FORUMS FORUMS






RLFANS.COM
Celebrating
25 years service to
the Rugby League
Community!
  
FORUMS > Leeds Rhinos > Can Leeds qualify for the Top 4?
70 posts in 6 pages 
<<   PREV  NEXT   >>
RankPostsTeam
International Chairman18060No
Team
Selected
JoinedServiceReputation
Feb 200223 years
OnlineLast PostLast Page
Jun 2023Jun 2023LINK
Milestone Posts
0
100
Milestone Years
0510 1520 2530
Location
Signature
icons077e_files/5454-3678dentheman-msnicons.jpg
Your job is to say to yourself on a job interview does the hiring manager likes me or not. If you aren't a particular manager's cup of tea, you haven't failed -- you've dodged a bullet.:icons077e_files/5454-3678dentheman-msnicons.jpg



Next two fixtures will determine where the season goes from here - a loss at Salford would really put the pressure on - I just can't see Leeds losing there, then I thought they would not lose at Cas.

Hull have a massive pack that may just run over us - lose that as well then I think the top 8 is curtains given they still have Wigan x 2, Warrington, Saints & Hull away before the split.

RankPostsTeam
Player Coach4938
JoinedServiceReputation
Oct 200519 years
OnlineLast PostLast Page
Jul 2018Mar 2017LINK
Milestone Posts
0
100
Milestone Years
0510 1520 2530
Location
Signature
18261_1413138907.jpg
:d7dc4b20b2c2dd7b76ac6eac29d5604e_18261.jpg



The fall from grace is absolutely staggering when you think about it.

Leeds have never failed to appear in the play-offs.

Just 9 games into this season and they cannot realistically qualify.

The club must be wishing for the return of the Top 8 play-off system which rewarded their previous mediocrity oh so well, and particularly so in 2011 and 2012.

RankPostsTeam
International Chairman18060No
Team
Selected
JoinedServiceReputation
Feb 200223 years
OnlineLast PostLast Page
Jun 2023Jun 2023LINK
Milestone Posts
0
100
Milestone Years
0510 1520 2530
Location
Signature
icons077e_files/5454-3678dentheman-msnicons.jpg
Your job is to say to yourself on a job interview does the hiring manager likes me or not. If you aren't a particular manager's cup of tea, you haven't failed -- you've dodged a bullet.:icons077e_files/5454-3678dentheman-msnicons.jpg



They have lost games they should have won against less well financed teams but they were the exception - now these defeats have become the norm. McDermott looks like a defeated man who doesn't possess the skill set to deal with this situation.

RankPostsTeam
Moderator31932
JoinedServiceReputation
Dec 200123 years
OnlineLast PostLast Page
Nov 2024Nov 2024LINK
Milestone Posts
0
100
Milestone Years
0510 1520 2530
Location
Signature
438_1551258406.jpg
"If you start listening to the fans it won't be long before you're sitting with them," - Wayne Bennett.:d7dc4b20b2c2dd7b76ac6eac29d5604e_438.jpg

Moderator


When was the last time Leeds finished below 8th?? 1996?

RankPostsTeam
International Chairman18060No
Team
Selected
JoinedServiceReputation
Feb 200223 years
OnlineLast PostLast Page
Jun 2023Jun 2023LINK
Milestone Posts
0
100
Milestone Years
0510 1520 2530
Location
Signature
icons077e_files/5454-3678dentheman-msnicons.jpg
Your job is to say to yourself on a job interview does the hiring manager likes me or not. If you aren't a particular manager's cup of tea, you haven't failed -- you've dodged a bullet.:icons077e_files/5454-3678dentheman-msnicons.jpg



Yes

RankPostsTeam
International Chairman7594
JoinedServiceReputation
Dec 200123 years
OnlineLast PostLast Page
May 2021May 2021LINK
Milestone Posts
0
100
Milestone Years
0510 1520 2530
Location
Signature
8_1434361123.jpg
When my club didn't exist it was still bigger than yours:d7dc4b20b2c2dd7b76ac6eac29d5604e_8.jpg



Quote: Bullseye "When was the last time Leeds finished below 8th?? 1996?'"


