| FORUMS > Bradford Bulls > So To Make The 8? |
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Done. 25/01/17.: |
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| Quote: af "Hmm - I reckon that the chances of the 'out of our hands' bit coming off are
Wakey beat Catalans - 4/10
HKR beat Wire - 7/10
Cas beat Quins - 5/10
Saints beat Catalans - 8/10 (weakened side?)
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Wakey beat Catalans - 4/10
Wire beat HKR - 3/10
Cas beat Quins - 5/10
Saints (weakened side?) beat Catalans - 8/10
Quins beat Wire 2/10
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Wakey beat Catalans - 4/10
HKR beat Wire - 7/10
Quins beat Cas - 5/10
Saints (weakened side?) beat Catalans - 8/10
Wire beat Quins
And those three add up to a 2112/10000 chance - slightly better than 1 in 5.
Now, who was calling me a statto?'"
rlhttp://img.thesun.co.uk/multimedia/archive/00481/snf06ferg682_481721a.jpgrl |
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13747_1541715311.jpg
[b:3g5rrn89](and I feel fine)[/b:3g5rrn89]:d7dc4b20b2c2dd7b76ac6eac29d5604e_13747.jpg |
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| Quote: af "Hmm - I reckon that the chances of the 'out of our hands' bit coming off are
Wakey beat Catalans - 4/10
HKR beat Wire - 7/10
Cas beat Quins - 5/10
Saints beat Catalans - 8/10 (weakened side?)
+
Wakey beat Catalans - 4/10
Wire beat HKR - 3/10
Cas beat Quins - 5/10
Saints (weakened side?) beat Catalans - 8/10
Quins beat Wire 2/10
+
Wakey beat Catalans - 4/10
HKR beat Wire - 7/10
Quins beat Cas - 5/10
Saints (weakened side?) beat Catalans - 8/10
Wire beat Quins
And those three add up to a 2112/10000 chance - slightly better than 1 in 5.
Now, who was calling me a statto?'"
I don't understand that. Why do you have to add them all up? |
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731.jpg
Bradford gave us Hockney, Leeds gave us Moyles.:731.jpg |
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| Quote: debaser "I don't understand that. Why do you have to add them all up?'"
Within each scenario, you multiply the odds for each game. Then you add the three scenarios to find the total probability. Quite possible there's a snafu in and amongst though. |
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[b:3g5rrn89](and I feel fine)[/b:3g5rrn89]:d7dc4b20b2c2dd7b76ac6eac29d5604e_13747.jpg |
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| Quote: af "Within each scenario, you multiply the odds for each game. Then you add the three scenarios to find the total probability. Quite possible there's a snafu in and amongst though.'"
But only one of the scenarios could possibly happen right? So the probability of them all happening is nil. Surely?
This is when I wish I'd paid more attention in maths! |
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:44603.jpg |
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| Quote: af "Some Super League stats...
Wakey have only ever won once in France
Rovers have never beaten Wire in Hull
Cas have won on six of their last seven visits to London
MOTWYW'"
Not a SL stat, but Rover did beat Wolves in the CC in Hull. |
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731.jpg
Bradford gave us Hockney, Leeds gave us Moyles.:731.jpg |
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Any of the three would do us, so you add them. Same as if you need a face card, you could add the chance of a jack to that of a queen and that of a king. 4/52+4/52+4/52= 12/52 = 3/13. Which I reckon is slighly more likely than those results falling for us, fwiw.
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[b:3g5rrn89](and I feel fine)[/b:3g5rrn89]:d7dc4b20b2c2dd7b76ac6eac29d5604e_13747.jpg |
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| Quote: af "Any of the three would do us, so you add them. Same as if you need a face card, you could add the chance of a jack to that of a queen and that of a king. 4/52+4/52+4/52
Ok, I see. I think.
1 in 5. That's not too bad then.
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If we sneak in and finish 8th, who will we play?
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21910.gif
[u:b26ka63j][size=150:b26ka63j][color=black:b26ka63j][b:b26ka63j]I can accept failure, but I can't accept not trying.
[/b:b26ka63j][/color:b26ka63j][/size:b26ka63j][/u:b26ka63j]
[size=117:b26ka63j]Michael Jordan[/size:b26ka63j]:21910.gif |
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| Quote: Terry Monster "If we sneak in and finish 8th, who will we play?'" Who ever finish's 5th away. |
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Can we finish 7th, if so then who will we play?
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[quote="Bonzo":23qz4bj5]Corrected.
Incidentally, an exclamation mark ends a sentence and does not require a full stop. The first letter of the next word begins a new sentence and should therefore be capitalised. [i:23qz4bj5]Who needs flankers[/i:23qz4bj5]' grammar was actually correct.
HTH.
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| Quote: Terry Monster "Can we finish 7th, if so then who will we play?'"
If Cas lose to London AND Celtic then yes you can.  |
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| If we finished 8th we'd most probably have Wigan away again. Not been the best for us really, well the Hobart wasn't bad  |
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[b:3g5rrn89](and I feel fine)[/b:3g5rrn89]:d7dc4b20b2c2dd7b76ac6eac29d5604e_13747.jpg |
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| Quote: Terry Monster "Can we finish 7th, if so then who will we play?'"
Don't be getting greedy now... |
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| Quote: Cibaman "You're confusion is in not taking into account the different probabilities of certain results occuring.
You're assuming that it must be better for there to be a large number of teams that we have a mathematical chance of overtaking, however small that possibility is. I'd say its better for there to be a smaller number of teams, but with a higher probability that we can overtake them
The likelihood of Cas losing at home to Celtic is minimal. There is a much greater likelihood of Quins losing to Cas and beating Wire than there is of Cas losing to Celtic.
If, as seems possible, we fail to qualify by one point, there will be an awful lot of "what if" debates. Early in the season it was argued that we should take encouragement from the closeness of some of our defeats. Now that seems to have been a major achilles heel.'"
I think I get it now, coz if Quins lose(and Wolves), and we win, that moves us into 9th.
Then we only need a Catalans lose at Saints to nip into 8th, am I correct now? |
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fonds noir/Buzz Lightyear.gif
:fonds noir/Buzz Lightyear.gif |
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Quite a serious question - not a troll this. Would people rather get into the 8 by the skin of your teeth for this season and then be satusfied with a win in the playoffs followed by exit (probably the most likely scenario although if you're in it you can win it), or, would it be better NOT to qualify and perhaps see a change on the coaching front?
As I say, not a troll, because had Leeds done a tad better under Darryl Powell (e.g. if we'd managed to win the CC against you lot), Tony Smith would never have been brought in etc etc. Which in retrospect would have been a disaster, because despite what some - very odd - Leeds fans say, there was never ever a real sense of becoming a truly good team under Powell.
I guess its just that finishing 8th should in reality be hugely disappointing for the Bulls shouldn't it? And from what I gather you've put in some dreadful displays at times.
Or doesn't it matter because McNamara will stay regardless?
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