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"You are working for Satan." [i:2886spie]Kirkstaller[/i:2886spie] "Dare to know!" [i:2886spie]Immanuel Kant[/i:2886spie] "Do not take life too seriously. You will never get out of it alive" [i:2886spie]Elbert Hubbard[/i:2886spie] "We are all in the gutter, but some of us are looking at the stars." [i:2886spie]Oscar Wilde[/i:2886spie] [url=http://thevoluptuousmanifesto.blogspot.co.uk:2886spie][color=#4000FF:2886spie]The Voluptuous Manifesto[/color:2886spie][/url:2886spie] – thoughts on all sorts of stuff.:d7dc4b20b2c2dd7b76ac6eac29d5604e_1977.jpg



Quote: GUBRATS "Not forgetting ' chicken ' Dave

Not sure exactly how Nigel could have contributed

Not too upset that Boris and Gove are out of the frame'"


Farage certainly was the 'head' of a large group in the European parliament. In the aftermath of the vote, he stated that the Tory Brexiteers would not just push him into touch, but that he would use that position to take charge of Brexit negotiations.

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Enron was an indicator of how huge institutions are allowed to play fast and loose with billions of investors capital - there were lessons in that collapse that were not acted on by the US Government; although one patsy did go to jail. The subsequent semi-collapse of the western financial system, headlined by the US sub-prime lending market but not solely confined to that, was another opportunity to reform - and the OP is right that instead, the institutions involved reduced slightly in number, but were bailed out by a Washington/Wall Street cabal, and have by now returned to business as usual; much the same happened here, with financial institutions that were bailed out with tax payers money, now paying out $billions in dividends and bonuses. I'm not sure there's a viable way to unpick the system now - it's been allowed to evolve into something so complex and interdependent that many major economies now rely on amazingly clever people who don't actually make or produce anything.

As for Brexit - the FT has this to say today:

"Brexit has unleashed a different sort of currency depreciation, according to modern economics, one that is less likely to encourage domestic investment for exports, is more likely to raise inflation and will be more painful for hard-pressed families. As David Miles, a former MPC member, told MPs soon after the referendum: “I am not terribly optimistic that, if sterling now stays at the current level, we should expect a marked increase in exports from the UK and a significant reduction in the current account deficit”.

Hardly the land of milk and honey that Gove, Boris (he never believed it anyway) and Nige promised?

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Quote: LeighGionaire "With this in mind will the millions of working class Brexit voters become the fall guys, blamed for any collapse and castigated for the crimes of the financial elites who flooded the world with toxic debts?'"


Yes, and you don't even need that in mind. Where the hell else are the newspapers and populists going to turn once blaming immigrants is a busted flush? The rich? LOL.

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Quote: vbfg "Yes, and you don't even need that in mind. Where the hell else are the newspapers and populists going to turn once blaming immigrants is a busted flush? The rich? LOL.'"

It'll be the low paid who need handouts to get by day to day and the people on sick or the disabled. Oh wait. Haven't the Tory government already done that?

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The fall in the pound is making inward investment in commercial property, etc much more attractive. When the immediate jitters subside, chances are there will be lots on capital inflows.

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Quote: LifeLongHKRFan "It'll be the low paid who need handouts to get by day to day and the people on sick or the disabled. Oh wait. Haven't the Tory government already done that?'"


You're a cheat pretending to have a bad back. Get a proper job. etc.

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[img:2penstlp]http://img301.imageshack.us/img301/5994/saints7sk.gif[/img:2penstlp] "...the biggest boor, the most opinionated pompous bigot that frequents these boards and he is NOT to be taken at all seriously. ":187.jpg



Quote: Dally "The fall in the pound is making inward investment in commercial property, etc much more attractive. When the immediate jitters subside, chances are there will be lots on capital inflows.'"



That's just not true. In fact, the reverse is true. Property funds are either closing (not allowing investors to withdraw money), or significantly writing down their value.

rlhttps://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/jul/08/commercial-property-prices-brexit-clauses-ubsrl

I'm keeping completely level and calm on these boards, because positions are so entrenched that it takes almost nothing to make people start shouting and insulting. But it is essential for the future of our country that we don't embrace the sort of post-truth irrationality that afflicts, for example, large parts of Republican America, where any evidence which contradicts what they want to believe (for example, Obama's birth certificate), is dismissed as some sort of conspiracy, or simply ignored.