Yep. And League points per game that year were higher then (0.55) than they are now (0.44).

RankPostsTeam
International Chairman7594
JoinedServiceReputation
Dec 200123 years
OnlineLast PostLast Page
May 2021May 2021LINK
Milestone Posts
0
100
Milestone Years
0510 1520 2530
Location
Signature
8_1434361123.jpg
When my club didn't exist it was still bigger than yours:d7dc4b20b2c2dd7b76ac6eac29d5604e_8.jpg



Quote: William Eve "Interesting graph.

I think some of the earlier SL regular season ladders gave the appearance of being more competitive than they were in reality. I'm referring to the top teams playing each other three times instead of twice. Therefore the closing of the points gap between 1st and 8th may be more pronounced in recent seasons than indicated.
'"


Exactly right. They don't really show the distribution across each range either. It's the boundaries between top4 / top8 and top8 / the rest that are important in that plot. 2003 and 2014 for instance, which were Halifax and London's respective years of total collapse. Take those away and for those years it's a much more competitive picture.

What we really need is something that takes into account who's beating who, not just how many wins they're getting. Step forward rlBradley Terryrl.

This is handy for things like, for the sake of argument, wine tasting. Which do you prefer, A or B. A beats B. B beats C. But then C beats A. No clear winner. Which one's the best if this situation and situations like it keep repeating over thousands of comparisons?

Bradley Terry gives us a score for a team / wine / whatever based on the relative strengths of who is beating who, and what that opponent had achieved up to that point. Winning games doesn't matter so much as who you are winning against. Beating Leeds last year would have got you a lot of "ability score" in this model. This year, not so much.

There is no unit for ability of course, the numbers it chucks out only make sense when you compare them against the ability scores of other teams. It's just a means of comparison rather than an absolute declaration. But the closer these scores all are then the more competitive the league is.

So if we find out what the standard deviation is (lower is better) for each year...



A steady improvement since the introduction of the salary cap (98? 99? I forget). Which is weird, because everyone knows the salary cap doesn't work and needs to be scrapped. (Unless we assume the league got more competitive when Bradford stopped battering everyone, which I'm willing to accept...)

That spike for 2014 is almost entirely down to how bad London were. It would have been a lot bigger if they hasn't beaten Leeds at Headingley that year.

FWIW, 2016's ability scores from this look like this atmhttp://i.imgur.com/0UMq5Sg.png" >

Quote: William Eve "
Having said that, if Leeds current form is to continue for another couple of games then it's the Middle 8's for them for sure. A defeat away to Salford this weekend may well be enough to turn that prospect into a certainty.'"


Still not mathematically certain, but psychologically it might be. At least 8 or 9 wins from the remaining 14 are required. Ten or eleven will see them in the S8s for sure. Any less and it's dangerous territory. Problem is, that's a win rate two and a bit times higher than that achieved so far.

RankPostsTeam
Player Coach22777
JoinedServiceReputation
May 200618 years
OnlineLast PostLast Page
Jun 2020Feb 2018LINK
Milestone Posts
0
100
Milestone Years
0510 1520 2530
Location
Signature

//www.pngnrlbid.com [quote="bUsTiNyAbALLs":9q9d2t35]Do not converse with me you filthy minded deviant.[/quote:9q9d2t35] [quote="vastman":9q9d2t35]My rage isn't impotent luv, I'm frothing at the mouth actually.[/quote:9q9d2t35]:



the salary cap was introduced in 2001 for the 2002 season so theres not really that correlation. Its probably more likely (on that limited data) that the introduction of the play-offs in 1998 was the catalyst.

Id also ask how, if last year 2014 was down entirely to how bad London were, why we dont see a similar spike in 2005 with the terrible Leigh side?

as regards the middle 8s, i think there is something of an over-estimation here. Lets be honest, if, starting this week, Leeds won every other game, we would go in to the last game needing a win, but would anyone think we had gone in to it in outstanding form? in even good form? Theres no getting around it, 8 wins out of 14 isnt difficult in SL. We sneak 2 of those close games we have lost and its the form we are showing now. Which is terrible.

