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FORUMS > Leeds Rhinos > NEW COACH | Richard Agar - Rolling Contract
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We have lost quite a few close-ish games this year where there has only been a try or two in it.

I think we are a mile off Saints, but within touching distance off the rest (maybe except Wigan, who have recruited very strongly for next year).

Anyway we’ll find out in a few more months either way.

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Quote: Fallon "Most people will agree that the squad isn't good enough, though it is better than it was at the start of the season.

I don't believe we can say whether the backroom is good enough or not yet. Agar has won 50% of his games. If he had done that all season we would be going into the last game with a shot at the top 5. Don't get me wrong, that is a much a damning indictment of how inconsistent all but saints have been but I'm pretty sure if we had been playing for a top 5 spot and not fighting for relegation many would have been broadly happy given where we were last season.'"


This is getting daft now, how people keep quoting incorrect stats and not looking at it in the bigger picture. And this is not picked st you Fallon as others keep doing it.

We lose this weekend and Agar has a record of 43%, not 50%. He will have won seven of 16. That is a poor record for any top club at any time. This is despite if you go back to the thread on seasons expectations before the season started, every man and his dog stated that the first quarter of the season would be very hard, but the second half much easier, due to the fixture list. Suddenly this fact is now conveniently forgotten, and this despite the very posters ignoring it were actually saying it before the season started.

We have had an easier fixture list during Agar’s reign, and the very games he has lost were what we played more of and lost in the first part of season.

If he repeats the same win record next season, then we will win 12 of our games, that’s 12. Coincidentally, including the one round cup game, is exactly the same as we have done this season. The same record.

That all said, the information I got from last nights awards, is that the club fully expect there to be no relegation from Super League next season, and plan to push the younger players through as a result. IF that is the case and happens, and we can have a quality half to bring them along, then I could actually back that. As let’s be honest we do need that sweep through, and forget about results as a consequence.

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I could argue with you all day on stats Gotcha - you can use numbers to support any position you like can’t you? (Generically, not just you).

Teams change form throughout a season - our team has changed throughout the season in personnel too. Catalans we’re looking strong for a while, then the wheels fell off. Wigan when they played us looked pitiful - now they’re being touted as GF contenders.

Stats aren’t everything in RL where there are so many variables to account for.

I’d even point out that the home advantage this season if anything looks like we’ve had players affected by the pressure of the crowd.

Anyway - if P&R is suspended next year that would be a wonderful thing for us as you say. Let’s hope that is the case and they expand SL - it seems the no-brainier way forward to avoid these stupid loop fixtures. Whoever came up with that one needs some time in a small room with Kelvin Skerrett.

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Quote: KaeruJim "I could argue with you all day on stats Gotcha - you can use numbers to support any position you like can’t you? (Generically, not just you).

Teams change form throughout a season - our team has changed throughout the season in personnel too. Catalans we’re looking strong for a while, then the wheels fell off. Wigan when they played us looked pitiful - now they’re being touted as GF contenders.

Stats aren’t everything in RL where there are so many variables to account for.

I’d even point out that the home advantage this season if anything looks like we’ve had players affected by the pressure of the crowd.

Anyway - if P&R is suspended next year that would be a wonderful thing for us as you say. Let’s hope that is the case and they expand SL - it seems the no-brainier way forward to avoid these stupid loop fixtures. Whoever came up with that one needs some time in a small room with Kelvin Skerrett.'"


You could try and argue but you would be wrong icon_wink.gif . In fact go back to that thread I mentioned, and look at you own posts. Nobody can argue against our second half fixtures were much easier than our first half.

