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FORUMS > Leeds Rhinos > CC Draw: Leeds V Leigh
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Quote: Biff Tannen "What cannot be denied is that Wigan got a cake walk run to the final last year, including the final itself as it turned out'"

In the 5th round last season, they drew away from home the team who had knocked St Helens out in the previous round, though yes... I do agree they took advantage of a favourable CC draw last season. The same could not be said for Leeds in 2011 who failed to take advantage when presented with a very easybeat WBSLR route all the way to the Final itself and still required extra time to dispose of Castleford in the Semis.

Quote: Biff Tannen "and have had a cushy run so far this year (how much of a test Castleford will turn out to be in a couple of months time we will see). Most posters, including myself, have questioned ( in jest mainly) the outrageous run of luck Wigan are having but thats all it is, the good old luck of the draw.'"

Of course it's all about the good old luck of the draw and making the best of random opportunities which present themselves. Perhaps Leeds require a tougher assignment involving lots of away draws in order to succeed in the competition? Their 69% home draw percentage over the past decade hasn't yet delivered the bacon.

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Quote: William Eve "Exactly, the draws are random. I don't believe in the "6 V 9" ball conspiracy that was doing the rounds after the previous CC draw, nor do I believe Leeds have suffered an unlucky run in CC draws and it's about time they drew non-SL opposition.'"


...and this is where your argument falls down. We all know about how the RFL fix the draws - some balls in the freezer, some on the radiator and others left at room temperature.

It's just that Robinson got a little confused and instead of pulling a cold ball, pulled one at room temperature, this feckked up the entire process - FACT.

Wigan were supposed to play Keighley at home while we were supposed to play Warrington away.

Now the RFL have to reprint all the Wigan vs Castleford CC Final tickets they've already had printed.

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Quote: William Eve "Their 69% home draw percentage over the past decade hasn't yet delivered the bacon.'"


Talk about clouding the sky... both the semis and finals are played on a neutral ground so this argument is completely irrelevant. The route to the final has no bearing on the final itself. How can it?

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Just out of interest William, could you post the teams that are considered whiping boy rabble?

For me, home or away only matters when playing decent teams or French anyway. Home ve Oldham or away, its still a walkover.

I think the Leeds view that they have had 'hard' draws is based on getting SL opposition rather than Championship when the odds are against it in the early rounds. Its all relative though as anyone barring a top team should see Leeds progress, I think people would like to see Leeds face a team they can rest players for, but hey life isn't like that.

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Quote: The Eagle "Just out of interest William, could you post the teams that are considered whiping boy rabble?'"

Over the past decade? Every SL club apart from Leeds, Wigan and St Helens. Bradford up until 2007 but not since. Warrington from 2010 onwards.

Quote: The Eagle "For me, home or away only matters when playing decent teams or French anyway.'"

In that regard, Leeds have been drawn at home every time... Wigan 3 times, St Helens twice. And they drew a French team at home. I guess those draws could be described as randomly fortunate.

Quote: The Eagle "Home ve Oldham or away, its still a walkover.'"

Correct, but on the 7 occasions in the last decade that Leeds have drawn non-SL opposition, they've still been drawn at home 5 times out of 7. Again, more randomly fortunate than randomly unfortunate, wouldn't you agree?

Quote: The Eagle "I think the Leeds view that they have had 'hard' draws is based on getting SL opposition rather than Championship when the odds are against it in the early rounds.'"

Only in the opening (4th) round would that the case where there are 13 possibilities of drawing SL opposition (38% chance) and 18 possibilities (62% chance) of drawing non-SL opposition. During the last decade, Leeds have drawn non-SL opposition first up on 3 occasions out of 10.

The next round (5th) the odds change depending on the draw and results of the previous round. In 2014 and 2012, Leeds were presented with a 47% chance of drawing non-SL opposition. In 2013, only a 27% chance of drawing non-SL opposition presented itself. In 2011, only a 13% chance of drawing non-SL opposition presented itself.

In 2012, a 14% (or 1 in 7) chance of drawing non-SL opposition presented itself at the Quarter Finals stage of the competition. And it was Leeds who drew Leigh.

