1 in 2. Fact they have a girl already has no bearing on second child. So could be a boy or could be a girl. 2 possible outcome both equally likely.

I don't mind if they have makes it more interesting, I'm just making an assumption from what I have seen.

Would have been a crap final with no one there if it was Catalan vs huds say, only really 3-4 teams that could take 20k fans. So the stadium dosnt look empty.

Evens

Nope.

It is twice as likely to be a boy.

We know the parents have 2 children.

We know only that one of them is a girl.

Here are the only possibilities of what could have happened
1. Boy - Boy
2. Boy - Girl
3. Girl - Girl
4. Girl - Boy

We can eliminate no. 1 immediately, can't be boy-boy because one of the children (Myrtle) is not a boy.

But the other 3 remaining possibilities are equally likely. And in 2 out of 3, the sibling is a boy.

QED

Back on topic, players shouldn't tackle other players with techniques that they wouldn't want used on themselves.

2 and 4 are exactly the same result you are trying to say 10 + 5 = 15 but 5 + 10 doesn't = 15.
So only two possibilities which are equally likely so it's a 1 in 2 chance of being a boy.

Why are the permutations of their birth order significant? There's one child, and there's the other one.

My favourite illustration of probability would be the Monty Hall gameshow puzzle:

Suppose you're on a game show, and you're given the choice of three doors:

Behind one door is a car; behind the others, goats. You pick a door, say No. 1, and the host, who knows what's behind the doors, opens another door, say No. 3, which has a goat. He then says to you,
"Do you want to pick door No. 2?"

Is it to your advantage to switch your choice?

Yes....i think.

But I cant for the life of me remember why.

Completely agree, the rfl seem to think nothing was amiss with wigans tackling, would be a shame if all clubs had to coach these techniques to "not be disadvantaged in comparison to others" to paraphrase Wayne Bennet.

[url=http://www.thetelegraphandargus.co.uk/sport/sportbulls/10551133.Bradford_Bulls_boss_Cummins_reacts_to__massive_loss__of_Sidlow/cummins on rfl and wigan tacking[/url

[i"Cummins, who has ruled Blythe out for a month, was angered by the “cannonball” tackle he says caused the injury but will let the matter drop after lodging a complaint with the Rugby Football League.

..Cummins added: “I said at the time I wasn’t sure how Adam’s injury was caused but Matty Blythe has definitely had a direct contact with his knee from behind.

“I got feedback from the RFL but there was no action so obviously that must be legal.” [/i


I would have the Ref (or ideally a 2nd ref who is patrolling the PTB) shout held more quickly once a player is held up/tackled by 2 players and punish any movement by the tackling players (or the arrival of a 3rd) after shouting held that is not a release and move away motion. At the same time more rigidly enforce a Proper playing of the ball with the foot whilst stood still by the attacking player so as to not allow too quick PTB after a quick shout of held. We need to find some way of allowing tacking without it degenerating into touch and pass, but the tacking needs to be just tackling and not wrestling.

If held is shouted sooner it stops other defenders charging in on the attacker, and speeds the game up. If I wanted to watch a pile of men in a heap I would watch the other code!

On a related point it always worries me when I see defenders twisting limbs - normal after the tackle has been made.

No, i have set it out very clearly. this is the problem with people failing to understand probability. Even when you set it out, if they find it counter-intuitive, many people still won't have it. Don't worry - it's a common trait.

But clearly, having a girl first, and a boy second, is not the same thing as having a boy first, then a girl. This doesn't need explaining.


Because on the information you have, you do not know whether Myrtle is the older or younger child.

Now, if someone gave you additional information, and revealed that Myrtle WAS (say) the OLDER of the two children, that alters the probability. Why? Because now, you can exclude the Boy-Girl order of birth. That leaves 2 remaining possibilities, Girl-Girl, or Girl- Boy. And is an even money shout.

But if, as in the original scenario, you don't know whether Myrtle is the elder or younger, then Boy - Girl remains an equal possibility. That is the significance.

Statistically, if you picked a random sample of 100 families where they had had two children, and in each family at least one child was known to be a girl, it follows that on average you would expect to find an even distribution of birth orders. That is, there should on average be 25 G+G, 25 G+B, 25 B+G. There can't be any B+B. So that leaves 75 families standing.

If you have a £ on each family, and bet that in each case, the other child is a boy, then you will lose £25 on the G+G families, but you will win £25 + £25 = £50 on the G+B and the B+G families.

This is why the person who wrongly thinks, that in the given case of any of the families, it is an even money bet, can lose a lot of money. Exactly this principle is used to tempt mugs the world over in an extremely common three-card trick treet scam.