I worked out that we can still make it to the play-offs.

Is my calculation wrong or can we still make 25 points and leave Catalans and Wire on 24 if the results all go right for us?

I can't get onto any betting sites at work so I can't see if any of the bookies still have us to get there.

Are my maths wrong or can anyone let me know what the odds are?

I think we could scrape them, but we would have to win every game and hope every result goes our way. It wouldn't hurt to win by alot either in case we finish on the same points, but they'd have to get a draw.

We are 5 points behind Warrington in 8th place and there are 8 points available.

it not mathmatically impossible, but it is highly improbable

Nope, you're quite right. All the teams on 22 can win one more game and then need to lose the rest, whilst we need to win all our games.

The biggest problem is that Wire and Quins play each other, meaning one of them has to get points out of it. That's why we HAVE to win all our games, 3 games just won't be enough.

That's as well as needing none of Wire, Quins or Catalans to win more than 1 out of 4 games.

It's all a bit too much to hope really.

I think it would be fitting if we missed out because of the one point we dropped in the final seconds of the first game of the season.

We're not consistent enough to get into the 8.

I will reactivate my spreadsheet tonight - which I used to do precisely this a couple of weeks ago - and update and then report back - unless anyone else does it manually first. Alternatively, want me to send it to you Andrea?

Unless we win all 4 though, forget it. And even if we do, IIRC there may be just one or two permutations which would allow it - if that. Its likely a forlorn hope to be honest.

I don't think it's needed. It's fairly clear looking at the fixtures and table.

If we lose one game, we can't make it.
If Quins, Wire or Catalans win more than 1 of their remaining games, we can't make it (unless for each one that wins more than 1, one of Wigan, Cas or Wakefield lose ALL of their remaining games).

And that's not even taking into account Hull.

As long as that takes full account of who has still to play whom - for example whether one of those three will pick up two wins regardless just from games between themselves (draws excepting!) then that'll do for me!

It does. Only Quins and Wire play each other from those 3 (them and Catalans), so one is guaranteed 1 win, but not 2.

Cas play Wigan too, so one of those 3 (them and Wakey) is guaranteed to get the 1 win they need to guarantee playoffs.

Hull are no worries because we play them, they're only one point ahead so if we do win all our games we will overtake them, guaranteed.

A little while back I said one side would drop out of the eight like a stone and that looks to be Quins.

Guess we're relying on Salford, Hull and Celtic pulling their fingers out. Which is a shame as if we'd removed our digit from our posteriors at various junctures, this would not be necessary.

Ah well, s'not over till it's over. At least Wire might have an eye off the ball.

Let's just simplify it, coz I made everything way too complicated there.


1) If Bulls lose one single game, they can't make the playoffs.

2) If the Bulls win all their games then it will down to other teams games. What other teams need to do to avoid being caught by us:

Cas = Win 1
Wigan = Win 1
Wakefield = Win 1
Wire = Win 2
Quins = Win 2
Catalans = Win 2

We need to catch 3 of those 6. It's only possible to catch 5 of them, due to Cas playing Wigan, so one of them is bound to get a win (if we take draws out of the equation).

That's the bottom line on it all.

In that case, and its nailed on, then NFAR and job sorted!