Quote: The Eagle "Its all relative though as anyone barring a top team should see Leeds progress, I think people would like to see Leeds face a team they can rest players for, but hey life isn't like that.'"

Modern day fans of Super League have certainly become accustomed to accepting mediocrity and dross. In fact, they've become so accustomed to it over the years, it's almost as if they welcome as many low-intensity fixtures during the season as possible where their team can rest players. It's an utterly bizarre mindset! Super League fans really are a moronic collective d040.gif

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Quote: William Eve "Over the past decade? Every SL club apart from Leeds, Wigan and St Helens. Bradford up until 2007 but not since. Warrington from 2010 onwards.

In that regard, Leeds have been drawn at home every time... Wigan 3 times, St Helens twice. And they drew a French team at home. I guess those draws could be described as randomly fortunate.

Correct, but on the 7 occasions in the last decade that Leeds have drawn non-SL opposition, they've still been drawn at home 5 times out of 7. Again, more randomly fortunate than randomly unfortunate, wouldn't you agree?

Only in the opening (4th) round would that the case where there are 13 possibilities of drawing SL opposition (38% chance) and 18 possibilities (62% chance) of drawing non-SL opposition. During the last decade, Leeds have drawn non-SL opposition first up on 3 occasions out of 10.

The next round (5th) the odds change depending on the draw and results of the previous round. In 2014 and 2012, Leeds were presented with a 47% chance of drawing non-SL opposition. In 2013, only a 27% chance of drawing non-SL opposition presented itself. In 2011, only a 13% chance of drawing non-SL opposition presented itself.

In 2012, a 14% (or 1 in 7) chance of drawing non-SL opposition presented itself at the Quarter Finals stage of the competition. And it was Leeds who drew Leigh.

Modern day fans of Super League have certainly become accustomed to accepting mediocrity and dross. In fact, they've become so accustomed to it over the years, it's almost as if they welcome as many low-intensity fixtures during the season as possible where their team can rest players. It's an utterly bizarre mindset! Super League fans really are a moronic collective
Well exactly - you have just contradicted yourself there W.E. If the SL is as mediocre and dross as you say then this whole debate is a waste of time - you may as well just be looking at games people have had v Wigan, Saints and Wolves post-2010. If the rest is as bad as you say, surely the likes of Leigh are no 'easier' than the likes of 'Ull, Cas, Salford or Catalans.

So which is it?

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Quote: Jamie101 "Well exactly - you have just contradicted yourself there W.E. If the SL is as mediocre and dross as you say then this whole debate is a waste of time - you may as well just be looking at games people have had v Wigan, Saints and Wolves post-2010. If the rest is as bad as you say, surely the likes of Leigh are no 'easier' than the likes of 'Ull, Cas, Salford or Catalans.

So which is it?'"


Be careful here - the entire debate so far has been with reference to the CC - Billy has thrown in his SL opinion as an aside, don't get drawn in to one debate and reference the other, William is too clever to let you get away with that.

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Quote: William Eve "Over the past decade? Every SL club apart from Leeds, Wigan and St Helens. Bradford up until 2007 but not since. Warrington from 2010 onwards.

In that regard, Leeds have been drawn at home every time... Wigan 3 times, St Helens twice. And they drew a French team at home. I guess those draws could be described as randomly fortunate.

Correct, but on the 7 occasions in the last decade that Leeds have drawn non-SL opposition, they've still been drawn at home 5 times out of 7. Again, more randomly fortunate than randomly unfortunate, wouldn't you agree?

Only in the opening (4th) round would that the case where there are 13 possibilities of drawing SL opposition (38% chance) and 18 possibilities (62% chance) of drawing non-SL opposition. During the last decade, Leeds have drawn non-SL opposition first up on 3 occasions out of 10.

The next round (5th) the odds change depending on the draw and results of the previous round. In 2014 and 2012, Leeds were presented with a 47% chance of drawing non-SL opposition. In 2013, only a 27% chance of drawing non-SL opposition presented itself. In 2011, only a 13% chance of drawing non-SL opposition presented itself.

In 2012, a 14% (or 1 in 7) chance of drawing non-SL opposition presented itself at the Quarter Finals stage of the competition. And it was Leeds who drew Leigh.

