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FORUMS > The Sin Bin > No More Arguments: Austerity is Working!
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Quote: Lord Elpers "Meaningless to you because it shows the recovery denying pessimists to be wrong - Meaningful to the majority who see a brighter future.'"


Its meaningless because it quantifies nothing, I would guess that confidence has been the highest since 2007 a number of times this month already, unless you back it with real figures then it means nowt.

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Quote: JerryChicken "I hope you are right, however stats on earnings are, I believe, still largly derived from quarterly surveys of a selected range of businesses by the ONS, my business was one of them and indeed one of the questions was "Are you more optomistic" which in itself is pretty meaningless because you wouldn't be investing your own money, your house, and the family horse on something that you weren't optomistic with in the first place.

It always puzzled me why the ONS relied on a survey targeted at one specific employee within the business (a random sample but one that your stats had to be based on constantly after that) and not genuine monthly income tax returns, presumably the ONS never had access to those records and presumably HMRC still don't give them access - so we're stuck with a system that measures whatever you feel like putting on the form without ever having to prove what you've just written but with the threat over your head that if you don't send it back then it was a criminal offence.

Rather amusingly the person in my business that they selected as a sample was my brother and of course we always told the truth about his earnings and optomism.'"


The GfK-NOP consumer confidence index has been running since 1974 and is accepted and used as a barometer to show how the country is really feeling. It has been used in the past to highlight the public's worries during the recession.

You question the stats on earnings but again they are the same stats with the same methodology that Labour and the government critics have been using since 2010 to show earnings were below inflation. To now suggest these stats somehow are not vaild shows an argument that is also not valid.

If your business (or your brother's) is seeing not the benefits of the recovery and is still struggling, then it is in the minority of cases according to the stats and I hope things pick up for you. However if as you imply your brother has been pessimistic in completing his form when in fact he could have been optimistic, then this would mean the real situation is even better than I reported!

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Quote: Big Graeme "Its meaningless because it quantifies nothing, I would guess that confidence has been the highest since 2007 a number of times this month already, unless you back it with real figures then it means nowt.'"


The GfK-NOP index has been running since 1974 and has been used since then to show the public's real feelings and show how optimistic or pessimistic they are feeling. As results are compared it gives a guide to show trends and has been accepted by business and government. As I said - meaningless to you perhaps but not to the majority.

If you had read all of my post you would have seen I did quote real figures which backed up the Gfk-NOP index.

Here is a few more facts for you.

1. The lastest quarterly rise in GDP of 0.8% takes us within a wisker (0.6%) of its pre-crisis peak.
2. If you exclude the declining North Sea oil and gas we are already 0.4% above the pre-crisis levels.
3. If you exclude financial services (which has seen a 21% drop in activity) the GDP is about 2% up on its pre-crisis peak.
4. The double-dip recession never happened let alone a triple one as spun by Ed 'I gave away our gold' Balls-Up.

Points 2 & 3 above show the economy is recovering across the board as it has almost overcome the huge handicap of an ongoing major decline in North Sea and Financial Services revenues which were no fault of this government. That it has taken longer than predicted is really understandable given that since 2010 we have also had the perilous euro crisis and an EU in recession to contend with as well.

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Quote: Lord Elpers "The GfK-NOP consumer confidence index has been running since 1974 and is accepted and used as a barometer to show how the country is really feeling. '"


There are many who would say the same about the Jeremy Vine Show

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Quote: cod'ead "There are many who would say the same about the Jeremy Vine Show'"


More like the Jeremy Kyle Show since Thatcher and successive governments since have gone out of their way to create and nurture the underclass that they can now target this countries woes upon.

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Quote: Lord Elpers "The GfK-NOP consumer confidence index has been running since 1974 and is accepted and used as a barometer to show how the country is really feeling. It has been used in the past to highlight the public's worries during the recession.

You question the stats on earnings but again they are the same stats with the same methodology that Labour and the government critics have been using since 2010 to show earnings were below inflation. To now suggest these stats somehow are not vaild shows an argument that is also not valid.

If your business (or your brother's) is seeing not the benefits of the recovery and is still struggling, then it is in the minority of cases according to the stats and I hope things pick up for you. However if as you imply your brother has been pessimistic in completing his form when in fact he could have been optimistic, then this would mean the real situation is even better than I reported!'"


My only point was that the ONS earnings stats always have been based on voluntary declaration of earnings of a random sample of employees with no requirement to prove them, the only threat made with the quarterley form being that if you don't return it you will be prosecuted - that in itself was always enough to get my back up.

The forms could be completed with entirely made-up numbers and no-one would ever know - quite why they couldn't just ask HMRC what the personal income tax receipts were like this month is beyond me.

