| FORUMS > Castleford Tigers > Odds stacked against us? |
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10/1 with a 16 point start seems a good bet to me. We do need to actually sign some more players if we are to be in with a shout though!
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with a 14,000,000+/1 chance of winning the lottery id say your money is better spent there than on Cas winning the SL.......i heard there is more chance of Jade Goody and Stephen Gateley doing a duet with Elvis on the moon, than Cas wining the league but my mum has told me a million times to stop exagerating.
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| Quote: danny boy1 "
Bradford 16/1
'"
That alone shows how much they know. |
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| Quote: Sandal Wild Cat "That alone shows how much they know.'"
sykes for man of steel. |
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The odds on Warrington are generous.
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I wouldn't mind a fiver on us making the top six, but wouldn't put money on us coming top.
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What do the bookies know that we don't, another couple of good signings and maybe we could prove them all wrong!'"
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i think the bookies know we are not going to make a couple of good signings,wrighty has told us all the way forward we will be doing it on the cheap for the next few years and living in hope that some of the very good young potential that we have got at the club can make the step up and be our next stars but unfortunatly i think the big money buys have well and truley ended for our club,but on a brighter note warrington look well worth a tenner.
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| Quote: 12noon "I wouldn't mind a fiver on us making the top six, but wouldn't put money on us coming top.'" i'd have a fiver on cas and wakey finishing top 8 and i'd have a lot more on bradford finishing bottom 4 and they won't get shut of mac, they can't afford it. |
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| Quote: MR BROWN "i'd have a fiver on cas and wakey finishing top 8 and i'd have a lot more on bradford finishing bottom 4 and they won't get shut of mac, they can't afford it.'"
The signing of Danny Sculthorpe to replace Sam Burgess is inspirational, shows the Bulls under McNamara have visions of grandeur!
Think I might have a flutter with 16 points start to finish top, that looks like the best bet and would have given me £100 had I placed the same bet last season with a tenner stake! |
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| Quote: Sandal Wild Cat "That alone shows how much they know.'"
Quote: Sandal Wild Cat "What do the bookies know that we don't?'"
The key thing to remember is that betting odds are not the odds the bookmakers think there is of something happening – it's about money. Odds are decided on the basis of potential loss on a pay-out: if there's a lot of people betting on something, the odds shorten not because that something happening becomes more likely, but because the potential loss to the bookmaker, if it happens and they have to pay out, is greater. So they reduce the odds to reduce the potential pay-out. |
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| Quote: tb "The key thing to remember is that betting odds are not the odds the bookmakers think there is of something happening – it's about money. Odds are decided on the basis of potential loss on a pay-out
Correct, it's pure mathematics - nothing to do with the bookies opinion of the form teams and everything to do with the opinion of their punters. Many punters are stupid, if they were not bookies wouldn't exist, others bet with caution. The bookies odds have nothing to do with actual playing strength and reasonable assumptions of who will finish where, they are there purely to offset risk.
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| Quote: vastman "Correct, it's pure mathematics - nothing to do with the bookies opinion of the form teams and everything to do with the opinion of their punters. Many punters are stupid, if they were not bookies wouldn't exist, others bet with caution. The bookies odds have nothing to do with actual playing strength and reasonable assumptions of who will finish where, they are there purely to offset risk.'"
I agree that many punters are stupid, but at this point in time (pre-season) it's not down to pure maths, because when the odds are first set, bets will not have been placed. Bookies have panels of so called experts who take a stab at it, taking into account last season's form, signings that the club have made etc etc. then once the punters have started placing bets on this or that team, the bookies do start to be influenced by the bets that have been placed and the odds reflect this. As you say if someone places a large bet on a team and they stand to lose a fortune if the bet comes up, the bookies will offset the risk. |
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| Quote: danny boy1 "I agree that many punters are stupid, but at this point in time (pre-season) it's not down to pure maths, because when the odds are first set, bets will not have been placed. Bookies have panels of so called experts who take a stab at it, taking into account last season's form, signings that the club have made etc etc. then once the punters have started placing bets on this or that team, the bookies do start to be influenced by the bets that have been placed and the odds reflect this. As you say if someone places a large bet on a team and they stand to lose a fortune if the bet comes up, the bookies will offset the risk.'"
Correct , otherwise all would start at 14-1 |
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| ahaaaaa look at Bradford
and look and signing replacing burgess with sculthorpe  |
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| Quote: Judd Judd "ahaaaaa look at Bradford
and look and signing replacing burgess with sculthorpe ![]()
And our odds have doubled with the resigning of Clayton
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