RankPostsTeam
International Chairman7594
JoinedServiceReputation
Dec 200123 years
OnlineLast PostLast Page
May 2021May 2021LINK
Milestone Posts
0
100
Milestone Years
0510 1520 2530
Location
Signature
8_1434361123.jpg
When my club didn't exist it was still bigger than yours:d7dc4b20b2c2dd7b76ac6eac29d5604e_8.jpg



Quote: SmokeyTA "the salary cap was introduced in 2001 for the 2002 season so theres not really that correlation. Its probably more likely (on that limited data) that the introduction of the play-offs in 1998 was the catalyst.
'"


Every reference I can find, apart from one nonsensical academic paper which suggests '97, says it was '99.

I genuinely don't recall myself. Both Wikipedia and the RFL site are sadly lacking on this, but that does seem about right to me. Also, it might be true to say that the salary cap proper started when you say because there were those years when Wigan were allowed special dispensation to allow for their existing contracts. And nobody else needed that. Or was allowed it, depending on how that actually went down.

Besides, whilst it slowly moves from around 2000 the great leap forward happens after 2005.

Quote: SmokeyTA "
Id also ask how, if last year 2014 was down entirely to how bad London were, why we dont see a similar spike in 2005 with the terrible Leigh side?
'"


Fair question. You might also ask the same thing about 2003 with Halifax.

The primary reason is that it was way more predictable then. This system is very much dependant on the relative strengths of who is being beaten by the team in question. Back then, top teams beat bottom teams. Top teams beat mid table teams. The old school Big 4 beat everyone, for the most part, and then took points off each other. Exceptions here and there, but largely not. Many fewer exceptions overall than now. I can prove this, and I will if you want me to.

This is exactly what the plot is showing. Despite that spike from London, it is lower than all seasons prior to and including the very year you're pointing out.

In 2014 London were disproportionally bad compared to everyone else that season, including Bradford.

London's sole win was from beating a 6th placed Leeds that year. Solid result. Second from bottom Bradford also beat Leeds. But they also had wins against Wakefield (twice), London (twice), Warrington, Wigan and Hull FC. Not a bad set of scalps overall, and from all over the table. Obviously a terrible season, but both in the table and by this method way better than London.

In 2005 Leigh beat a mid table team (London) and got a draw against another (Hull) and also beat Wakefield, and did so at a time when beating teams from outside your station was a little rarer than it is today. It's one of the worst runs in SL history but it's better than London's. The important point is that it happened in the context of a worse league overall.

In 2003 Halifax beat London, and in their first game. And then never won or drew again. That is easily the worst losing run in SL history. A more abject collapse than London 2014 for sure. London 2003, who Halifax beat, finished fifth. They were ten points behind fourth place Saints.

Leeds 2014, who London 2014 beat, finished the regular season in sixth. They were six points behind first placed Wigan.

All twelve team seasons too.

Halifax and Leigh may well have been terrible. But the league overall was terrible, hence the higher overall scoring in the output of this system. The league was not terrible in 2014. Bradford weren't that great but London happened to equal the worst performance in the league's history, and that made the gap between them and next worst huge. It stands out when determining standard deviation in a sample size of twelve, albeit one built from around knocking on for 180 games overall.

FWIW, I don't deny at all that the play offs are a factor here. They absolutely are. I have always been in favour of a grand final and associated play off system for precisely this reason. But the cap is a huge factor too, and whilst I can't particularly prove it I would certainly argue that it was the primary one.

Quote: SmokeyTA "
as regards the middle 8s, i think there is something of an over-estimation here. Lets be honest, if, starting this week, Leeds won every other game, we would go in to the last game needing a win, but would anyone think we had gone in to it in outstanding form? in even good form? Theres no getting around it, 8 wins out of 14 isnt difficult in SL.
'"


Not impossible by any means. As you say, it's every other game at this point, though I do think 8 wins is at the lower end of what you're going to need. Doable though. I believe more likely today for a bottom of the table side than at any other point in SL history, and certainly more probable for you than for Huddersfield.