As always I'm sceptical about all politicians and their lies but when you know that their "facts" rely on nothing more than unsubstantiated submissions from random samples then you learn to ignore them.

More worryingly in connection with my post a couple of pages ago was the announcement yesterday that people on JSA will not be allowed to turn down an offer of employment made on a zero hours contract and will be sanctioned if they do, proof that the zero hours issue is here for the long term as a viable and approved method of employment, fine if you're not affected (I'm not and no-one in my family is) but not a good place for anyone to find themselves if they have any plans for owning a house, a loan for a car, credit card, etc, etc.

As for my business, sold it in 2007 when the market was about to fall off the cliff, now work for the organisation that I sold out to and thinking about it as I don't have a contract of employment I suppose I am on a zero hour basis too... icon_lol.gif

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Quote: JerryChicken "My only point was that the ONS earnings stats always have been based on voluntary declaration of earnings of a random sample of employees with no requirement to prove them, the only threat made with the quarterley form being that if you don't return it you will be prosecuted - that in itself was always enough to get my back up.

The forms could be completed with entirely made-up numbers and no-one would ever know - quite why they couldn't just ask HMRC what the personal income tax receipts were like this month is beyond me.

All polls are based on samples which depend on the public being truthful. They do not pretend to be a science but show trends which usually prove to be reasonably accurate. Fortunately the majority of the British public are honest.

Quote: JerryChicken "As always I'm sceptical about all politicians and their lies but when you know that their "facts" rely on nothing more than unsubstantiated submissions from random samples then you learn to ignore them.

As against the lies of people like your brother.

Quote: JerryChicken "As for my business, sold it in 2007 when the market was about to fall off the cliff, now work for the organisation that I sold out to and thinking about it as I don't have a contract of employment I suppose I am on a zero hour basis too...

So when you state "my business" what you don't really mean that.

Is your brother still being selected to fill in the forms?

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Gone a bit quiet about the nonsense you made up about Barristers and the failings of austerity haven't you?

Busy with your other username?

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Quote: SmokeyTA "Gone a bit quiet about the nonsense you made up about Barristers and the failings of austerity haven't you?'"


Nothing more to say. I have stated my views and my practice doesn't do criminal work so not an expert in this area of law like your goodself.

However I note you have gone a bit quiet regarding all the good news of the George Osborne led recovery

Quote: SmokeyTA "Busy with your other username?'"


Which would that be then?

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Quote: Lord Elpers "Nothing more to say. I have stated my views and my practice doesn't do criminal work so not an expert in this area of law like your goodself.

'"


That's great. I challenged you as knowing bugger all about the criminal bar, and now you have admitted it.

Ironic that, given that you asked me to prove I had some knowledge of the area.

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Quote: The Video Ref "That's great. I challenged you as knowing bugger all about the criminal bar, and now you have admitted it.

Ironic that, given that you asked me to prove I had some knowledge of the area.'"


No. I do not believe I admitted to "knowing bugger all about the criminal bar". I said my legal practice does not do criminal work. Quite another matter.

And in any case these forums allow different opinions to be expressed. You have yours and I have mine.

Your inaccuracy and lack of precision rather indcates that your legal knowlege is recycled stuff from the internet -not a qualification accepted by the Bar Standards Board last time I looked.

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Elpers, like all Tories, admits nothing, casts assertions and can't back them up nor will he/she answer direct questions.
It's sad that the system has let these kind of people down.
Even sadder is they don't realise it has happened to them.

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Quote: Lord Elpers "
As against the lies of people like your brother.

So when you state "my business" what you don't really mean that.

Is your brother still being selected to fill in the forms?'"


A couple of very strange responses there which don't really make any sense.

If the ONS are still writing to the Ltd Company then I wouldn't be surprised but since its six years since we wound it up then they may have realised by now that the mail is not being returned.

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Here is another one for you Elpers:

A law firm spent 869 hours reviewing of CCTV on a serious case, only to be told that, owing to the perverse way criminal legal aid works, not a minute of the time was chargeable owing to the fact the evidence was provided on CD:

www.lawgazette.co.uk/5041180.art ... =GAZ090514

And this is why decent lawyers, in both of the main branches of the profession (solicitors and barristers) are leaving criminal law.

Soon it will be nothing more than a playground for trust-fund kids and those with wealthy spouses.
Here is another one for you Elpers:

A law firm spent 869 hours reviewing of CCTV on a serious case, only to be told that, owing to the perverse way criminal legal aid works, not a minute of the time was chargeable owing to the fact the evidence was provided on CD:

www.lawgazette.co.uk/5041180.art ... =GAZ090514

And this is why decent lawyers, in both of the main branches of the profession (solicitors and barristers) are leaving criminal law.

Soon it will be nothing more than a playground for trust-fund kids and those with wealthy spouses.


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