This is no longer a matter of opinion, (albeit expert opinions versus the opinions of liars and frauds during the campaign). What is happening now is fact. Commercial property investment funds are crashing because nobody with money to invest, no institutions, no banks, expects the market to do anything but drop, because Brexit means there will be far less demand for commercial property in the UK - after all, if you're looking to place a new firm or store, then why would you spend cash now on a country which is going to be outside the European market, and which already has far less money to spend because of the devaluation of the pound?

Similarly, one report has the number of job vacancies advertised across a range of recruitment sites as halving in the last two weeks. Halving. That's a massive reduction in recruitment. While committed Brexiteers are still talking about "Project Fear", and promising endless summer (and in one case I know, crowing about how a possible trade deal with New Zealand's 3m consumers is a worthwhile reward for ending free trade with 500m Europeans), the fact is that the economics are already going down the toilet, and we've not even invoked Article 50 yet. So this damage is actually being caused by people taking precautions. Imagine the scale of the carnage when Article 50 is invoked, and fearful precautions become appalled certainty?

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Quote: Roy Haggerty "That's just not true. In fact, the reverse is true. Property funds are either closing (not allowing investors to withdraw money), or significantly writing down their value.

rlhttps://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/jul/08/commercial-property-prices-brexit-clauses-ubsrl

I'm keeping completely level and calm on these boards, because positions are so entrenched that it takes almost nothing to make people start shouting and insulting. But it is essential for the future of our country that we don't embrace the sort of post-truth irrationality that afflicts, for example, large parts of Republican America, where any evidence which contradicts what they want to believe (for example, Obama's birth certificate), is dismissed as some sort of conspiracy, or simply ignored.

This is not longer a matter of opinion, (albeit expert opinions versus the opinions of liars and frauds during the campaign). What is happening now is fact. Commercial property investment funds are crashing because nobody with money to invest, no institutions, no banks, expects the market to do anything but drop, because Brexit means there will be far less demand for commercial property in the UK - after all, if you're looking to place a new firm or store, then why would you spend cash now on a country which is going to be outside the European market, and which already has far less money to spend because of the devaluation of the pound?

Similarly, one report has the number of job vacancies advertised across a range of recruitment sites as halving in the last two weeks. Halving. That's a massive reduction in recruitment. While committed Brexiteers are still talking about "Project Fear", and promising endless summer (and in one case I know, crowing about how a possible trade deal with New Zealand's 3m consumers is a worthwhile reward for ending free trade with 500m Europeans), the fact is that the economics are already going down the toilet, and we've not even invoked Article 50 yet. So this damage is actually being caused by people taking precautions. Imagine the scale of the carnage when Article 50 is invoked, and fearful precautions become appalled certainty?'"


I have always respected your opinions. That is a great post.

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Quote: Roy Haggerty "

Similarly, one report has the number of job vacancies advertised across a range of recruitment sites as halving in the last two weeks. Halving. That's a massive reduction in recruitment. While committed Brexiteers are still talking about "Project Fear", and promising endless summer (and in one case I know, crowing about how a possible trade deal with New Zealand's 3m consumers is a worthwhile reward for ending free trade with 500m Europeans), the fact is that the economics are already going down the toilet, and we've not even invoked Article 50 yet. So this damage is actually being caused by people taking precautions. Imagine the scale of the carnage when Article 50 is invoked, and fearful precautions become appalled certainty?'"


Roy , the consequences of losing free trade to 500m Europeans will be replaced by what though ? , tariffs I assume , and I'd assume Similarily those 500m Europeans will be subject to similar tariffs to deal with us

A net balance ?

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[img:2penstlp]http://img301.imageshack.us/img301/5994/saints7sk.gif[/img:2penstlp] "...the biggest boor, the most opinionated pompous bigot that frequents these boards and he is NOT to be taken at all seriously. ":187.jpg



No. Not a balance. Something like 50% of our trade is with EU countries, so our exports will become more expensive for customers, while the things we have to import will become even more expensive.

