Its proving so. Shouldn’t we really think the other way. Cas and Wakey have existed for nigh on 100 years, and in that hundred years never, ever, even in their ‘glory days’ attracted that many people. Why would we assume that is suddenly going to change?

As for the clubs you mention, well yes Green Bay is a pretty small area, but the Packers aren’t a green bay only club are they. They aren’t a small parochial club surrounded by the bigger boys, they just happen to be named after a small town. Its only relatively recently that they stopped splitting their games with Milwaukee and is the team for the entirety of Wisconsin (pop.6m),

There is about 250k people in Lens, and about 550k in the metro area, and only one club. Im not sure that classes as small.

Hoffenheim on the other hand are a small regional club in Germany, which nobody had heard of for the first 60 years of their life. They were an amateur club languishing in the lower reaches of the German football pyramid until a German billionaire decided to make them his plaything. Im not sure that A) that’s a business model Wakefield or Cas should chase, and B) how many billionaires there are who want to throw money at a small northern mining town.

I did note some differences of context, but Cas have certainly proved able to nudge into 5 figure crowds in the not-too-distant past. 8-9k would be plenty to average to sustain a SL club at the moment. With 80 or 90k people in the immediate area to target, that doesn't seem imnpossible.

Their record home gate is over 25k. (albeit a very long time ago)

10k is the figure. It’s the magic figure at which as club should be able to sustain itself, right now and spend the cap. But that figure is going to and should change. It will go up and then what? Cas have never averaged 80% of that figure even at their best a few years ago, they are closer to 50% of that figure. They have a crumbling ground which they need to move out of, whether that be now or in a few years, they don’t have the money to improve it, they have a limited scope for sponsorship and even smaller for corporate.

They are being left behind.

In isolation you could probably argue about Cas potential ( I wouldn’t agree but I see the argument), but they aren’t in isolation. A lot of the people who are moving to the surrounding areas do so because of the easy commute to Leeds, so they are in competition with Leeds for them. Not to mention all those places you listed are in Wakefield, so Wakefield are going to go for them as well.

The argument you are putting forward, if we were being particularly pragmatic, is that with a fair wind, a bit of luck, a bit of success, Cas might be able to grow their attendances in the next couple of years to a level which they could possibly be sustainable in the short-term if they spent below the cap and cut their cloth. A few years after that we are going to be in the exact same position.

Whats going on at Wigan. Rats leaving a sinking ship www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/rugby-league/22306797

Whats going on at Wigan. Rats leaving a sinking ship www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/rugby-league/22306797

But Leeds and Wigan are not interchangeable examples. Sure, they both enjoy excellent support and are located within the best catchment areas for youth development. But only one of them got all the plaudits this week: the one with scant recent success, an exodus of their best players and a gorilla for a coach. Bizarre.

When was the last season that Castleford and Wakefield averaged >10k a game during a season? has it ever actually happened? We need to be realistic about what is possible

The Wigan production line, as good as it is, cant be endless. There has to come a point when they feel the effects of all these departures. Tomkins,S will be the interesting one to replace.

Another going to the NRL, they are not even creaming the crop anymore m.skysports.com/article/rugbyleague//8681209

Another going to the NRL, they are not even creaming the crop anymore m.skysports.com/article/rugbyleague//8681209

The success of the likes of Ellis, Graham and Burgess (plus the relative changes in the salary cap) are making NRL sides look towards SL for forwards. They would have gone for them previously had the cap been in their favour in the past.

There's no sign at all of NRL clubs looking to SL for backs. Even Tomkins would be seen as a huge gamble. If and when someone like Tomkins goes to the NRL and is a big success, other NRL clubs would undoubtedly follow.

Its exactly the same reason why SL clubs are still hunting around NRL reserve grades for players.