FORUMS > Leeds Rhinos > Referendum and Rugby League |
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| Quote: tvoc "Nothing has actually changed yet. The UK is still in the EU, it doesn't sound like there is any rush to trigger article 50, lots still to and will happen between now and then.
PM in waiting at the start of this process appeared to be hoping for a leave vote only as a prelude to a genuine renegotiation of the terms to UK's EU membership as opposed to the faux one delivered by the then incumbent.
Parliament is sovereign, the vast majority of the house were in favour of remain, the referendum is advisory and these are politicians.'"
No big rush to trigger article 50. Once done it will take up to two years of negotiations so another few months is neither here nor there. However another few months to work out a plan so we do not waste the two years seems a good idea. Also there is an argument to take even longer to enable us to start negotiations outside the EU because if we have been able to line up a few other agreements this will strengthen our resolve against the EU punishment talk.
Before we begin our official negotiations with the EU we should be talking with the business leaders in the EU countries and our own export customers who should bring pressure on the political leaders.
Finally another reason to delay for a bit is because the EU Eurocrats have tried to fix the ground rules by issuing demands that we start the process without delay. So important we show them from start that we will not be bullied and that the process starts when we are ready and not before as is our right.
The majority if not all MP's said they would honour the vote so no conspiracies.
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| If Boris Johnson looked downbeat yesterday, that is because he realises that he has lost.
Perhaps many Brexiters do not realise it yet, but they have actually lost, and it is all down to one man: David Cameron.
With one fell swoop yesterday at 9:15 am, Cameron effectively annulled the referendum result, and simultaneously destroyed the political careers of Boris Johnson, Michael Gove and leading Brexiters who cost him so much anguish, not to mention his premiership.
How?
Throughout the campaign, Cameron had repeatedly said that a vote for leave would lead to triggering Article 50 straight away. Whether implicitly or explicitly, the image was clear: he would be giving that notice under Article 50 the morning after a vote to leave. Whether that was scaremongering or not is a bit moot now but, in the midst of the sentimental nautical references of his speech yesterday, he quietly abandoned that position and handed the responsibility over to his successor.
And as the day wore on, the enormity of that step started to sink in: the markets, Sterling, Scotland, the Irish border, the Gibraltar border, the frontier at Calais, the need to continue compliance with all EU regulations for a free market, re-issuing passports, Brits abroad, EU citizens in Britain, the mountain of legistlation to be torn up and rewritten ... the list grew and grew.
The referendum result is not binding. It is advisory. Parliament is not bound to commit itself in that same direction.
The Conservative party election that Cameron triggered will now have one question looming over it: will you, if elected as party leader, trigger the notice under Article 50?
Who will want to have the responsibility of all those ramifications and consequences on his/her head and shoulders?
Boris Johnson knew this yesterday, when he emerged subdued from his home and was even more subdued at the press conference. He has been out-maneouvered and check-mated.
If he runs for leadership of the party, and then fails to follow through on triggering Article 50, then he is finished. If he does not run and effectively abandons the field, then he is finished. If he runs, wins and pulls the UK out of the EU, then it will all be over - Scotland will break away, there will be upheaval in Ireland, a recession ... broken trade agreements. Then he is also finished. Boris Johnson knows all of this. When he acts like the dumb blond it is just that: an act.
The Brexit leaders now have a result that they cannot use. For them, leadership of the Tory party has become a poison chalice.
When Boris Johnson said there was no need to trigger Article 50 straight away, what he really meant to say was "never". When Michael Gove went on and on about "informal negotiations" ... why? why not the formal ones straight away? ... he also meant not triggering the formal departure. They both know what a formal demarche would mean: an irreversible step that neither of them is prepared to take.
All that remains is for someone to have the guts to stand up and say that Brexit is unachievable in reality without an enormous amount of pain and destruction, that cannot be borne. And David Cameron has put the onus of making that statement on the heads of the people who led the Brexit campaign.
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| Quote: nantwichexile "If Boris Johnson looked downbeat yesterday, that is because he realises that he has lost.
