FORUMS > Leeds Rhinos > A few thoughts |
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| Quote: DoubleAone "Given that if we are to progress to the final we will have to play and beat Warrington at some stage to retain our crown...therefore do you want to reveal your full game plan in advance.
For me the big test this year will be on Friday night. Saints seem to have quietly gained some form and momentum recently.'"
They have, but you can't judge them by the HKR game on Saturday. Rovers were awful.
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| I bet Juan Cornetto has been having a good tugging session since Saturday. Kirke made 11 carries, and still made 20 tackles. That is some super human effort, considering he said last week you couldn't do that.
The fact the return was poor doesn't matter.
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| Quote: Gotcha "I bet Juan Cornetto has been having a good tugging session since Saturday. Kirke made 11 carries, and still made 20 tackles. That is some super human effort, considering he said last week you couldn't do that.
The facdidt the return was poor doesn't matter.'"
Do you know how his stats compared with the other forwards
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| Quote: The Magic Rat "Do you know how his stats compared with the other forwards'"
It's on the super league site. Quite favourably actually. What it did highlight though is the more carries he makes the less metres per carry he does. Which backs up the theory of his previous stats skewed by kick returns relative to few carries.
Also highlights how the returning unfit players were key to the defeat. Missed tackles and errors from them.
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| Quote: Gotcha "It's on the super league site. Quite favourably actually. What it did highlight though is the more carries he makes the less metres per carry he does. Which backs up the theory of his previous stats skewed by kick returns relative to few carries.
Also highlights how the returning unfit players were key to the defeat. Missed tackles and errors from them.'"
Thanks
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Quote: Gotcha "It's on the super league site. Quite favourably actually. What it did highlight though is the more carries he makes the less metres per carry he does. Which backs up the theory of his previous stats skewed by kick returns relative to few carries.'"
Kirke (in the Regular Rounds) averaged 6.92 carries for an average of 7.32 metres gain.
His lowest metres per carry (4.56 and 5.10) came in games when he made more carries than his norm (9 and 10) while his best metres per carry (13.5, 10.67 and 10.25) all came in games when he made much fewer (2, 3 and 4) and at least one of those was down to the prodigious Pat Richards drop-outs at the Etihad Stadium.
Last Saturday's game at Warrington (4.73 metres averaged from 11 carries) would appear to fall into that same pattern
A Kirke/Opta observation from the recent Wigan game can be found here: viewtopic.php?tsmp=1379258723&f=17&t=558195&p=17563411&sid=24c6b72c8d24993b689d9f22ee1e720d#p17563411
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Quote: Gotcha "It's on the super league site. Quite favourably actually. What it did highlight though is the more carries he makes the less metres per carry he does. Which backs up the theory of his previous stats skewed by kick returns relative to few carries.'"
Kirke (in the Regular Rounds) averaged 6.92 carries for an average of 7.32 metres gain.
His lowest metres per carry (4.56 and 5.10) came in games when he made more carries than his norm (9 and 10) while his best metres per carry (13.5, 10.67 and 10.25) all came in games when he made much fewer (2, 3 and 4) and at least one of those was down to the prodigious Pat Richards drop-outs at the Etihad Stadium.
Last Saturday's game at Warrington (4.73 metres averaged from 11 carries) would appear to fall into that same pattern
A Kirke/Opta observation from the recent Wigan game can be found here: viewtopic.php?tsmp=1379258723&f=17&t=558195&p=17563411&sid=24c6b72c8d24993b689d9f22ee1e720d#p17563411
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| Quote: Gotcha "I bet Juan Cornetto has been having a good tugging session since Saturday. Kirke made 11 carries, and still made 20 tackles. That is some super human effort, considering he said last week you couldn't do that.
The fact the return was poor doesn't matter.'"
You really need to read more carefully. My point was that there is a limit to what you can do if your minutes on the field are limited. So to make judgements without knowing the minutes is unfair. This last week I guess he was on the field for longer.
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| Quote: Juan Cornetto " This last week I guess he was on the field for longer.'"
That could go someway to explaining the scoreline
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| Quote: The Magic Rat "Do you know how his stats compared with the other forwards'"
The following are the stats you asked for.
1) Kylie.. 6.28 m/c 44m in 7 carries
2) JP... 5.7m/c 171m in 30 carries
3) Kirke 4,72m/c 52m in 11 carries
4) Delaney 4.21m/c 59m in 14
5) Ablett 4m/c 44m in 11
6) Singo 4m/c 20m in 5
7) JJB 3.82m/c 42m in 11
Last) Bailey 3.17m/c 19m in 6
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| Quote: Juan Cornetto "
Your estimate of how long Kirke was on at Wigan (like some others) was way off and so any extrapolation of the Opta stats with regard to involvement per minute for Kirke from the Wigan game would presumably likewise be way off.