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Regarding gotchas comment. If the club came out and said next season is a year to develop youngsters (assuming no relegation) with lots academy players getting worth while game time. I too could buy into that. It’s when they say we’re in transition but then fill the squad with mediocracy and journeymen

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Stats can be twisted to suit any argument, I mean if were using stats to prove a point we have one of if not the best Winger in Superleague, not the worst, right? icon_wink.gif

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Quote: christopher "Stats can be twisted to suit any argument, I mean if were using stats to prove a point we have one of if not the best Winger in Superleague, not the worst, right?
icon_thumb.gif

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Quote: christopher "Stats can be twisted to suit any argument, I mean if were using stats to prove a point we have one of if not the best Winger in Superleague, not the worst, right? You are right fella, I'm simply pointing out that the margins this season between success (getting top 5 for us given where we were) and failure (relegation fight yet again) were slim and had we had a stronger squad and agar from the start we could have amassed those few extra points to tip the scales. So let's get behind Agar, a guy who has done nothing wrong at Leeds and support him.

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Quote: christopher "Stats can be twisted to suit any argument, I mean if were using stats to prove a point we have one of if not the best Winger in Superleague, not the worst, right?
Facts can't be though. And the stat used was simply the one in truth to what people are using incorrectly. You can't say his win record is X, when it is not, and then use that X as a barometer of his record without taking into account the true comparison. Sure stats can be interpreted differently and spun, but what is right in front of your eyes shouldn't be ignored.

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Quote: Gotcha "Facts can't be though. And the stat used was simply the one in truth to what people are using incorrectly. You can't say his win record is X, when it is not, and then use that X as a barometer of his record without taking into account the true comparison. Sure stats can be interpreted differently and spun, but what is right in front of your eyes shouldn't be ignored.'"



But you weren't using a correct stat either, you said if we lose his win rate will be... well we haven't played that game yet, the fact is in SL Agar's win rate is 50%

Is that good enough - no it isn't, but then evening out the 'easier' fixtures you mention, you have to factor in he took over the team when it was in a mess and it was never going to be a quick fix.

ATEOD the only facts that matter at this stage is we are in SL and he will live or die by the results next season - this years stats will mean nothing when the season starts in February.

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As a wise man once said "People can come up with statistics to prove anything, 40% of people know that".

Surely the only thing we can all agree on is that i) a 50% (at best) win ratio for the second part of the season, and ii) that if we had won the close games we could be top 5, is a damning indictment of the quality of rugby both at Headingley and across SL?

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He's got the gig now so let's see how much progress is made from the start of next season

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Quote: HRS Rhino "
Surely the only thing we can all agree on is that i) a 50% (at best) win ratio for the second part of the season, and ii) that if we had won the close games we could be top 5, is a damning indictment of the quality of rugby both at Headingley and across SL?'"


Sure can. Which is why anything less than a play off spot or a close shave with it should be considered as a failure next season.

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Quote: Joshheff90 "Regarding gotchas comment. If the club came out and said next season is a year to develop youngsters (assuming no relegation) with lots academy players getting worth while game time. I too could buy into that. It’s when they say we’re in transition but then fill the squad with mediocracy and journeymen'"

It is a transition. But you’ve still to avoid relegation so clubs toward the bottom end quite understandably go safe and bring in journeymen/average Aussies etc.

It’s why relegation is such a destabilising factor for the sport. This season 50% of the sports fully professional clubs can’t plan properly for next season or any of the seasons after it because they don’t know if they’ll be in a professional league or not.

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Anyone guess which coach had a 61% win ratio with Leeds, and is now enjoying a 93% win ration? Anyone?

Sorry but quoting win percentages everywhere is a fundamentally flawed argument.

It is one indicator.

Brian Mac had a 37% win percentage at London before joining Leeds, and we all know what happened then.

How does the coach relate to media and sponsors? How do they relate to the key leaders in the team? What style of rugby do they promote? Do they give youth a chance, and give them the protection and support they need? Are they honourable and in line with organisational values? Technical v emotional?

So many components make up a good coach, and unless you had different coaches operating at the same time with exactly the same players and fixtures, it's extremely difficult to compare.

Coaches are also human and change/develop over time, it's not even a fixed quantity.

There are a million different factors which support organisational success/winning trophies, it's far more complex than previous win ratios over timescales which suit one point of view.

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