Perhaps many Brexiters do not realise it yet, but they have actually lost, and it is all down to one man
Entirely plausible point of view, think this was an article published in the Guardian on-line today...are you a Journo Nantwich? Oh and leaving the EU is a truly disastrous and utterly self defeating piece of 1970's style politicking the like of which I had hoped we'd seen the back of. Lift to Scotland anyone?
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| ultra left wing paper publishes anti tory article. shocked
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| The Guardian is "ultra left wing"?
Interestingly, despite the big dips in the markets, London performed better then any other major EU country.
Thinking about this from a non-EU perspective. This is a huge opportunity for other major economies to renegotiate it's trade agreements with the UK, and broker new deals without having to factor in the EU.
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| Not my thoughts...but very interesting again...
People say a second referendum is unlikely and political suicide. I don't think it is as unlikely as people think. So many who voted Leave now realize what the costs will be and how the Leave campaign has already broken major promises. It's finally sinking in that leaving the EU is going to mean the destruction of the United Kingdom. People now realize that once you leave the EU there is no coming back for decades.
The pressure for a second referendum will keep rising and how can a prime minister deny the will of the people who will want another democratic election. It is still democratic after all and if the people wish to leave the votes would reflect that. Of course the vote will likely heavily go towards Remain now the large chunk of undecided, soft Leave and people who didn't show up (screw them) actually go vote. The whole crisis will be averted and UKIP will have to make peace with that if it goes heavily towards Remain. Even Farrage wanted another referendum if it was 52/48 and that quote is going to haunt him for a long time.
Calling a second referendum might be political suicide for the next Tory prime minister but they are going to commit political suicide taking the position anyway and none of them really want that legacy.
It is not legally binding and parliament can undo it. This is mass hysteria we're seeing, I think.
There’s also a possibility that we could see a parliamentary vote on the Brexit before Article 50 is invoked. This could get interesting, as a majority of the 650 members of the House of Commons favor remaining in the EU. Whether they would overrule their own voters is another question. Members of the Scottish National Party are safe anti-Brexit votes, but pro-EU Conservatives would be afraid of losing more ground to the insurgent U.K. Independence Party. The Labour Party seems to be in complete disarray and in the course of ousting its own leader.
The Tories have already gone back on their promises "Cameron has said he would immediately trigger article 50 because “the British people would rightly expect that to start straight away”. and instead of doing that (as I said he would from the moment the vote came in btw) dude was all like whoosh and just vanishes without triggering article 50.
Boris Johnson, who may be the next PM, has already flip flopped on the matter, starting out as "In" but then going to "Leave" in order to attack Cameron, basically. But Johnson has exactly zero integrity, the man is a pathological power hungry liar and will do anything to retain power.
Right now, today, this minute yeah, it'd be "political suicide" for him to "go against the will of the people" but what about in a week when the pound has tanked, the world economy has destabilized, Scotland / N. Ireland / Gibralter / etc. petition to leave, more of the Leave campagins's HUGE lies are exposed as lies (all that money for NHS, stopping immigration, etc.) etc, etc, etc. The tide is already turning, many mouthbreathers are waking up and ing googling "what is the European union" and learning about what they've done and regretting it, etc, etc and it's literally only been a day.
Give it a week or maybe a few and it'll be "political suicide" to trigger article 50, no matter what "promises" were made.
Also, Theresa May is IMO the more likely PM candidate and she is pro-Remain.
Honestly, I would be pretty stunned if Brexit actually happens. I really do not think it will at this point. I could be wrong, but I've been pretty right so far about Cameron being outed (I also think Corbyn is going down next week). But we will see, of course.
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| Both sides lied through their teeth because nobody really knew what was going to happen if we voted leave.
I just don't see how anyone who advocates democracy can look at the EU, it's financial and economic policies, how it works, and the people who run it and believe it to be a barometer for democracy, and if you're not sure about just who's interests the EU serves Google the ERT.
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| If the Tory government don't activate article 50 the next prime minister in 2019 or even sooner, will be Nigel Farage.
