The ECJ will be dealt with in tranche one - the trade option is as much a benefit to the EU as it is to the UK - so it can be sold on that basis - especially if there is a genuine effort to carve out a new deal

I don’t think there can realistically be continuation of existing terms without a continuing role for the ECJ in those areas; it isn’t a standalone issue that can be dealt with in the first tranche unless that first tranche is more comprehensive than I think you mean.

Trade in goods will be fine I imagine (although less alignment will mean more friction) but I think they’ll want to limit access to their markets for services in the first part of the deal. Both to show ASAP that exiting isn’t a cake and eat it option, and because it is area where national governments see an opportunity to grow their domestic sector.

Of all the Brexiteer delusions, this is one that I can't believe still persists despite the facts repeatedly being presented.

The EU accounts for about 48% of British exports. The UK accounts for about 6% of exports from the EU27. Their export businesses would be upset to lose us. Our export businesses would be devastated.

Have you replaced your wooden garden fence panels with wrought iron?
Build them high. Build them tall.

Johnson and his party are totally tied to Brexit so whatever the outcome and the lies made people will actually now see what it means to their lives be it good or bad. They cannot hide behind the unknown of Brexit.

Time will tell - EU exports accounts for 7% GDP - trade with the EU has fallen by 9% in the last 16 years so perhaps the scaremongering isn't really quite accurate? Our reliance on the EU is falling - no bad thing.

I think that 7% is just for goods or services. For both together, it’d be roughly double.

I think that you ought to look at our trade with the EU as a % of all of our exports (it's around 45%), it's a HUGE figure.
Our imports from the EU, taken as a percentage of their exports, although similar in pure cash terms is a single figure percentage point of all of their exports.
All of the nonsense about the figures being roughly equal and that they need us as much as we need them was always a distortion of the figures.
I'm sure that in time, we will find new markets for some of our products and we may also find better "deals" on some of the products that we import but, our trade with the EU hasn't been built up to current levels by accident.
The geographical factors, with the ability to source and supply goods accross the channel quickly and efficiently is THE reason for the level of trade that we currently do, not to mention the finance industry, which has benefitted massively form being part of the EU "club", something which can only go in one direction, now that we have found the exit.
The sun will keep on rising in the morning and the planet keep on turning and whilst we may have "taken back control", we have also scored a huge economic own goal.

We can still import and export from the EU, just there will now be costs where before there weren't costs. That means reduced margins and reduced competitiveness compared to traders from other countries. It's similar to if a tax had been introduced.

Now if instead of Brexit, this had just been government introducing a tax (which would raise revenue that could go to fund public services), we would no doubt have been listening to lectures about how 'businesses run tight margins and can't afford these costs - it will just mean consumers end up paying more', from the same type of people who like to shrug off Brexit and say 'it is never as bad as they say it will be'.

But in the end, until Brexit has happened it's all speculation on the future. Once it has happened the effects will take place. There will be a time lag until the impact works its way through, which will give the pro-Brexiters a window with which to say 'see, the sky hasn't fallen in', but then as costs start to mount up, investment diverts out of the UK to the EU, prices rise, they will have to write a new narrative about why times were already hard and are getting harder.

No doubt it will be due to the BBC, feminists, climate protestors, the labour party, the establishment etc, anything but Brexit or the Tory government!

A long read, but a line-by-line explanation of what the future holds - and yes Brexiteers, the world of international trade is a complicated place; simplistic soundbites and 2 second understandings from a white nationalist post you read on Facebook don't help in the real world: https://www.politics.co.uk/blogs/2020/0 ... son-s-trad

A long read, but a line-by-line explanation of what the future holds - and yes Brexiteers, the world of international trade is a complicated place; simplistic soundbites and 2 second understandings from a white nationalist post you read on Facebook don't help in the real world: https://www.politics.co.uk/blogs/2020/0 ... son-s-trad

Tell us more about your detailed understanding of trade and the points of detail where you differ from his analysis.

You'll be waiting a long time...

I tend to find I have better things to do with my time than discuss with left wing socialists who peddle politics of envy and anti progress and democracy, it is nice you guys have a place to play pretend, enjoy.

So what you're saying is you've got nothing to offer other than that right wing trope of questioning the patriotism of people who challenge your, let's be honest, somewhat simplistic views.

I'd ask you though, since you lazily brought it up, who or what do you think we're envious of (I assume I fall into the 'left wing socialists' bucket which seems to be anyone from John Major on left)?