RankPostsTeam
International Chairman7594
JoinedServiceReputation
Dec 200123 years
OnlineLast PostLast Page
May 2021May 2021LINK
Milestone Posts
0
100
Milestone Years
0510 1520 2530
Location
Signature
8_1434361123.jpg
When my club didn't exist it was still bigger than yours:d7dc4b20b2c2dd7b76ac6eac29d5604e_8.jpg



FWIW, this system only measures wins and losses. For draws I mark both teams as a win. It doesn't take points difference into account at all. I prefer it for pairwise comparisons, cos a win is a win is a win.

There are plenty of other systems that are used in US college sports for figuring out which of these teams in a league of over a hundred, some of whom have never even heard of each other never mind played, make it to the play-offs. These do take points difference into account. rlKen Massey'srl is popular, and whilst I've got a method for it I've never tried doing something like this with it.

RankPostsTeam
Player Coach20628
JoinedServiceReputation
Mar 200916 years
OnlineLast PostLast Page
Aug 2016Aug 2016LINK
Milestone Posts
0
100
Milestone Years
0510 1520 2530
Location
Signature
44480_1390845286.jpg
It's been fun.:d7dc4b20b2c2dd7b76ac6eac29d5604e_44480.jpg



Leeds will make top 4 easy, can't see Batley, Leigh, London, Bradford getting above you.

RankPostsTeam
Player Coach22777
JoinedServiceReputation
May 200618 years
OnlineLast PostLast Page
Jun 2020Feb 2018LINK
Milestone Posts
0
100
Milestone Years
0510 1520 2530
Location
Signature

//www.pngnrlbid.com [quote="bUsTiNyAbALLs":9q9d2t35]Do not converse with me you filthy minded deviant.[/quote:9q9d2t35] [quote="vastman":9q9d2t35]My rage isn't impotent luv, I'm frothing at the mouth actually.[/quote:9q9d2t35]:



Quote: vbfg "Every reference I can find, apart from one nonsensical academic paper which suggests '97, says it was '99.

I genuinely don't recall myself. Both Wikipedia and the RFL site are sadly lacking on this, but that does seem about right to me. Also, it might be true to say that the salary cap proper started when you say because there were those years when Wigan were allowed special dispensation to allow for their existing contracts. And nobody else needed that. Or was allowed it, depending on how that actually went down.'"
2001 Wigan were spending 3.2m on wages. That would be nearly 5m today. They were given 1 years grace at 2.3m in 2002. by 2003 everyone was spending 1.8m. Which as much as anything simply highlights just how far we have gone backwards.

Quote: vbfg "Besides, whilst it slowly moves from around 2000 the great leap forward happens after 2005.'"
there is another correlation you may have missed which correlates far better and seems a far more obvious reason that passes occams razor.

from 1997, the bottom team in SL scored 9, 4, 10, 8, 11, 0, 12, 5, and then in 2005 we relegated not only the terrible Leigh, but also the 2nd worst side in SL Widnes and replaced them with a side who had money and spent it and built. Les Catalans entered the league and stopped the perpetual merry-go-round of clubs not big enough for SL replacing each other and swapping players.

in 2006 Les Catalans finished bottom with a record points total of 16 which was more points than Widnes got in 11th the previous year.

Quote: vbfg "Fair question. You might also ask the same thing about 2003 with Halifax.

The primary reason is that it was way more predictable then. This system is very much dependant on the relative strengths of who is being beaten by the team in question. Back then, top teams beat bottom teams. Top teams beat mid table teams. The old school Big 4 beat everyone, for the most part, and then took points off each other. Exceptions here and there, but largely not. Many fewer exceptions overall than now. I can prove this, and I will if you want me to.

This is exactly what the plot is showing. Despite that spike from London, it is lower than all seasons prior to and including the very year you're pointing out.

In 2014 London were disproportionally bad compared to everyone else that season, including Bradford.

London's sole win was from beating a 6th placed Leeds that year. Solid result. Second from bottom Bradford also beat Leeds. But they also had wins against Wakefield (twice), London (twice), Warrington, Wigan and Hull FC. Not a bad set of scalps overall, and from all over the table. Obviously a terrible season, but both in the table and by this method way better than London.