Modern day fans of Super League have certainly become accustomed to accepting mediocrity and dross. In fact, they've become so accustomed to it over the years, it's almost as if they welcome as many low-intensity fixtures during the season as possible where their team can rest players. It's an utterly bizarre mindset! Super League fans really are a moronic collective I would argue that Wigan could be exempted from top team status for a few of the years, whether we played them in the cup that year is for someone else to find out. Also, interesting that last years away trip to the league leaders shield winners was not counted as a top team. Did they not make it onto your list as they weren't proven enough, or that it didn't fit in with your agenda

I think what your post suggests to me is that the draw favours us in some ways (more home games than awstatistically expected), and less favourably in others (fewer lower league opponents than statistically expected).

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I don't care against whom we've been drawn & whether that's lucky/unlucky or fixed, all I know is that in over 25 years of supporting Leeds I've never ever seen us pick up the cup in person.
I've seen us lose it too many times to recall but the one time we won in 1999 I wasn't there to see it.
Every other argument/discussion/debate/wind-up is irrelevant to me.
Please let's get to Wembley this year, win the sodding thing & let me be there to witness it.
I don't give a fig who we beat on the way or there.

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Quote: William Eve "I guess those draws could be described as randomly fortunate.
'"


as is every random draw.Its either Randomly fortunate or randomly unfortunate.

No.

Really.

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Is Billy Eve even a Rugby Fan ?

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Quote: William Eve "Their 69% home draw percentage over the past decade hasn't yet delivered the bacon.'"


I think Leeds record for reaching semi finals (neutral venue) in the last decade is 2nd only to Saints

Congratulations on the thread btw, I bet you reached a semi getting to 11 pages icon_wink.gif

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Quote: Old Feller "I don't care against whom we've been drawn & whether that's lucky/unlucky or fixed, all I know is that in over 25 years of supporting Leeds I've never ever seen us pick up the cup in person.
I've seen us lose it too many times to recall but the one time we won in 1999 I wasn't there to see it.
Every other argument/discussion/debate/wind-up is irrelevant to me.
Please let's get to Wembley this year, win the sodding thing & let me be there to witness it.
I don't give a fig who we beat on the way or there.'"


As a life long Leigh fan, I was lucky enough to see us pick up the cup at Wembley in 71 against yourselves, against all the odds. I think the odds in the this cup tie may be a bit more against us though. Lety's just hope we don't totally disgrace ourselves. I don't think you have anything to worry about OF. You'll see them pick up all the silverware this season I think.
By the way, I think our fans may be able to drink more beer than yours.

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Quote: The Eagle "I would argue that Wigan could be exempted from top team status for a few of the years, whether we played them in the cup that year is for someone else to find out.'"

I would suggest both the 2005 and 2006 seasons considering Wigan's failure to make the play-offs along with a rather unusual record of winning only 2 out of 6 regular season SL fixtures against Leeds during that time. They had arguably returned as contenders in 2007 beating Leeds 3 times out of 4 that season which included two victories at Headingley (one of them in the CC).

Quote: The Eagle "Also, interesting that last years away trip to the league leaders shield winners was not counted as a top team. Did they not make it onto your list as they weren't proven enough, or that it didn't fit in with your agenda.'"

I've never been of the opinion that Huddersfield are genuine contenders for either the SL title or the CC. It's up to others if they wish to recognise the League Leaders Shield as a certificate bearing Huddersfield's authenticity as a top team when other clubs near the top weren't showing much enthusiasm for finishing 1st. It could be argued that certain clubs went out of their way to rest players and not give a toss during the last third of the regular season last year... Wigan in particular.

Quote: The Eagle "I think what your post suggests to me is that the draw favours us in some ways (more home games than awstatistically expected), and less favourably in others (fewer lower league opponents than statistically expected).'"

Taking all factors into account, the CC draws over the past decade have randomly favoured Leeds to a large extent. The favourable 69% home draw advantage allied to the hugely advantageous 100% home draws against top SL teams like Wigan and St Helens more than outweighs the minor inconvenience of having to face whipping boy SL rabble opposition more often than non-SL opposition.

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Quote: charlie caroli "Is Billy Eve even a Rugby Fan ?'"

If you're a fan of Charlie Cairoli, at least spell his name correctly.

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