Quote: M@islebugs "£1.5m (inclusive of VAT) from RFL for purchase of lease.
£1.5m debts now referred to by Blake Solly of RFL. I'm assuming this included the VAT from above so not to count twice.
500k raised from pledge
I haven't figured in the season ticket, Christmas merchandise or sale of Andy Lynch which could be considered had also gone by March nor have I projected the supposed 100k a month liabilities going forward.'"
£1.5m included the £250k VAT, so you will be counting twice.
What you appear to be demonstrating, if I read it correctly, is what the income shortfall must have been?
As I said earlier, I remain to see a breakdown of this £1.5m - I see you do not also refer to the £1.1m that has also been quoted. In particular, how much comprises creditors that crystalised only on administration.
Let us assume that a fair pre-administration figure was £1.1m, comprising VAT 250k Image Rights tax 250k, PAYE (May and June) £180k say, and other rugby and trade creditors and any remaining bank overdraft unpaid, net of any cash in bank, of £420k. Can't see trade creditors being that high given the club's poor credit standing.
Let us then consider the period since 1/1/11 to the date of the intervention, since this is the period since the last audited accounts on file.
Using your numbers, as amended by me above, we need to explain where the following went:
- £1.25m from the RFL for sale of lease Jan 2012
- £0.25m VAT on the above, unpaid, Jan 2012
- £0.25m Image rights tax, unclear when crystalised.
- £0.2m PAYE clocked up May and June 2012
- £0.4m other creditors unpaid at date of appointment.
- £0.5m pledge monies (0.4k from fans 0.1k from other sources) Easter 2012
- £0.1m for Andy Lynch (grrr...) say, late 2011.
Total £2.9m - OK still a pretty big number and close to the bottom of your range.
NOT including season ticket monies or RFL monies since to do so you also need to include all operating expenditure as well.
We can deduct from that the equivilent liabilities at 1/1/11, since it is only the MOVEMENT in those liabilities that need concern us.
Lost of guesses involved here, but lets say the equivilent liabilities were maybe:
- £0.1m PAYE (accounts)
- £0.25m image rights tax (goes back a long way - Hood said thge original claim was for £500k)
- £0.2m (say) to Leeds as last instalment for Harris.
- £0.3m other trade creditors (accounts)
- £0.1m bank overdraft (accounts)
- £0.05m of the £1.26m "accrued expenses" at 31/12/11 (I have only taken a tiny part, but key to part of the problem is just what was in there?)
Total a nice round £1m (and I'm hardly being heavy there?)
So that is £1.9m net operating cash outflow very very roughly - we need to explain. Not £3.5m, but still a pretty big number!
If I had to guess, I'd say that if the club lost £311k in 2010, it sure as hell will have lost a fair bit more in 2011. Whether at the rate of £100k/month who knows, but I bet we see a 2011 loss of maybe at least say £800k? Scary...
And lets say the club lost £100k/month Jan-June 2012, that's another scary £600k.
Take those two together, and you get £1.4m - leaving £0.5m to explain (and very very roughly, cos loads of guesses in there).
Now I preferered to come at it from another angle: we got £1.5m (incl VAT) for the lease. We apparently repaid an RFL loan of £0.7m, and had a bank overdraft to repay of around £0.3m, total £1m. That leaves a "black hole" (as I have called it for months now) of around £0.5m.
Either way, what you end up with is that RFL loan almost certainly funded the 2011 losses, and the previous board sold the lease to repay that. Selling the family silver is not a sustainable way to run a busines! The pledge effectively funded the 2012 losses up to around May, so again it was paying off losses already or to be incurred incurred. The board therefore clearly neded to find more monies (the additional £500k!) to fund the losses for the rest of the season from around May. All stacks up. Except we received $1.25m to repay £0.7m, leaving my £0.5m "black hole".
Which leaves me with two key question I would ask of the previous board, and indeed have asked on here for months now:
1 - The 2011 and 2012 monthly losses were clearly unsustainable. Recognising that you can't cut most costs overnight, what steps were you intending to take in 2013 to eliminate the losses?
2 - I am struggling to account for up to maybe £1/2m of the lease sale money - what happened to it? If indeed the maths make any sense (and I could be way out) then what liabilities was it used to settle?
And, to an incoming owner, I would ask the same question 1.