It will be a Friday won't it?

This is getting silly now.

Draws are random, we all know that and all this wheeling out stats of who teams have drawn in the past X amount of years is both pointless and irrelevant.

What cannot be denied is that Wigan got a cake walk run to the final last year, including the final itself as it turned out, and have had a cushy run so far this year (how much of a test Castleford will turn out to be in a couple of months time we will see). Most posters, including myself, have questioned ( in jest mainly) the outrageous run of luck Wigan are having but thats all it is, the good old luck of the draw.

I thought the games were to be played on Saturday or Sunday, Friday not an option.
Yorks are away to Lancs on Friday in the T20 so not an issue for the ground.

Quote: William Eve "Given that Wigan's CC draws are often cited as far easier than Leeds (Flexwheeler has been particular noteworthy for pushing that particular agenda), their record over the past decade is as follows... In the last 10 seasons, Wigan have... 1) Been drawn at home only 13 times out of a possible 29. 2) Been unfortunately drawn away from home 16 times out of a possible 29. 3) Have drawn WBSLR 10 times out of a possible 29. 4) Have drawn Non-SL Rabble 11 times out of a possible 29. 5) Have drawn French Surrender Monkeys twice (UTC and Pia). 6) Have drawn serious SL opposition 6 times out of a possible 26 (Once at home, 5 times away). Wigan were drawn at home 45% of the time and away from home 55% of the time. Leeds were drawn at home 69% of the time and away from home 31% of the time. Wigan have drawn serious SL opposition 6 times, once at home, 5 times away from home. Leeds have drawn serious SL opposition 5 times, 5 times at home, never away from home.'" Anyone would think the cup draws are a game of chance, akin to balls randomly being pulled out of a hat... Oh, wait. All these 'stats' prove nothing to some degree - it just proves that teams got who they got. Not that there is an agenda in favour of, or against any team. If you look for 'coin toss probability' in maths, it is this in action. In theory, in say 30 cup draws, you'd expect to be drawn at home roughly about 15 times each, though there is a probable range either way so iy may be 17/13 for or 12/18 against. As it comes out much more in favour of one, say 2 at home, 28 against, or drawn to a then that is statisticlly more rare and improbable, but not impossible as each drawn is a new, random draw with a 50/50% chance of being drawn at home (or away). The more times you are in the bag to be drawn out, with time, the more it will get closer to 50/50. See this link and have a go yourself; www.basic-mathematics.com/coin-t ... ility.html Do it say 30 times each and i bet some of you may get lop-sided results but (in theory) the majority should get closer to 50/50. Incidentally i just did it and it ended 15/15. All this 'conspiracy' stuff is boring me now - there is no conspiracy or favouritism or anything like that. It is pure chance and with such things, some teams have more chance than others with regard to certain things - Leeds more home games, Wigan more away but apparently 'easier' teams...

Quote: William Eve "Given that Wigan's CC draws are often cited as far easier than Leeds (Flexwheeler has been particular noteworthy for pushing that particular agenda), their record over the past decade is as follows... In the last 10 seasons, Wigan have... 1) Been drawn at home only 13 times out of a possible 29. 2) Been unfortunately drawn away from home 16 times out of a possible 29. 3) Have drawn WBSLR 10 times out of a possible 29. 4) Have drawn Non-SL Rabble 11 times out of a possible 29. 5) Have drawn French Surrender Monkeys twice (UTC and Pia). 6) Have drawn serious SL opposition 6 times out of a possible 26 (Once at home, 5 times away). Wigan were drawn at home 45% of the time and away from home 55% of the time. Leeds were drawn at home 69% of the time and away from home 31% of the time. Wigan have drawn serious SL opposition 6 times, once at home, 5 times away from home. Leeds have drawn serious SL opposition 5 times, 5 times at home, never away from home.'" Anyone would think the cup draws are a game of chance, akin to balls randomly being pulled out of a hat... Oh, wait. All these 'stats' prove nothing to some degree - it just proves that teams got who they got. Not that there is an agenda in favour of, or against any team. If you look for 'coin toss probability' in maths, it is this in action. In theory, in say 30 cup draws, you'd expect to be drawn at home roughly about 15 times each, though there is a probable range either way so iy may be 17/13 for or 12/18 against. As it comes out much more in favour of one, say 2 at home, 28 against, or drawn to a then that is statisticlly more rare and improbable, but not impossible as each drawn is a new, random draw with a 50/50% chance of being drawn at home (or away). The more times you are in the bag to be drawn out, with time, the more it will get closer to 50/50. See this link and have a go yourself; www.basic-mathematics.com/coin-t ... ility.html Do it say 30 times each and i bet some of you may get lop-sided results but (in theory) the majority should get closer to 50/50. Incidentally i just did it and it ended 15/15. All this 'conspiracy' stuff is boring me now - there is no conspiracy or favouritism or anything like that. It is pure chance and with such things, some teams have more chance than others with regard to certain things - Leeds more home games, Wigan more away but apparently 'easier' teams...

According to rlTHIS SOURCErl, the schedule is as follows...

