I guess you're making that assumption based on the poll forecasts. The one thing I've learned about polls over the years is that they are even more unreliable (and unstable) than governments. Which is a tremendous achievement when you think about it. Though that said, and given the way the press seems to drive public opinion, I tend to agree.

They are unreliable. They're unreliable in broadly predictable (though always changing) ways though. There are two main trends that make them particularly unreliable in this country. The biggest is the shy tory vote. I'm sure everyone's heard of that by this point. Lots of that going on right now.

The other main one is the effect of narrative. The side taking a battering from the prevailing narrative, and that's been the Tories since the manifestos came out, under performs in polls. Probably the best example is when Trump took a huge hit in the polls when the tape of him admitting to sexual assault came out. The actual share of the vote was roughly as the polls predicted prior to that. That's a pretty common theme.

My actual prediction is that there is a Labour surge, it will mostly happen in the bigger cities and it won't be enough.

Which is why May is keen for the election to go ahead in spite of Manchester & London. Another month would be the death of the Tories in this election. Which maybe shows you cannot polish a turd after all.
My experience of polls is they are bloody hard workers.

Think it will be a Conservative victory, no doubt about it. With an increased majority.

I would rather live the next 3 days in deluded optimism, followed by 5 years of misery, than 5 years & 3 days of misery, if that's alright with you.

I can see your point tigs. Unfortunately I got a look outside my usual bubble/echo chamber the other day and it wasn't nice. Be prepared for the worst and hope for the best.

The best I think you can hope for is a Tory majority much the same as it is now.

I think you are right. When submarine may announced the election I was fearing a 200 seat majority. If I had been told less than 50 seats I would have been elated. As it’s gone on I have allowed myself a hint of optimism. Either way I think May is toast. The election has galvanised opposition to the Tories. I have no doubt things will get worse under the Tories. They have already leaked no tax increases for the top earners, which means increases for low/middle earners, or further cuts. Either will consolidate opposition which will make May too unpopular to continue as they lose bye-election after bye-election. A minority government will be the end for her also.

The Tories are safe while Corbin, McDonal and Abbott are there.
We desperately need the Labour party to find a group of highly respectable people who will impress more than just a group of Corbin supporters. Maybe David Milliband may fit the bill when he gets a little older. Labour have a habit of having people like Foot, Kinnock, Milliband and now Corbin which lets them down. I voted for Blair and Brown but that didn't turn out great. They need to stay away from trade unionist type people who are great at demonstrations and find a set of boring steady headed business types as that is what the majority of voters look for in a politician. I have no doubt that Corbin is a good man and some of his ideas are good but he doesn't appeal to enough voters and that is what it is all about when trying to win an election. I think labour will do better than expected but it will end with a pat on the head and a "well done Jeremy, you gave it a good go" - but they now need to find a statesman / stateswoman type figure that has a real presence in world politics. I don't like Merkel much but she has a presence and leadership quality that Labour need to find for the next time around. We desperately need a strong Labour but they need to change their ways quickly if we are to ever get one.

Maybe wait and see how CORBYN (note the spelling) does in this election before writing him off?
I think the tories called this election fully expecting to gain a shedload more seats, but the way things have gone I'm not convinced that's going to be the outcome.
If Labour can come out of this without too much damage being done then I can't see Corbyn being under too much pressure to quit.

I still can't wrap my head around the arrogance of the tories in releasing a completely uncosted manifesto. They aren't getting anywhere near enough flak from the press as they should be for this imo. How can anyone vote for a party who have given you no indication of how your money will be spent? It's madness.

The press is 90% Conservative supporting so you won't see them get any flak from that quarter.

Labour's cause wasn't helped by Abbott and Corbyn not having their figures to hand when announcing flagship policies. If you're going to have a costed manifesto at least know the figures of the policies you're announcing. Whoever is briefing them is hopeless and they should know better than to turn up on radio unprepared.

Labour's policies are fine with me. I'm not convinced about many of the leadership as to their competence. But you could definitely apply that thinking to the Conservative front bench too. The likes of Johnson, Hunt and Fox to name three are arrogant and completely lacking in competence.

Momentum and the Trade Unions have been allowed to take over the Labour Party and that means they'll be unelectable for a very long time, while they promise everyone can have everything they want for nowt including re-nationalising industries en-masse at a cost of who knows what. It will all be funded by borrowing and much, much higher taxes and make no mistake it won't be corporations and the top 5% that pay for their wish list, they are highly mobile and masters of avoiding tax - you're all deluded if you don't think that bill is coming straight to Mr and Mrs Average.

On the flip side the Tories want to make us slaves to the market and small government, spending nowt in a utopian wealth creation model that never trickles down and leaves essential public services badly underfunded - Hobsons choice eh!

New Labour were onto something with their third way model, genuinely occupying the centre ground understanding that lower taxes and corporations create wealth, but using the mechanics of government to distribute and invest in public services, but for the global financial crisis it might have turned out very differently.

What I yearn for is a party that understands that occupying that central ground is pretty much all of us really want, if you work hard you become wealthier, but pay your way - if you can but choose not to work, then you get nowt. All the other stuff, defence, education, health etc. should be a given, and should have the funding it needs, no decent person would argue with that.

I agree Frank but moderation in politics has given way to populism and parties and people are more polarised than ever.

97-2010 seems like a dream now. Not sure how that 3rd will be making a return for some time.

What shall we call our new party

I am fully anticipating a Brexit/Trump style shock and will look forward to celebrating a Corbyn victory on Friday morning...

If that happens I will gladly eat your underwear.