Now this week for the Warrington game you're guessing he was on for longer. Could be worth a look.
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| Quote: tvoc "Kirke (in the Regular Rounds) averaged 6.92 carries for an average of 7.32 metres gain.
His lowest metres per carry (4.56 and 5.10) came in games when he made more carries than his norm (9 and 10) while his best metres per carry (13.5, 10.67 and 10.25) all came in games when he made much fewer (2, 3 and 4) and at least one of those was down to the prodigious Pat Richards drop-outs at the Etihad Stadium.
Last Saturday's game at Warrington (4.73 metres averaged from 11 carries) would appear to fall into that same pattern'"
I suppose it was a coincidence (you do seem to like a coincidence) that all the other forwards were way down on their average metres per carry too. I can understand why you would wish to mention this. Perhaps your theory overlooked the very fast (and offside) charging Warrington defence on this occassion. But then like the very important minutes played stat, I bet it's also missing from the spreadsheets.
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| Quote: Gotcha "Quite favourably actually. What it did highlight though is the more carries he makes the less metres per carry he does. Which backs up the theory of his previous stats skewed by kick returns relative to few carries.'"
You can choose to believe this unproven theory or you could consider that all our forwards also made far less metres per carry than they normally do in this match and Kirke still had the 3rd best m/c. Would it be too far fetched to think the Warrington rushed defence and offside had anything to do with it?
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| Quote: tvoc "Your estimate of how long Kirke was on at Wigan (like some others) was way off and so any extrapolation of the Opta stats with regard to involvement per minute for Kirke from the Wigan game would presumably likewise be way off.
Now this week for the Warrington game you're guessing he was on for longer. Could be worth a look.'"
My estimation was just that. My estimation. The Opta stats do not include the important minutes per match and their interchange records (like the Leeds site) are always incomplete so I only give my estimation and accept it could be wrong. That is why I argue against critical judgments made against players for a low number of carries if they have made a reasonable number of tackles in a limited time on the field.
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| Quote: Juan Cornetto "I suppose it was a coincidence (you do seem to like a coincidence) that all the other forwards were way down on their average metres per carry too. I can understand why you would wish to mention this. Perhaps your theory overlooked the very fast (and offside) charging Warrington defence on this occassion. But then like the very important minutes played stat, I bet it's also missing from the spreadsheets.'"
There was a wider observation re Kirke's high and low metre per carry games which looked beyond this one encounter - that this one encounter appeared to fall in line with could be just one of those coincidences but there again it might reflect the observation that making fewer carries a game can distort the outcome. Have you analysed the legality and defensive line speeds in those other encounters also?
As for minutes - at least one of us will occasionally make an effort to ascertain some, even though it's not the one who places the biggest emphasis on it before often reaching questionable conclusions.
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Quote: Juan Cornetto "My estimation was just that. My estimation. The Opta stats do not include the important minutes per match and their interchange records (like the Leeds site) are always incomplete so I only give my estimation and accept it could be wrong. That is why I argue against critical judgments made against players for a low number of carries if they have made a reasonable number of tackles in a limited time on the field.'"
Then are you yourself defending without also knowing the length of a stint?
Now that you hopefully do know (and to the second thanks to some helpful contributor - viewtopic.php?f=17&t=558195&tsmp=1379426559&start=55) how long Kirke played at Wigan are you standing by your judgement of his effort in that game - which included the novel 'you can't make tackles on defence and be expected to carry the ball in on attack when you're a prop' , it's just that you haven't returned to the thread in question almost as if you are trying to avoid it - and I know that won't be the case here.
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Quote: Juan Cornetto "My estimation was just that. My estimation. The Opta stats do not include the important minutes per match and their interchange records (like the Leeds site) are always incomplete so I only give my estimation and accept it could be wrong. That is why I argue against critical judgments made against players for a low number of carries if they have made a reasonable number of tackles in a limited time on the field.'"
Then are you yourself defending without also knowing the length of a stint?
Now that you hopefully do know (and to the second thanks to some helpful contributor - viewtopic.php?f=17&t=558195&tsmp=1379426559&start=55) how long Kirke played at Wigan are you standing by your judgement of his effort in that game - which included the novel 'you can't make tackles on defence and be expected to carry the ball in on attack when you're a prop' , it's just that you haven't returned to the thread in question almost as if you are trying to avoid it - and I know that won't be the case here.
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