their pre-existing problems.

There is still a chance whether Cas or Quins win that game, but as Cas have to play Celtic, we can assume they're going to make the 8 win or lose next week. Equally well, if Quins and Wolves win next week then it's all over, as they play each other in the final week so one of them will win. I think we'd rather Cas beat Quins, KR beat Wolves and Wakey beat Cats. That way, last week, we need only rely on Saints doing what they do best!

You're confusion is in not taking into account the different probabilities of certain results occuring.

You're assuming that it must be better for there to be a large number of teams that we have a mathematical chance of overtaking, however small that possibility is. I'd say its better for there to be a smaller number of teams, but with a higher probability that we can overtake them

The likelihood of Cas losing at home to Celtic is minimal. There is a much greater likelihood of Quins losing to Cas and beating Wire than there is of Cas losing to Celtic.

If, as seems possible, we fail to qualify by one point, there will be an awful lot of "what if" debates. Early in the season it was argued that we should take encouragement from the closeness of some of our defeats. Now that seems to have been a major achilles heel.

Some Super League stats...

Wakey have only ever won once in France
Rovers have never beaten Wire in Hull
Cas have won on six of their last seven visits to London

MOTWYW

YOU are Statto and I claim my £5

Hope springs eternal!