Quote: vastman "Correct, it's pure mathematics - nothing to do with the bookies opinion of the form teams and everything to do with the opinion of their punters. Many punters are stupid, if they were not bookies wouldn't exist, others bet with caution. The bookies odds have nothing to do with actual playing strength and reasonable assumptions of who will finish where, they are there purely to offset risk.'"
I agree that many punters are stupid, but at this point in time (pre-season) it's not down to pure maths, because when the odds are first set, bets will not have been placed. Bookies have panels of so called experts who take a stab at it, taking into account last season's form, signings that the club have made etc etc. then once the punters have started placing bets on this or that team, the bookies do start to be influenced by the bets that have been placed and the odds reflect this. As you say if someone places a large bet on a team and they stand to lose a fortune if the bet comes up, the bookies will offset the risk.