In 2005 Leigh beat a mid table team (London) and got a draw against another (Hull) and also beat Wakefield, and did so at a time when beating teams from outside your station was a little rarer than it is today. It's one of the worst runs in SL history but it's better than London's. The important point is that it happened in the context of a worse league overall.

In 2003 Halifax beat London, and in their first game. And then never won or drew again. That is easily the worst losing run in SL history. A more abject collapse than London 2014 for sure. London 2003, who Halifax beat, finished fifth. They were ten points behind fourth place Saints.

Leeds 2014, who London 2014 beat, finished the regular season in sixth. They were six points behind first placed Wigan.

All twelve team seasons too.

Halifax and Leigh may well have been terrible. But the league overall was terrible, hence the higher overall scoring in the output of this system. The league was not terrible in 2014. Bradford weren't that great but London happened to equal the worst performance in the league's history, and that made the gap between them and next worst huge. It stands out when determining standard deviation in a sample size of twelve, albeit one built from around knocking on for 180 games overall.

FWIW, I don't deny at all that the play offs are a factor here. They absolutely are. I have always been in favour of a grand final and associated play off system for precisely this reason. But the cap is a huge factor too, and whilst I can't particularly prove it I would certainly argue that it was the primary one.

Not impossible by any means. As you say, it's every other game at this point, though I do think 8 wins is at the lower end of what you're going to need. Doable though. I believe more likely today for a bottom of the table side than at any other point in SL history, and certainly more probable for you than for Huddersfield.'"
'"
]
i wont argue that the SC hasnt had an effect. But that effect has been to bring the top down. It hasnt brought the bottom up. Players arent leaving the big clubs and going to the lesser clubs because of cap issues. The best are simply leaving.

RankPostsTeam
International Star7579
JoinedServiceReputation
May 201114 years
OnlineLast PostLast Page
Nov 2024Nov 2024LINK
Milestone Posts
0
100
Milestone Years
0510 1520 2530
Location
Signature

:



Quote: SmokeyTA "2001 Wigan were spending 3.2m on wages. That would be nearly 5m today. They were given 1 years grace at 2.3m in 2002. by 2003 everyone was spending 1.8m. Which as much as anything simply highlights just how far we have gone backwards.'"


£900k off our wage bill from one season to the next and we still remained competitive. How much £ in salaries did Leeds let go of last year? icon_biggrin.gif

Agree with your points on Catalan though, they've been a great addition to Super League.

RankPostsTeam
Player Coach4938
JoinedServiceReputation
Oct 200519 years
OnlineLast PostLast Page
Jul 2018Mar 2017LINK
Milestone Posts
0
100
Milestone Years
0510 1520 2530
Location
Signature
18261_1413138907.jpg
:d7dc4b20b2c2dd7b76ac6eac29d5604e_18261.jpg



Quote: Wigg'n "£900k off our wage bill from one season to the next and we still remained competitive. How much £ in salaries did Leeds let go of last year? Nothing, Nada, Zilch.

Like Radlinski at Wigan, they played only for the love of their club icon_smile.gif

RankPostsTeam
International Chairman7594
JoinedServiceReputation
Dec 200123 years
OnlineLast PostLast Page
May 2021May 2021LINK
Milestone Posts
0
100
Milestone Years
0510 1520 2530
Location
Signature
8_1434361123.jpg
When my club didn't exist it was still bigger than yours:d7dc4b20b2c2dd7b76ac6eac29d5604e_8.jpg



Was there an earlier date when the 50% rule first came in? That might explain the difference.

There are certainly references to a cap of some kind existing prior to the dates you mention, and not speculating about its coming. rlTalking about its effectsrl. rlHererl as well. And rlthisrl, which Google picked up '99, has Caisley talking about it too (para 19) .

I don't doubt you, what you're saying is starting to ring a bell (my initial comment you picked up on was an aside really, and my interest in the analysis in the first place was comparing with the NRL rather than looking at the effects of the cap). It's just odd that there are references to it before then.

70 posts in 6 pages 
<<   PREV  NEXT   >>
70 posts in 6 pages 
<<   PREV  NEXT   >>



All views expressed are those of the author and not necessarily those of the RLFANS.COM or its subsites.

