Quote:
tvoc "The UK came out of the recession in the 4th quarter of 2009 under the last government. It was making steady progress right up until the point the coalition government introduced their 'unavoidable' emergency budget.
Since then the figures have gone into decline with each subsequent forecast for growth being downgraded. The economy has effectively flatlined for the past 6 months and needs to pick up.
The outcome of the 'gamble' currently being taken with the economy is far from a given. Last year I predicted (on here) disappointing growth would be the order of the day for a few years to come despite the (6% - as shown in the graph) spare capacity after the longest and deepest recession in living memory - but unfortunately I'm no economist.'"
You missed off the following heading from your copy of the published graph
“Economy grows by 0.5% in Q1 2011”
And it was not all bad news as the following was also published in the same report.
“Gross domestic product grew by 0.5 per cent in the latest quarter, unrevised from the growth previously published. GDP in the first quarter of 2011 is now 1.8 per cent higher than the first quarter of 2010.
Output in the service industries rose by 0.9 per cent in the latest quarter. The rise this quarter was due to transport, storage & communication increasing by 3.0 per cent; business services & finance rising by 0.6 per cent; government & other services rising by 0.6 per cent; and distribution, hotels and catering rising by 0.8 per cent.
Inventories rose by £1.4 billion on the quarter.
In the first quarter of 2011 the trade deficit in real terms decreased to £5.7 billion compared with £11.5 billion in the previous quarter.
Exports of goods and services rose by 3.7 per cent and imports of goods and services fell by 2.3 per cent.
The GDP implied deflator rose by 2.8 per cent compared with the first quarter of 2010.
Compensation of employees at current prices rose by 1.3 per cent in the latest quarter and is 1.9 per cent higher than the first quarter of 2010.
Total gross operating surplus of corporations rose by 1.4 per cent and is now 6.5 per cent higher than the same period last year.”
You conclude that the sole reason for the disappointing growth figures to be the Coalition’s cuts. As you say you are not an economist and neither am I. However most economists would have included the corresponding increase in commodity costs as being a major factor in restricting growth as the following index clearly shows.
Description: Commodity Price Index, 2005 = 100, includes both Fuel and Non-Fuel Price Indices:
Date Value
"Feb-2009","98.29"
"Mar-2009","100.18"
"Apr-2009","104.18"
"May-2009","114.88"
"Jun-2009","128.16"
"Jul-2009","123.42"
"Aug-2009","132.72"
"Sep-2009","127.54"
"Oct-2009","134.81"
"Nov-2009","140.92"
"Dec-2009","140.93"
"Jan-2010","146.11"
"Feb-2010","142.42"
"Mar-2010","148.88"
"Apr-2010","157.96"
"May-2010","146.48"
"Jun-2010","143.37"
"Jul-2010","143.94"
"Aug-2010","148.36"
"Sep-2010","150.19"
"Oct-2010","159.38"
"Nov-2010","164.69"
"Dec-2010","174.67"
"Jan-2011","181.91"
"Feb-2011","189.82"
"Mar-2011","199.32"
"Apr-2011","208.41"
A recent analysis from the OECD shows that public spending in Britain, as a percentage of GDP will fall by slightly less than the average across the 17 countries in the eurozone in the two years to 2012.
To put matters in perspective for the period 2011/2012 Darling had proposed cuts of 14 billion against Osborne’s 16 billion.