FORUMS > Leeds Rhinos > Can Leeds qualify for the Top 4? |
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| Quote: vbfg "Was there an earlier date when the 50% rule first came in? That might explain the difference.
There are certainly references to it existing prior to the dates you mention, and not speculating about its coming. rlTalking about its effectsrl. rlHererl as well. And rlthisrl, which Google picked up '99, has Caisley talking about it too (para 19) .
I don't doubt you, what you're saying is starting to ring a bell (my initial comment you picked up on was an aside really, and my interest in the analysis in the first place was comparing with the NRL rather than looking at the effects of the cap). It's just odd that there are references to it before then.'"
yeah, im not sure when exactly it came in but the 50% rule came in first, not really a hard cap. Wakefield of all clubs were the first to break it in 2001, spending 60%.
One thing that does tell us though is that in the early 2000's Wigan were turning over at least 6.4m, which despite growth in their crowds and a huge cash increase in TV money (if not really in real terms) Wigans turnover hasnt grown an awful lot in 15 years. Which lets face it is the major problem the game faces. Income has stagnated at most clubs and we just arent doing a huge amount to move forward.
With regards to the NRL and the comparison there, the major difference between us is player numbers. NRL has a surplus, we have a deficit. They have tons of players busting to get to the next level, we have too many clubs scraping the same pool. And i would say that rather than make it better (which it should have done) the recent changes have made that worse. The cut to 12 should have seen a concentration of talent, except instead of us going from 14 clubs trying to make 14 SL sides out our player pool to 12 clubs trying to make SL sides out of the same pool, we have gone to 14 plus 3 or 4 kinda trying.
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| To be honest, I don't give a monkey's about players. I care about competitive games. It is far and away my primary interest. I want close games, more distribution of wins and doubt over the victor at kick off time. It's all I've ever cared about. On that, we are not the far off the NRL at all.
edit: Interesting point on player distribution between the leagues here though. I hadn't considered that, but you're right there.
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| Quote: vbfg "There are plenty of other systems that are used in US college sports for figuring out which of these teams in a league of over a hundred, some of whom have never even heard of each other never mind played, make it to the play-offs. These do take points difference into account. rlKen Massey'srl is popular, and whilst I've got a method for it I've never tried doing something like this with it.'"
FWIW, these are the Massey numbers as of this morning for relative strengths of attack and defence.
Attackhttps://i.imgur.com/G8ACSsF.png" >
Defencehttps://i.imgur.com/lAB0M4N.png" >
This system takes into account the relative strengths of who was played, the points difference and whether the results happened at home or away.
Defence isn't great but far from the worst. But on results so far your attack, or rather your ability to score, is very much the worst.
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| Quote: vbfg "FWIW, these are the Massey numbers as of this morning for relative strengths of attack and defence.
This system takes into account the relative strengths of who was played, the points difference and whether the results happened at home or away.
Defence isn't great but far from the worst. But on results so far your attack, or rather your ability to score, is very much the worst.'"
Interesting.
Do you have a combined attack and defence Massey ratings table?
I'd be interested how that matches up to the SL table as it currently stands.
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| One thing to bear in mind about these kinds of rating systems though is that whilst they reflect the overall they aren't necessarily an accurate picture of how things are right now. These come from all the results so far this season. Widnes? Great team this year, and with some great results. Beating Wigan at Wigan is a +1 in anybody's book. Their being second in this table doesn't quite smell right on current runs of form though.
They're just a means of comparison. They're not the definitive truth about the near future.
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| Leeds have absolutly no chance of qualifying for top 4,I think all right thinking fans have come to that conclusion,we have a squad of players who've either not been properly coached or just not motivated,just picking up wages no matter what result is,as long as there's plenty of money coming through gate that's GH happy.
Sick of hearing so called positive attitude in training,it's quite obvious that the squad is fractured and no cohesion between team and coaching.need to look to next season with a different mentality at Leeds.they defiantly don't have the same drive or work ethic of previous seasons which suggests internal problems.cant see why a player walks off the pitch at end of a game and suddenly he's out for 8-10 weeks(briscoe).seriously need to be looking at some major signings next season to revitalise an ageing squad.
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| I've never known so many players to be out with such long term injuries
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| Quote: lionarmour87 "I've never known so many players to be out with such long term injuries'"
None of the "injured" players want to rush back into a losing set up.
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| With results this weekend and our performances to date, I'm more concerned at the moment with will we qualify for the top 8's?
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| Quote: cheekydiddles "With results this weekend and our performances to date, I'm more concerned at the moment with will we qualify for the top 8's?'"
Probably 8 wins from the following 13 remaining fixtures are required for a Top 8 place.
Where are those 8 wins coming from?
Hull H
St Helens A
Huddersfield A
Castleford H
Wigan (Newcastle)
Warrington A
Catalans H
Salford H
Wakefield A
Widnes H
Hull A
Wigan H
Hull KR A
KEY
Green - Not Played Yet
Blue - Won
Red - Lost
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| its feasible we win 4 or 5 of our home games but that is being very optimistic.i just don't see us picking up points away as we are yet to do so on the road.Its all but settled we are middle 8 imo.
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| Quote: Biff Tannen "its feasible we win 4 or 5 of our home games but that is being very optimistic.i just don't see us picking up points away as we are yet to do so on the road.Its all but settled we are middle 8 imo.'"
Don't know if you've watched McDermott's post game interview from Salford but one of the obsequious RL journos dared to ask him whether Leeds would still make the Top 8 this season? He nodded in the affirmative and said yes, then pulled a face and smiled.
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| I see no reason -given the squad we have and the potential we've recently started to show - that we can't go the rest of the season unbeaten.
Nah...worst form slump I can remember since err..possibly ever?
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| Leeds won't make the 8, simple as.
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