Whilst every effort is made to ensure that news stories, articles and images are correct, we cannot be held responsible for errors. However, if you feel any material on this website is copyrighted or incorrect in any way please contact us using the link at the top of the page so we can remove it or negotiate copyright permission.

RLFANS.COM, the owners of this website, is not responsible for the content of its sub-sites or posts, please email the author of this sub-site or post if you feel you find an article offensive or of a choice nature that you disagree with.

Copyright 1999 - 2024 RLFANS.COM

You must be 18+ to gamble, for more information and for help with gambling issues see https://www.begambleaware.org/.



Please Support RLFANS.COM


5.0947265625:5
RLFANS Recent Posts
FORUM
LAST
POST
TOPIC
POSTER
POSTS
45m
Recruitment rumours and links
Wires71
3513
Recent
Transfer Talk V5
Trebor1
424
Recent
ALL NEW 49ERS ERA LEEDS UTD THREAD
Trebor1
2545
Recent
DoR - New Coach - Investor & Adam - New signings
Jake the Peg
3700
Recent
Memorable Games
Jake the Peg
12
Recent
Film game
karetaker
5152
FORUM
LAST
VIEW
TOPIC
POSTER
POSTS
1m
England vs Samoa
NickyKiss
135
1m
Transfer Talk V5
Trebor1
424
1m
Pre Season - 2025
giddyupoldfe
119
2m
Ground Improvements
Slugger McBa
123
2m
BORED The Band Name Game
Boss Hog
63012
3m
Planning for next season
Cokey
170
3m
Squad contract dates
Trojan Horse
12
3m
Film game
karetaker
5152
4m
ALL NEW 49ERS ERA LEEDS UTD THREAD
Trebor1
2545
4m
Rhinos Ladies
MjM
8
FORUM
NEW
TOPICS
TOPIC
POSTER
POSTS
TODAY
Will Brough gone
vastman
2
TODAY
The Brick Stadium ownership update
Azul
8
TODAY
Rhinos Ladies
MjM
8
TODAY
Squad contract dates
Trojan Horse
12
TODAY
Paladin Sports
orangeman
5
TODAY
Magic Weekend
Wollo-Wollo-
2
TODAY
War of the Roses
matt_wire
16
TODAY
Dual Reg
PopTart
2
TODAY
Vagana
Scarlet Pimp
10
TODAY
2025 Kit
Wigan Bull
6
TODAY
2025 merchandise
18th Man
12
TODAY
NBR Does Smithers have a hangover
Smithers99
7
TODAY
Its all gone a bit quiet
BigTime
17
TODAY
England Beat Samoa To Take Test Series
RLFANS News
1
TODAY
McMeekan
Trojan Horse
13
TODAY
Englands Women Demolish The Welsh
RLFANS News
1
TODAY
Lee Kershaw
Big lads mat
9
TODAY
2025 Shirt
The Whiffy K
11
TODAY
Home Shirt 2025
MattyB
1
TODAY
Uele contract extension
Khlav Kalash
5
TODAY
Squad for Match 2 v Samoa
rubber ducki
6
TODAY
2024/25 out of season mind occupier 2
Boss Hog
11
TODAY
Sky tv deals
karetaker
7
TODAY
2024/25 out of season mind occupier 1
Fantastic Mr
29
TODAY
New Kit
karetaker
62
TODAY
Memorable Games
Jake the Peg
12
TODAY
Hybrid rugby
moto748
11
TODAY
Pre Season - 2025
giddyupoldfe
119
NEWS ITEMS
VIEWS
England Beat Samoa To Take Tes..
618
England's Women Demolish The W..
558
England Beat Samoa Comfortably..
860
Operational Rules Tribunal –..
667
IMG-RFL club gradings released..
956
Wakefield Trinity Win Champion..
1448
Hunslet Secure Promotion After..
1687
Trinity Into Play Off Final Af..
1952
Wigan Warriors Crowned Champio..
1533
York Valkyrie Win Back to Back..
1801
Hunslet Book Relegation Play O..
2166
Penrith Panthers Secure Fourth..
1729
Wigan Humiliate Leigh For Gran..
1812
Hull KR Survive Warrington Fig..
1951
Warrington Wolves Break Saints..
2126