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| If a majority of our MPS vote the referendum motion down that‘s it dead and buried. The EU cannot force us to trigger Article 50 even if our MPs vote it through ; the timing is entirely up to us. So one possible scenario which occurs to me is a new Prime Minister gets Article 50 passed and then holds a gun to the head of the EU President saying : “the referendum gave me this gun, Parliament has loaded it (thus complying with the spirit of the referendum) and I can now choose to pull the trigger any time I like ; which could be today, next year or next century - what concessions will you give me to try to persuade me tokeep on delaying pulling it ? Meanwhile we’re still full EU members with all our trade deals and our EU rights and our veto intact.However I also know the EU lawyers are also looking through the treaty to try and legally put the gun to UK's head so they hold the trump card without waiting for the UK to gain this advnatage.
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| Quote: DHM "If the Tory government don't activate article 50 the next prime minister in 2019 or even sooner, will be Nigel Farage.'"
Maybe ,....but there seems to be a growing realisation of what demons have been unleashed....and there is a growing online petition at about 3 million now....and growing by the minute. Just saying again like.
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| Quote: nantwichexile "Maybe ,....but there seems to be a growing realisation of what demons have been unleashed....and there is a growing online petition at about 3 million now....and growing by the minute. Just saying again like.'"
Of course there is, there would have been one from the brexit camp were they the wrong side of the 50% mark as the arogant establishment expected, however brexiters would immediately be told to pipe down and accept the 'once in a generation' vote which was made clear before Thursday many times by cameron and the eu top brass. just saying like.
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| Nantwich appears to have blown a fuse. Conspiracy theories, left wing rumours, failure to accept democracy, mind reading what the key players are thinking, banning pensioners from voting, having other referendums until the remainers win!
IMO Cameron's decision to resign was correct as having talked up a post Brexit economic disaster he bears some responsibilty for markets being jittery and his position is untenable. However I think his wanting to stay until the party conference is more about trying to stop Boris from replacing him so I think he should go sooner as he will be something of a lame duck now.
The new PM should be from the Brexit camp as the rest of the Remainers are not comitted to the cause or like May put their careers over their principles. The new PM will then trigger article 50 when they are good and ready and this should be made clear to the demanding Eurocrats. There is no requirement to envoke this immediately.
We have just had a democratic referendum and a winner has been declared. For the sore losers to demand another one because they didn't win shows a worrying lack of respect for democracy worthy of the EU itself.
Cameron and the government should have had a plan in place in the event of a Brexit vote and in my view it was arrogant and negligent not have done so. It was the PM and the government who called the referendum not an election so the responsibility for post Brexit cannot be the Leave leaders unless they are given the positions of power. I think therefore that the main offices of state have to change to accomodate the Leavers.
An all party steering group should be formed to include non political professionals to set out the objectives and monitor the negotiations. Our embassies and consulates should be tasked with opening up talks with the key movers in potential export markets outside the EU and this should start straight away.
It is in the interests of both the UK and the EU to work out a fair trading arrangement as we have a unique status as the largest market for the rest of the EU.
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| Nadhim Zahawi MP said on one of the rolling news stations today that in his opinion it will be two years before article 50 was even activated and he is a Tory brexiteer.
So four more years of free movement still on that timetable and four more years before any financial dividend hits the UK treasury.
Drag it out a bit longer and we can have a General Election first with a whole new mandate, which the new Prime Minister might actually welcome.
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| Boris Johnson and Michael Gove are already stalling on Article 50
They aren't in any hurry.
But the EU are. They want the UK out ASAP.
This is all very amusing.
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| Quote: tvoc "Nadhim Zahawi MP said on one of the rolling news stations today that in his opinion it will be two years before article 50 was even activated and he is a Tory brexiteer.
So four more years of free movement still on that timetable and four more years before any financial dividend hits the UK treasury.
Drag it out a bit longer and we can have a General Election first with a whole new mandate, which the new Prime Minister might actually welcome.'"
It won't go 4 years the EU will not allow it - and if Scotland gets independence then the Labour has no chance of getting elected.
FWIW I don't think Boris will be the next PM it will be either May or Gove.
Corbyn is unelectable on one point alone - Nuclear disarmament - you can't have the main man who would not press the button.
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