Meanwhile, no EU country has that sort of proportion of trade with us. Essentially, we'll take a hit on 50% of our trade, while nobody else (except Ireland) will take anything close to that sort of hit.

This is why the Brexit line about them being desperate for a trade deal was misleading. Of course their exporters will want a trade deal, but their overall economies won't need a trade deal to anything like the extent we will need one. That's a recipe to be stuffed, as we will be much more desperate than they will.

It's also worth noting that there are lots of firms in EU countries who would like very much to have the business which UK firms currently have. They're going to lobby their governments to put up tariffs so that they can force UK firms out of EU markets.

When I heard the idiots like Farage spinning their simplistic lies about foreigners desperate to give us a better deal, I was appalled. The whole reason we joined in the first place was because our economy was shrivelling outside the free trade area, because the French and German firms competing with UK firms were only to happy to erect the highest barriers possible!

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Quote: Roy Haggerty "That's just not true. In fact, the reverse is true. Property funds are either closing (not allowing investors to withdraw money), or significantly writing down their value.

rlhttps://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/jul/08/commercial-property-prices-brexit-clauses-ubsrl

'"


That's why I said when current jitters subside! If the pound stays low there will be good opportunities for overseas investors in a few months time. That said, I think the market peaked a few months back - rents being demanded too high, tenants leaving and new tenants not being found. Also, in London the tower crane test makes it looks like we have peaked - they are everywhere - which normally signals a big market fall.

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Quote: Roy Haggerty "No. Not a balance. Something like 50% of our trade is with EU countries, so our exports will become more expensive for customers, while the things we have to import will become even more expensive.

Meanwhile, no EU country has that sort of proportion of trade with us. Essentially, we'll take a hit on 50% of our trade, while nobody else (except Ireland) will take anything close to that sort of hit.

This is why the Brexit line about them being desperate for a trade deal was misleading. Of course their exporters will want a trade deal, but their overall economies won't need a trade deal to anything like the extent we will need one. That's a recipe to be stuffed, as we will be much more desperate than they will.

It's also worth noting that there are lots of firms in EU countries who would like very much to have the business which UK firms currently have. They're going to lobby their governments to put up tariffs so that they can force UK firms out of EU markets.

When I heard the idiots like Farage spinning their simplistic lies about foreigners desperate to give us a better deal, I was appalled. The whole reason we joined in the first place was because our economy was shrivelling outside the free trade area, because the French and German firms competing with UK firms were only to happy to erect the highest barriers possible!'"


About 47% (realistically c. 44%) of UK exports are to EU countries. That proportion was 55% at the turn of the century. It's importance is waning. That's where the opportunity lies, already USA, Canada, China, NZ, Australia etc have made noises about signing free-trade agreements with us when we leave the EU. We have a trade deficit with the EU but a surplus with the rest of the world, which again suggests opportunity. Now is a great time to leave and if we go through with it within 10 years we'll reap rewards. The big issue is not leaving but uncertainty due to the political vacuum. Sooner we negotiate and create certainty the better for the real economy and the markets. Simple as that.

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[quote="King Monkey":30st820n]Maybe a spell in prison would do Graham good. At least he'd lose his virginity.[/quote:30st820n]:d7dc4b20b2c2dd7b76ac6eac29d5604e_18919.jpg



Here's a very interesting read...

www.forbes.com/sites/stevekeen/2 ... 5cdf9446f8
Here's a very interesting read...

www.forbes.com/sites/stevekeen/2 ... 5cdf9446f8


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"If the American people knew tonight, exactly how the monetary and banking system worked, there would be a revolution before tomorrow morning." -Abraham Lincoln:995.gif



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In the next few months the EU face a massive problem with the Italian banks. They have billions of euros of bad debt, some of this was left over from the last banking trauma.
We live in extremely interesting but frightening times. Lots of financial and political commentators have pontificated over our EU exit. My main concern is we are in uncharted waters, so we certainly have no previous experience of any outcomes.
I voted to remain, as I suspected it's already costing me a great deal of money. I visit the USA several times a year to visit my family. I am in the USA at the moment the exchange rate is the worst I have ever experienced. Also my retirement investments are mostly in industrial property this value has dropped substantially.
I can't even hold the main culprits to account, Johnson and Farrage have walked away from the mess they have created .

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