Quarter Finals (BBC Have 1st and 3rd Pick / Sky Have 2nd and 4th Pick)
Thu 5 June 8:00pm Challenge Cup 1/4 Final Match TBC LIVE Kick Off 8:00pm -
Fri 6 June 8:00pm Challenge Cup 1/4 Final Match TBC LIVE Kick Off 8:00pm -
Sat 7 June 2:00pm Challenge Cup 1/4 Final Match TBC LIVE Kick Off 2:30pm -
Sun 8 June 3:00pm Challenge Cup 1/4 Final Match TBC LIVE Kick Off 3:15pm -

Assuming the BBC select Wigan/Cas as their 1st pick, it'll be played Sat or Sun.
Sky will probably then select Bradford/Warrington to be played on Thu or Fri.

Which game will the BBC select as their 3rd pick? Leeds/Leigh? Or Widnes/Keighley? If they select Leeds/Leigh, it'll be played Sat or Sun. If they don't it'll be on Sky and played Thu or Fri.

Of course Sky may choose not to bother at all in the same way they didn't bother broadcasting a CC game in the 4th and 5th round, and if that turns out to be the case and Leeds/Leigh isn't selected by the BBC as their 1st or 3rd pick, then Leeds and Leigh are free to organise a kick-off date and time to suit themselves.

This season alone we have had to play SL opposition in Wakey and Saints - what's not to believe? It was unlucky. Random, but unlucky. It is nice for us to get the chance to rest a few.

Arguably you make it easier for yourself in drawing the best teams - only one can go through so if it is your team, then many of your main rivals will have gone. I'd rather us beat the likes of Saints and Wigan get Cas as they are the sorts of teams that have a chance of winning it.

Much rather that than ending up with semis of say; Leeds, Wigan, Saints and Wolves / Cas.

As long as we aren't the Friday game (i can't make it), all will be fine!

In the 5th round last season, they drew away from home the team who had knocked St Helens out in the previous round, though yes... I do agree they took advantage of a favourable CC draw last season. The same could not be said for Leeds in 2011 who failed to take advantage when presented with a very easybeat WBSLR route all the way to the Final itself and still required extra time to dispose of Castleford in the Semis.


Of course it's all about the good old luck of the draw and making the best of random opportunities which present themselves. Perhaps Leeds require a tougher assignment involving lots of away draws in order to succeed in the competition? Their 69% home draw percentage over the past decade hasn't yet delivered the bacon.

...and this is where your argument falls down. We all know about how the RFL fix the draws - some balls in the freezer, some on the radiator and others left at room temperature.

It's just that Robinson got a little confused and instead of pulling a cold ball, pulled one at room temperature, this feckked up the entire process - FACT.

Wigan were supposed to play Keighley at home while we were supposed to play Warrington away.

Now the RFL have to reprint all the Wigan vs Castleford CC Final tickets they've already had printed.

Talk about clouding the sky... both the semis and finals are played on a neutral ground so this argument is completely irrelevant. The route to the final has no bearing on the final itself. How can it?

Just out of interest William, could you post the teams that are considered whiping boy rabble?

For me, home or away only matters when playing decent teams or French anyway. Home ve Oldham or away, its still a walkover.

I think the Leeds view that they have had 'hard' draws is based on getting SL opposition rather than Championship when the odds are against it in the early rounds. Its all relative though as anyone barring a top team should see Leeds progress, I think people would like to see Leeds face a team they can rest players for, but hey life isn't like that.

Over the past decade? Every SL club apart from Leeds, Wigan and St Helens. Bradford up until 2007 but not since. Warrington from 2010 onwards.


In that regard, Leeds have been drawn at home every time... Wigan 3 times, St Helens twice. And they drew a French team at home. I guess those draws could be described as randomly fortunate.


Correct, but on the 7 occasions in the last decade that Leeds have drawn non-SL opposition, they've still been drawn at home 5 times out of 7. Again, more randomly fortunate than randomly unfortunate, wouldn't you agree?


Only in the opening (4th) round would that the case where there are 13 possibilities of drawing SL opposition (38% chance) and 18 possibilities (62% chance) of drawing non-SL opposition. During the last decade, Leeds have drawn non-SL opposition first up on 3 occasions out of 10.

The next round (5th) the odds change depending on the draw and results of the previous round. In 2014 and 2012, Leeds were presented with a 47% chance of drawing non-SL opposition. In 2013, only a 27% chance of drawing non-SL opposition presented itself. In 2011, only a 13% chance of drawing non-SL opposition presented itself.

In 2012, a 14% (or 1 in 7) chance of drawing non-SL opposition presented itself at the Quarter Finals stage of the competition. And it was Leeds who drew Leigh.


Modern day fans of Super League have certainly become accustomed to accepting mediocrity and dross. In fact, they've become so accustomed to it over the years, it's almost as if they welcome as many low-intensity fixtures during the season as possible where their team can rest players. It's an utterly bizarre mindset! Super League fans really are a moronic collective

Be careful here - the entire debate so far has been with reference to the CC - Billy has thrown in his SL opinion as an aside, don't get drawn in to one debate and reference the other, William is too clever to let you get away with that.